Tata Motors – How far will it fall? Is it a value buy?

Tata Motors had been a major underperformer within the auto space. With each swing of fall investors have been thinking this is it but only to see it fall further! So, even if you think it is a value buy at every fall you are only losing your capital.

It is therefore best to await and get positive price confirmation before committing your hard earned capital to a stock like this. A similar story was witnessed even in pharma stocks when at each fall everyone simply kept on losing money. However, we published our bullish outlook on Pharma only recently after seeing faster retracement above the last falling segment and when the important resistance levels were taken out. This makes a lot of sense as you are getting a value stock but with a strong technical confirmation.

Similar strategy should be adopted even for Tata Motors, Now look at the below chart which is published in our daily equity research report – The Financial waves short term update

Tata Motors Daily chart:

Tata Motors Hourly chart:

Wave analysis:

Tata Motors a leading global automobile manufacturing company has shown a massive downfall by 33% since the start of the year 2018. From the high made near 450 levels the stock has failed to show any signs of positive retracement and currently the stock is trading near its 52 week low.

As shown on daily chart, prices are moving in downward sloping channel. Prices are moving in the form of Complex correction pattern and the last set of correction in the form of wave z is ongoing. If carefully look at the RSI indicator we can see that it is moving in a range also the overbought zone for RSI has now changed to 60 from where prices recently witnessed a down move.

A shown on hourly chart, prices are forming Bow- Tie Diametric pattern in which contraction is seen in initial legs and currently expansion is ongoing.  As per wave prospective, wave ……….. is completed on upside near …… levels and currently wave ………. is ongoing on downside.

In short, trend for Tata Motor remains negative. Break below …….. levels can take the prices southward towards …….. levels or lower levels. Avoid creating any long positions unless we see close above ………. where wave ……… completed. This stock has drastically failed to live up to investor’s expectations and it is best to avoid catching a low here.

The above clearly shows the strategy you can follow to invest in so called value buying. It is best to let stocks run its course and when it is done we will know by seeing a faster retracement above the last falling segment.

So what are the key levels on stocks like Tata Motors for value buying?

Charting tool: Plot your chart on Tata Motors

Get access to “The Financial Waves short term update” and “Multibagger research report” to have a complete list of stocks that looks good right from short term trading to long term investments. Know more here

Dabur: Multibagger giving 29% returns in just over 3 months!

Dabur has been another major outperformer from our Multibagger research and it has given nearly 29% returns in just over 3 months. The study used to identify such stock is Time cycles combined with Elliott wave analysis.

Identifying the stock that has capability to give promising returns that too when Midcap index is way below their life time high levels is not an easy task. We use various methods to stay objective and identify such jewels that has huge potential not based on fundamentals but a strong technical structure. Dabur was one such stock which we published on 18th April in our “Multibagger research report”. The stock was trading near the zone of 345 – 350.

See yourself below chart of Dabur which helped us to be bullish at 345 – 350 levels and the stock touched intraday high of nearly 444.85 in today’s session. That is a whopping 28% – 29% return in just over 3 months.

Dabur weekly chart: (Anticipated on 18th April 2018)

Dabur weekly chart: Happened

The above research about Dabur was published on 18th April 2018 in our “The Financial Waves Multibagger update”.

(Here is a part of research taken from the Multibagger research report.)

Multibagger stock recommendation: Dabur

Buy Price – 340 – 350

Time Horizon – 1 – 2 years

Investment – 5% of capital

Target price – ………. levels

Stoploss – 250

Elliott Wave analysis: (Anticipated on 18th April 2018)

Dabur India Ltd is into FMCG sector with Market Capitalization of over Rs 61,900 Crore. The major reason to pick up this stock is that it has been into a long bull trend since 2003. The overall structure of this stock is explained below.

Elliott wave perspective: As shown in weekly chart of Dabur, from 2012 to mid-2016 prices moved higher from the levels of 92 to 316 levels in the form of primary wave …… which is more than 240% increase? After the strong Bull Run this stock was contained within a consolidation and prices drifted lower from the high of 316 levels to 265 levels in the form of wave ……..

108 weeks cycle, channeling technique: and much detailed explanation given in the Multibagger research report.

In a nutshell, various indicators like Time cycle, Exponential Moving Average, Elliott wave counts and channel technique suggests that we can expect this stock to rally towards ….. levels over next 1 to 2 years with 250 as very important support.

Happened: As mentioned prices exhibited a sharp move on upside and has performed amazingly well touching intraday high of 444.85 providing nearly 29% return in short span of time. This clearly shows even in this market when only a few midcap stocks are participating we have been able to identify a stock having potential to give amazing returns.

Create your portfolio of stocks that have potential to give 80% to 100% returns over 1 to 2 years. However, one has to take a systematic and disciplined approach and book partial profit for capital protection. Subscribe now to “Multibagger research report “ here

Nifty beyond 11000! What is next?

Nifty has managed to cross beyond psychological 11000 mark yet again! This has been exactly the way it was expected.

See yourself the below gist picked up from the monthly research report – “The Financial Waves Monthly update” published way back on 7th June 2018.

Neo wave pattern: If you look carefully Nifty has not done anything in 2018. The year started near 10550 levels and prices are still hovering near the trading zone of 10550 – 10800 levels. This shows there is an ongoing distribution for many months. Predicting the sideways pattern is most challenging as there are a few equally probable scenarios. Only when the pattern is near completion we get high conviction trade setup. It is therefore prudent to keep evaluating the ongoing pattern under formation. For now we are assuming Diametric pattern is continuing since there was expansion in earlier legs and contraction so far. Also wave f size has been similar to that of wave b shown in Figure 3. Ongoing wave g on upside can take prices towards 10900 levels. It will be a tough call to make whether new highs will be touched or not but we can expect more of a double top type of scenario where wave g will terminate near 11000 – 11100 zone ideally. We will keep a close watch on momentum as and when prices approach that range and mention it in our short term updates.

Nifty daily chart – (anticipated in monthly update on 7th June 2018)

Nifty daily chart – (Happened)

Nifty daily chart – Gann Projection levels (showed on 7th June 2018)

Anticipated – It will be a tough call to make whether new highs will be touched or not but we can expect more of a double top type of scenario where wave g will terminate near 11000 – 11100 zone ideally. We will keep a close watch on momentum as and when prices approach that range and mention it in our short term updates.

Happened: The above charts are self-explanatory that shows how markets have moved. We have been expecting such trend and anticipated it more than a month back. The only change is in momentum. The move on upside is euphoric maybe to suck in the maximum retail participants. I am not trying to catch a top unless the support levels are broken but this is the time to be alert again!

I turned bullish when majority were expecting break below 10500 levels again based on Time cycles and other Neo wave methods.

Gann projections – If you look at the 3rd chart carefully you can see the Gann projection given as 11078 and the high touched by Nifty is 11078.30 to be precise. So will this Gann projection work again?

So what is next from here? Is this up move going to continue towards life time highs or are we going to see the distribution again!

Imagine the power of trading if you know which tools to use and you can also time it well, For years I have worked on various patterns, methods and cycles and finally drilled down to these methods that has helped me to forecast the turns so accurately – Elliott – Neo wave, Hurst’s Time cycles and Gann projection levels! Learn these methods yourself in the upcoming two days training seminar on 21st and 22nd July in Mumbai, Hotel Radisson. Only a few seats left, ACT NOW – Know more

Get access to the daily equity research report and the monthly update to get holistic view on markets and what should be the trading strategy. We have been able to capture the important turning juncture time and again and prices are now at the levels where things are turning euphoric! Is it time to be against the crowd or there is more steam left? Get access here

How to become a trader? What are the steps to follow?

I am sure many who are new to trading would be confused on where to start as there are plethora of information and methods available. When I started my career I had the very same question but unfortunately no one to guide or advice on how to move forward.

So I ended up reading anything and everything I came across involving large number of techniques mentioned in various books. Slowly and steadily I realised there has to be a few methods that appeal to you most that you have to build up on.

My journey started learning the most basic methods of technical to the most advanced concepts of Elliott wave, Neo wave, Hurst’s Time cycles and Gann projections.

I know the pain of not knowing how to proceed and have worked hard without finding a mentor to suggest corrective path. It is then I decided to impart whatever I have learned in the simplistic way for anyone who wants to walk the similar path of becoming from novice to expert trader.

So here is one basic method that I found amazingly helpful in increasing the accuracy. Below is my latest webinar where I discussed a few methods in detail:

It does not matter if you are not aware about basic technical analysis. If you are attending my seminar on 21^st – 22^nd July 2018 in Mumbai on Elliott wave, Neo wave and Husrt’s Time cycles, I will ensure to share across enough materials for someone to be aware about what is technical analysis even before they attend the training. To Register Contact us here or Email us helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com

Cheers,

Ashish Kyal, CMT

P.S. – I hope the above is atleast providing some assistance in direction of systematic and scientific approach to trading

Nifty: How to trade Neo wave Diametric pattern?

Diametric pattern – Understanding Nifty medium term pattern by applying the concept of Advanced Elliott wave – Neo wave theory to forecast the next trend.

For successful trading it is very important to understand the overall price pattern. Unless the pattern is clear it is best to avoid the trade.

Below shows how a text book Neo wave Diametric pattern markets are exhibiting

We are closely keeping on tab on Nifty’s price structure along with time taken by each segment to know the pattern under formation. This helps us in forming different strategies so as to leverage from ongoing pattern.

For option traders it is most important to know that whether current trend is going to be sharp or will it take more time to move higher?

Below is the part of research taken from “The Financial Waves Short Term Update” which indicates that there is high probability of Nifty forming Diametric pattern which is 7 legged pattern defined under Neo wave.

Nifty daily chart Diametric pattern:

Wave analysis:

Nifty has closed below the immediate support of 10700 on downside and serious selloff has been seen in stocks from Midcap and Smallcap space.

It is very important for you to understand the overall pattern under formation so that atleast you are aware that prices are near the cusp. Few days back we published an article mentioning that Is Nifty top in place again! You can read it here

As shown on daily chart, prices are forming a Diametric pattern. This pattern is recognised in Neo wave as a 7 legged correction and can take a form of either Bow- Tie structure or a Diamond shaped structure. In the above chart we can see a Diamond shaped Diametric pattern.

Each legs are corrective and we are currently in wave g. As of now it is too early to conclude that the entire wave g is over and a major top is formed but it definitely indicates that 2018 is not going to be the market for investors. However, for traders there will be ample opportunity as volatility is going to be high providing big swings. To encash the next big trend on markets you need to combine this Neo wave pattern with Time cycles.

It is not a 100% accurate theory. There are times when things get challenging but when the pattern is near completion we get a very high conviction trade setup just before the big move can happen.

Trust me there will be many trades where you will gain and lose little but only a few big trades will make up for all the hard work and efforts that are put in.

So what is the next big trend and how to capitalize on the ongoing move?

Subscribe now to “The Financial Waves Short Term Update” which covers Nifty and 3 stocks with in-depth research. For more information visit Pricing Page

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Tatamotors serious selloff! How far will it fall?

Tatamotors had been a major laggard and this stock has continued to capitulate for many months now. Anyone who tried catching a fall under the impression how far will it go is already in losses!

During such kind of medium term negative trend the best strategy is to use any pullback as shorting opportunity rather than trying to catch a low. SBI, Sunpharma, BHEL, Relcap and many more are classic examples that will make you rethink – How far will it fall!!!

Below is the chart of Tatamotors picked up from our daily research report – The Financial Waves short term update

Tata Motors Daily chart:

Below is part of the research picked up from the daily morning research report

Elliott Wave analysis:

In our earlier update for Tata Motors dated 27th April 2018 we mentioned that, “Trend for Tata Motors is bearish as of now. A move below 325 is expected to take prices towards 310 levels as long as 342 is intact on the upside.” BANG ON! Tata Motors made an intraday low near 305 and closed near 310 in yesterday’s trading session.

As shown in the daily chart of Tata Motors, prices continued moving southwards within the downward sloping red channel. The prices maintained its downward trend with no positive attempt of an up move. As per wave perspective, wave y (blue) of third standard correction is ongoing. This keeps the bias for Tata Motors negative. Also this is the worst performing stock within the automobile space and interestingly it is trading at 52 week’s low. So avoid catching a falling knife as any pullback will be short lived.

As shown in the hourly chart (shown in actual research report), wave iii of c is ongoing. The prices can be seen approaching the channel’s support line near …… levels. As long as the 30 period moving average near ……. is protected the trend will continue to remain bearish. A pullback towards 315 levels should be used as shorting opportunity for a target of ….. or lower.

Tata motors made a high of 315.65 in today’s session and reversed back from there exactly as expected. It is best to now trail stop towards the cost level near 315.65 so that position becomes risk free and keep riding the trend for the mentioned target in the daily research report.

“The Financial Waves short term update” is a daily research report published in the morning with trade setup on Nifty, stocks having applied Elliott wave, Time cycles and various technical analysis methods. Subscribe NOW under summer offer and we will set you up for complimentary reports as well. Here is the best deal that you can get – Intraday / Positional advisory with free research reports at discounts upto 50%. See the various offers below:

How to apply Fibonacci studies with technical indicators?

In this webinar you can see application of different technical indicators, Fibonacci retracement projections, applied on charts. Visit https://www.wavesstrategy.com for detailed Elliott wave, Neo wave analysis on #stocks, #commodity, #forex markets

Nifty scenario analysis – Applying Bollinger Bands®, Moving averages, Wave theory!

Nifty has been moving violently between important levels but has managed to protect the support and resistance all the while.

Nifty had a positive start yesterday and prices touched intraday high of 10279 levels. However, post 1 pm the selling pressure started building up and there was a sharp fall towards 10110 levels. This was a fall of nearly 170 points from the highs in short span of time. The fall was across the board with high beta indices also losing more than 1%. The selling emerged after the announcement of China imposing additional tariff on U.S. products worth 50 bln USD. The short term news events are resulting into random and volatile movement but prices are still trading within a range on net basis.

Nifty 60 mins chart: Preferred counts

The below research is picked up from daily equity report – The Financial Waves short term update

Following is the Nifty scenario analysis:

Scenario 1 – This is our preferred scenario as the majority of stocks are still lying near the support areas and the stocks like SBI, Tata Motors, BHEL that were leading the fall had shown faster retracement above the last falling segment. So there is possibility that Nifty has not completed wave g but it is in its final stages and move back above the high of 10280 will confirm this.

As shown on hourly chart, Nifty is back towards its Bollinger bands support and it failed to close above the same during the day. Also the reversal came from red channel resistance. This increase the odds that wave g is forming an Extracting triangle pattern and post its completion we will see a positive breakout. We will stay with this as preferred scenario as long as strong momentum with break of 10000 is not seen from here.

Scenario 2 – (shown in actual research report) ……….

So for now it is best to wait for a clear trend to emerge as prices are whipsawing around crucial areas thereby creating a challenging trading environment. Now a decisive move back above ……… will result into a positive breakout. Yesterday’s close is back towards the Bollinger bands support area which is at 10120 zone. Let us see if there is a positive attempt in today’s session thereby resulting into no net progress but high volatile movement.

In short, Nifty can continue to trade within ……….. levels. Buying near supports and selling near resistance is going to be the best strategy for now unless a decisive breakout in either direction is seen. We will stay with scenario 1 as preferred count for now and only a break below …….. will force us to adopt scenario 2…

To know what is the scenario 2 in case prices reverse again and what are the positive targets from here on get access now to “The Financial Waves short term update” We turned bullish near 9950 amidst all the pessimism and Nifty is already at 10280 levels. So what is next from here? Subscribe NOW annually and get 3 months of Monthly research report along with it. Visit here

Will Nifty form a low or will it crash?

I am sure majority are getting anxious now when Nifty is moving below 10,000 levels. When it was near 11000 I came out strong and bold and talked about an impending down move. 

Now when Nifty is breaking below 10000, majority are turning bearish when the momentum on downside is reducing. See below my view on Nifty for coming week: 

In case you have not seen my video on 2nd February which was post Budget, you can see why I was bearish then in the below video. Below video was published on 2nd February 2018

Subscribe to daily Equity research report – The Financial Waves short term update and see detailed Elliott wave / Neo wave counts on Nifty, Stocks, Bank Nifty – Visit here 

For Intraday / Positional calls on Nifty, Bank Nifty and stocks visit here

How to trade Nifty in coming week using Technical Analysis

Which pattern Nifty is forming using Elliott wave.Applying Technical indicators on chart.Visit https://www.wavesstrategy.com and see yourself different Technical indicators applied on charts of #Nifty, #BankNifty, #Stocks

Nifty: Power of Fibonacci ratios, see how accurately it is working!

Below research shows power of Fibonacci ratios especially 76.4% which we have identified as working extremely well on Nifty. It clearly shows application of Neo wave along with Fibonacci and how it helped me to forecast the target around 10320 levels just before the big down move happened.

Following was published in our daily research report – The Financial Waves short term update on 5thFebruary 2018. Look at the below chart and the forecast done near 10320 levels based on Fibonacci retracement of the entire wave g.

Nifty 60 mins chart: (shown in morning on 5th February)

Happened:

Elliott Wave analysis:

Following was published on 5th February 2018 before the collapse-

In previous update we mentioned that “introduction of Capital gains is going to result an impact which is not yet discounted maybe due to artificial support. Trade carefully as the swings can still be big over next few days! ….break below 10878 will be strongly bearish!” BANG ON!

We have been accurate in pointing out that the move seen on the Budget day can be an artificial support and markets are yet to discount it. So, the Budget acted as a catalyst in the already weak market. Above that DJIA – US major equity index cracked more than 650 points in single session which was not seen in years. Now everyone will suddenly start talking about bond yields going higher which was already rising over past few weeks. People are still not focusing on currency markets that have been sending across warning signs even before Budget that I have been talking about all the while. So there have been enough warning signs and we concluded our wave g at the highs on the Budget day itself.

Now looking at the violent nature of the fall there is high probability that a very important top might be in place. A euphoric rise getting culminated by equally fast reversal can be dangerous as lot of long positions are stuck near the highs and there is not much shorts build up since the reversal was dramatic.

Finally, Nifty cracked by more than 250 points. I am saying finally because this will bring back sanity to markets. You might have seen everyone on the street has started giving stock tips irrespective of any basis. Greed – one part of emotion had been in power for way too long and made people lethargic and complacent. A correction is important to ensure sanity returns and necessary home work has to be done before taking any positions. Case in point – You should not be surprised or rather shocked to see sharp correction. We were expecting a reversal anyways.

In my latest webinar you can see the reasons why this topping was imminent – Nifty crash post Budget? Is a top in place?

On hourly charts, you can see that prices have probably completed the entire rise and is now retracing this towards 76.4% levels which is at 10320. It is best to avoid catching a falling knife and trading in direction of the trend as long as Friday’s Gap area is protected. This week’s price action is going to be important and we will be closely seeing if it is indicating a bigger degree correction on downside.

Happened: The above was published just before the crash from 11000 to 10276 levels. This simply shows power of Advanced Elliott wave when applied along with Fibonacci retracement and projections.

So, what is next from here? Are we headed for another crash and is it just the beginning?

To know what is next from here subscribe to “The Financial Waves short term update” the daily research report that shows detailed analysis on Nifty, Bank Nifty and stocks. Also subscribe annually and get access to the monthly research report as a special offer for today! Visit Pricing page

How to trade using 5 minutes to daily charts based on Elliott wave, Neo wave and Hurst’s Time cycles, Fibonacci ratios? Attend the upcoming event on 10th and 11th March and get the power of technical analysis that can increase the accuracy of trades and investments multi-fold. Identify the stocks on daily basis and see what helped us to win the CNBC TV18 trade shows. Know more here or contact us on +91 9920422202 / 022 28831358. Limited seats left!

Nifty collapsed with Global markets, What is next?

Nifty crashed more than 390 points on intraday basis after the collapse on DJIA and global markets. Everyone is busy finding reasons to selloff but Elliott wave helped us to trade on short side well before this happened.

After the sharp decline with no major event globally, many are busy justifying the selloff and talking about yields tightening. But how does it help after the selloff happened?

Is there a way to catch such reversals, absolutely “YES”. Look at the below chart of Nifty when we marked a top is in place.

Also in my latest webinar last Friday 2nd March 2018 I mentioned Post Budget we might be topping – watch the webinar here

Now also look at the below chart we showed

Nifty 60 mins chart – Anticipated on 2nd February 2018 morning research report

Nifty 60 mins chart: Happened

Following was mentioned in morning of 2nd February in daily equity research report –

In short, it seemed to be a populist Budget like everyone expected but introduction of Capital gains is going to result an impact which is not yet discounted maybe due to artificial support. Trade carefully as the swings can still be big over next few days! Move above 11120 is must to resume the positive trend else break below 10878 will be strongly bearish!

Following was mentioned in morning of 5th February in daily equity research report –

In short, trend for Nifty remains firmly negative as long as 10880 is intact. Keep riding the trend using trailing stop method and the positions are already in the money that shorted on break of Budget low. Such sharp trends are rare but market did provide us with warnings before reversing. Let us see how far it goes from here! BANG ON!

Happened: Nifty collapsed along with global markets and now everyone is talking how we recovered from the lows. Our clients subscribed to daily morning research reports were already warned and asked to short as you can see above. We have been giving sell calls over past few days in our daily stock tips and advisory.

Movement of Nifty is no surprise for us and volatility was supposed to increase. So what is next from here? Did we form a short term low? Or Is it just the beginning of a bigger downtrend?

“The Financial Wave short term update” is our flagship research report consisting of views on Nifty, Bank Nifty and stocks. Subscribe now and see where we are headed from here on. Visit Pricing Page

Attend the Most Advanced Training on Technical analysis and application of Elliott wave, Neo wave, Hurst’s Time cycles on charts right from 5 minutes to daily and weekly. Also learn the power of forecasting and trading that helped to catch a BIG reversal this time as well. Only a few seats left. Register now and get free research reports until 15th February 2018. Know more

How to identify Impulse patterns? Elliott wave on Stocks, Gold, Silver, Crude, Copper

Trading using Technical analysis, Elliott wave and charts on Stocks, Gold, Silver, Crude and Copper. Visit https://www.wavesstrategy.com for Commodity tips. Also see trade setup on Nifty, Bank Nifty and Stock tips.

How to trade Nifty using Neo wave and Time cycles? Path ahead!

Neo wave is advanced concept of Elliott wave and by combining with Time cycles we can develop a very strong forecasting technique. at https://www.wavesstrategy.com you can get access to latest research and analysis on Stocks, Commodity, Currency markets. For any queries write to us at helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com or call us on +91 9920422202

Will Nifty 55 days’ Time cycle work again? A trending move should emerge soon!

Nifty has failed to show any positive momentum in this week even after Moody’s upgrade and prices have continued to move in a range. This is in lines with our expectations and the euphoria has simply failed to sustain so far.

We have been using Time cycles to understand important lows and on occasions to see if there is a possibility of top as well.

Look at the below chart of Nifty shown in today’s morning research report – “The Financial Waves short term update”

Nifty daily chart:

Understanding 55 days’ Time cycle: A cycle is an event, such as a price high or low, which repeats itself on a regular basis. Economic movement is highly cyclical and so is stock market movement. Lows are normally used to define cycle length and then project future cycle lows. Cycles follow certain rules which are explained below:

Understanding Harmonicity: Cycles are harmonious in nature and are normally governed by the factor of 2 or at times by factor of 3. This means that as 54 months cycle exists there is 54/3 = 18 months cycle, 18/2 = 9 months cycle. So 54,18 and 9 months become important set of predefined cycles. Similarly there are smaller cycles like 56 days, 28 days, 14 days.

Understanding Synchornicity: This concept of cycle science indicates that cycle lows are synchronous in nature. It means that if the larger cycle is forming a low then the smaller cycle by default forms a low at that point. So a 54 months cycle low will result into lows of 18 months, 9 months and so on.

We have identified 55 days’ Time cycle that has worked well on most of the occasions for catching important lows on Nifty. This cycle if considered from the lows of Demonetization which is 9th November 2016 has helped to capture short term reversal areas. This can be seen on the chart above.

Topping process or distribution is usually seen during second half of cycle. Let us see if this cycle can put pressure after next few days or not.

If you combine Time cycle with Price pattern the accuracy can be increased drastically. Simply imagine the power of forecasting when you see these advanced concepts combined together.

Subscribe NOW “The Financial Waves short term update” to see if we are on verge of starting the next strong trending move very soon. Do not miss out the next big opportunity. Visit Pricing Page for subscription options!