Monday, September 30, 2019

Yes Bank- Bang on with Fibonacci Extension, EMA!

Yes bank has been a major laggard in the banking space since a long time. Post testing the high of 286 in April 2018, the stock has been moving in a downtrend without any signs of recovery. We were able to capture today’s fall by applying Elliott wave patterns combined with Fibonacci Extension, EMA, and Channels.
Zigzag correction is 5-3-5 pattern one of the powerful pattern where wave a should be in form of 5 waves & then wave b should not retrace more than 61.8% retracement of prior move. Also there is tendency for wave c to move below the end of wave A.
The Fibonacci extensions show how far the next price wave could move following a pullback. It is also used to derive target levels. Common Fibonacci extension levels are 61.8%, 76.4%, 100%, 161.8%. Look at the chart of Yes Bank on daily time frame and see how prices have moved in sync with the Fibonacci extension levels.
The exponential moving average is sensitive to recent price changes and one can get the idea of the strength of a trend by looking at the slope of the moving average.
Below is the chart with detailed analysis published in our daily report- “The Financial Waves short term update”
 Yes Bank Daily chart: (Anticipated as on 05th September) when price was at 59
Yes Bank , Stock in news , Elliott Waves
 Yes Bank 60 mins chart: (Happened as on 30th September) touched lifetime low of 41.35
Anticipated as on 05th September – The prices are moving in a downward slopping channel and are now placed near the resistance shown in the short term chart. We are currently moving lower in the form of wave c of ongoing Zigzag pattern. We can expect the prices to move towards the 100% level of wave a extension that happens to be placed near the 44 level. BANG ON!
 On the hourly chart, we can see 50 EMA acting as strong resistance to prices and for any positivity break above this resistance near 63 on closing basis is required. We are currently moving in the form of wave (v) on the downside within which smaller degree wave iv is ongoing. Break below 53.30 will resume downtrend in form of wave v towards 48 or lower levels.
 In short the trend for Yes Bank seem to be sideways to negative with the immediate resistance placed at 63 and the support placed at 53.30 level. A move below the 53.30 level will take the price lower towards the 48 followed by 44 levels provided the resistance of 63 is held intact on a closing basis.
Happened as on 30th September – Prices moved exactly as expected and post testing the 50 EMA; the stock broke its important support of 53 on closing basis & moved lower to form another 52 weeks low near 41.35 levels.
We cannot be more accurate than this. The above research shows how well Elliott waves work and how different tools could help in deriving the exact entry points and targets for the same. Get access to the daily equity research report & capture good trading opportunity over short term “The Financial Waves short term update”- Get access here
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Below are the intraday, positional calls given for today:
30/09/2019 – NIFTY FUT SELL BELOW 11533 SL 11603 TGT1 11498 TGT2 11428
30/09/2019- BANKNIFTY FUT SELL BELOW 29766 SL 29966 TGT1 29666 TGT2 29466
30/09/2019- RBLBANK FUT SELL BELOW 328.1 SL 331 TGT1 326.3 TGT2 323.4
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Nifty Bollinger Bands, Elliott wave by Ashish Kyal

#Nifty outlook using #Bollingerbands #Elliottwave #technicalanalysis .
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Monday, September 23, 2019

Multibagger Berger Paints: 47% returns just over one year!

As the overall markets have again reversed the stocks we recommended in Multibagger have started showing strong rise.
In a portfolio not all stocks will contribute at the same time as we recommend from different sectors and stock movement is cyclical. But it is best to keep buying the ones that are exhibiting impulsive trend.
See below how Berger Paints performed that we recommended just over a year ago.
Berger Paints is exhibiting classic Impulse wave pattern with stock on a steady rise since the year 2000 onwards. The long to medium term trend for the stock is positive and there is potential to still see much higher levels eventually. Berger Paints India is one such stock that we recommended in our Multibagger research report based on various studies like Time cycles, Elliott wave, indicators.
We recommended this stock when it was quoting near the zone of 301 and was successfully able to catch the upmove. It touched its lifetime high near 436 levels in today’s session. See yourself how we were able to catch the upmove even before it began.
Below is the chart showing detailed analysis published in our research report –“The Financial Waves Multibagger Update”
Berger Paints weekly chart: (Anticipated as on 11th July 2018)
Berger Paints weekly chart: (Happened as on 23rd September 2019)
(Following research is taken from Multibagger report published on 11th July 2018)
Multibagger stock recommendation: Berger Paints
 Buy Price – Buy at CMP 301 and more on dips to 290
 Time Horizon – 1 to 2 years
 Investment – 5% of capital
 Target price –???  (Given in actual report)
 Stop loss- ???
Anticipated as on 11th July 2018-  As shown in weekly chart of Berger Paints prices are in cycle degree wave (III) and within this it is now starting wave V of (III) on upside. If we take 61.8% log projection of wave I then there is possibility of seeing the conservative target of ….. Equality target comes much higher towards … levels but it is best to stay conservative as we are in primary degree wave V.
 In a nutshell, one can initiate buy at current levels and add on dips towards 290 levels. Use … as strict stoploss as move below it will suggest premature truncation of wave V which looks lower probable scenario. We maintain our target of …. over the period of 1 to 2 years.
Happened as on 23rd September 2019  The stock has been moving in sync with our expectation and hit its lifetime high near 436.80 levels in today’s session. The upmove has been strong and we expect prices to achieve its target of ….. levels in coming months. The stock is giving a return in excess of 47% in just 13 months of time when Nifty has not moved anywhere during the same time.
Multibagger portfolio – Create your portfolio of Multibagger stocks and you can simply see power of impulse up. It took only two days for stocks to recover and move sharply higher. Months of correction has been retraced back in less than 2 days.
The above analysis clearly shows how one can identify the stocks from positional investment perspective just with the help of Elliott wave, time cycles and other advanced indicators. If you wish to build portfolio of stocks that can be potential Multibagger we can help you with identifying the stocks which can give alpha returns over medium to long term holding period. Get access now

Tuesday, September 17, 2019

Nifty: Bollinger Bands® at its best! Where will it stop?

Nifty has continued to trade in a big range that we saw earlier from November 2018 – February 2019. Prices reversed back from the upper end of this range and is now moving sharply lower.
During such range bound movement it is best to apply Bollinger bands. See the below chart of Nifty shown in our daily research report – The Financial waves short term update
Nifty daily chart: (shown in morning before market opens)

Following was mentioned in the morning on 17th September before the markets opened:
On 16th Sept – Nifty had a Gap down opening near 10995 levels post the global event over the weekend and prices traded in a narrow range throughout the day. The low was made at 10968 and high was at 11052 levels. Overall breadth still continued to stay positive with 1370 advances against 1147 declines…

Nifty is stuck in a range and positional trades on index during such times can be tricky. Prices closed the previous week at the highs but only to give away the gains on first day of the week. 

During such times Bollinger bands continue to provide important support and resistance and the resistance can be seen near 11160 levels on upside and the support is at 10760 levels. So unless we start seeing bands expansion and decisive close above or below these bands one can adopt the strategy of buying near support and selling near resistance.

In short, Nifty is stuck in a range with Crude up by more than 10% and INR depreciated against USD by nearly a percent. These events results into short term volatile movement and pressure on already struggling economy but what will be important is market movement….
The above research highlights how one has to use indicators based on the market movement and how to ride the trend.

For intraday trade setup we combine short term signals using Ichimoku Cloud and generated a short call near 10960 levels. It worked out brilliantly well and Nifty, Bank Nifty collapsed after that achieving target 2 on downside. Get access to Intraday calls  click here.

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Monday, September 16, 2019

Crude: Saudi attack – Will event result into positive breakout?

Crude has shown a historic rise in today’s session post the event on 14th September when the largest oil processing unit of Saudi Arabia was attacked by a drone. Such events result into high volatility resulting into a huge Gap up in prices today. It is therefore utmost important to know the risk when trading in futures market and how to act during such scenarios.
Now look at the below research on Crude which was published on 8th August 2019 in the daily monthly research report. It has been more than a month but prices behaved exactly as expected even now.
MCX Crude weekly chart – shown on monthly research on 8th August 2019
Following was mentioned on 8th August – MCX Crude post making a low near 2990 levels has witnessed recovery on the upside and has managed to sustain the rise indicating that a short term low might be formed near the same levels. However, it becomes important to analyse the bigger degree structure of this commodity.
Wave perspective: As shown on the weekly chart, post falling steeply and making a low near 2990 levels prices witnessed recovery on upside. Prices are moving in the form of Complex correction pattern and the last set of correction is on-going in the form of wave Z.  If we carefully look at the RSI indicator we can see that the oversold zone for the same has been near 30 levels from where prices bounced off to relieve its zone.
75 Weeks’ Time Cycle: We are showing 75 weeks Cycle on the chart and this cycle has worked amazingly well in capturing the major lows. Post the cycle low formed near 2990 where wave (a) was completed buying was witnessed. So over the short term we can expect prices to consolidate within the range of 3525-4200 levels and post which move towards higher levels and the low of 2990 should be protected on the downside. As per this Cycle the next low is near 8th of June, 2020. 
Understanding the internal structure: To show the internal structure we are showing the daily chart of Crude (shown in actual research report).
In short, Crude has continued to be in limelight and the trend over the short term looks to be range bound between 3500-4200 levels….
Happened: Crude made a low near 3624 levels since then and showed a sharp recovery on upside. Prices essentially traded in a range of 3500 – 4200 as we expected and today we saw a push above 4200 levels. Despite of all the events prices were stuck in a range for more than a month. So, will the event result into a positive breakout?

Get access to the commodity calls along with daily research report – The Commodity waves short term update and see yourself where is Crude, Copper, Gold, Silver is headed over short term. Also subscribe annually and get monthly research report free along with it. These are interesting times and it is important to use objective tools for trading. Subscribe NOW over here

Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Tata Motors: Gains 7%, amazing up move channels, Fibonacci retracement!

Tatamotors had been a top gainer in today’s session despite auto had been in series of negative news. Also it becomes important to analyze auto sector as if the weakest sector starts reversing on upside it will provide further clues that there is buying emerging. We were able to capture such huge rise on Tata Motors with the help of Elliott wave combined with channels and Fibonacci ratios.
Channels are the most basic and effective technique which helps in finding important support and resistance zones. As per our analysis majority of the time channels work extremely well and helps in finding the exact reversal areas.
Fibonacci ratios when applied along with Elliott wave give a very powerful method of forecasting. We have applied this method on Tata motors and it worked out brilliantly well!
The below chart is picked up from daily equity research report – “The Financial Waves short term update”
Tata Motors 120 Min chart: (Anticipated as on 29th August 2019 morning)
Tata Motors 120 min chart: (Happened as on 11 September 2019)
Elliott Wave analysis: Following was mentioned on 29th August 2019
On the daily chart, we are moving in the form of wave c of double corrective pattern. This wave c is forming ending diagonal impulsive pattern. The internal structure of the same can be seen on the hourly time frame chart above. 
As of now wave (iii) of c might have completed near the lows of 106 which was also 76.4% projection to wave (i). Break above 122 will further confirm that wave (iv) retracement has started. This will result into price movement towards 139 which is upper trendline of channel and also 50% retracement of wave (iii)… BANG ON! 
Happened as on 11th September 2019- Prices moved precisely as expected and rose up 7% in a single day moving above 131 levels so far. 
The above analysis clearly shows how well a simple channeling technique and Fibonacci retracements works in sync with Elliott wave. Get access to the intraday calls, daily equity research report & capture such amazing trading opportunity over short term “The Financial Waves short term update Get access here
In latest monthly update we talked about auto sector and how time cycles predicted short term low. Get access to our Monthly report and get detailed analysis of Nifty and Auto sector, Bank Nifty, Copper, and Dollar Index etc. Know more here

Friday, September 6, 2019

Nifty Volume at price, RSI and Auto sector (6th Sept 2019)

Nifty manage to close the last day of the week on a positive note. During this time it is important to see how is the leading sector has been performing. You can see that Auto sector has been a major dragger on the downside, now this sector is showing some out performance. In this webinar, I have explained volume at price on Nifty with RSI and auto sector

Thursday, September 5, 2019

LIC Housing Finance: How to trade using pullbacks! Learn to identify complex correction

LIC Housing Finance was close to a support zone and almost all oscillators were in deep oversold levels. As per classical technical analysis this was a sign of reversal but as per Neo wave we knew that it was a complex correction in progress and after a minor pullback the trend would continue lower.
A complex correction is formed out of standard ones (Zigzags, flats, triangles, Diametric) that are connected by a maximum of two x-waves.
The below chart is picked up from daily equity research report – The Financial Waves short term update on 23rd August 2019
LIC Housing Finance 60 mins chart: (Anticipated as on 23rd August 2019)
LIC Housing Finance 60 mins chart: (happened as on 5th September 2019)
Elliott Wave analysis: Following was mentioned on 23rd August 2019
Anticipated on 23rd August – As shown on daily chart, the recent fall is very steep and it is best to use any pullback as shorting opportunity in this stock. Only a panic low and sudden reversal above 460 will suggest a false break else use rallies to short.
As shown on hourly chart, in the previous trading session price broke below the downward sloping channel with a huge gap. Wave a is in progress. Price may show pullback as RSI is deep oversold but avoid creating longs as pullback can be temporary. 
In short, LIC Housing Finance looks negative. Pull back towards 435 – 440 can be used as shorting opportunity with 460 as important resistance for a move towards 400 on downside. BANG ON!
Happened as on 5th September 2019- Prices moved precisely as expected and showed a pullback in the form of wave b which was towards 438 levels from where we saw sharp reversal on downside in the form of wave c below 400 levels.
This simply shows power of Elliott wave and how accurately one can trade using these methods.
Get access to Intraday calls along with Elliott wave research report on Nifty, Bank Nifty, stocks and much more. Know more here

Wednesday, September 4, 2019

MCX Gold: Power of Impulse up! Will it continue to glitter?

Gold has been the asset which has given exorbitant returns over shortest possible time frame. That is the power of 3rd wave you can witness.
MCX Gold ended the yesterday’s session with a bullish marubozu candle and closed the session at 39740 with a gain of nearly 640 points. It is not very often that we see such steep rise in precious metal and it only indicates a strong trend is under way.
The below article describes the wave 3rd extension pattern of the Elliott wave principle. Prices are currently in wave (iii) of iii of 3 and it is not going to end anytime soon.
The below chart is from daily commodity research report – The Commodity Waves short term update
MCX Gold daily chart:
Wave analysis:
Usually Commodity witnesses largest wave 5. This is the reason why MCX gold is seen rising higher and higher since past many sessions. Currently intermediate degree wave (5) is ongoing within which sub wave 3 seems to be extended as shown on the daily chart. Internal counts suggest that prices are moving higher in the form of wave iii of wave 3.
Trend for MCX Gold remains positive with the immediate support placed at ……. If this level is held intact on a closing basis, we can expect the prices to move higher and test newer highs.  
3rd or 5th Wave extension looks like in a bull market in the above research. An extension is an unusually long impulse wave with exaggerated sub waves, according to Frost and Prechter. Many impulses contain only one extension in their sub waves. That is, only one of the wave’s one, three, or five, will be extended. The sub waves within an extension have nearly the same duration and amplitude as the ones in the rest of the wave.
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