Nifty Options Trading using Keltner Channel, Volume profile & KST indicator

Options trading requires understanding of momentum. The best indicator to measure this is using Keltner Channel along with KST indicator.

Which are the Powerful Indicators to use for Options buying?

Below chart shows application of 3 powerful indicators – Keltner Channel, Volume Profile and KST momentum indicator. Each of these have its own merits.

Nifty 22500 PE 25^th April 2024 expiry:

Nifty 22500 Put Option shows application of Keltner Channel, Volume Profile and KST on 15 minutes time frame.

Volume profile – This indicator helps to understand the area where major volume has taken place. We can see that 200 is the level where lot of activity has happened in this option price. After gap up on 15^th April, prices came to retest the volume profile area and also mid of the Keltner channel. This was the classic opportunity to enter on the long side of 22500 put options for the trend to resume on upside.

Keltner channel – shows the possible area of breakout. Currently prices are moving down along with Keltner channel. We need a break in options price above 300 which is mid channel followed by 341 that will confirm opportunity to buy again for positive trend. On downside 200 volume profile area is going to remain strong support zone.

KST indicator - this indicator is a very powerful time indicator and it measures if the momentum is building up or slowing down. Currently the same indicator is now moving below the 0 line suggesting lacklustre movement and this is also in sync with Keltner channel.

In short, as soon as Nifty put options prices give breakout above 300 levels we can get good options buying opportunity for a trend to 400 which is previous price action area.

In a nutshell, one can combine 3 powerful trading indicator to trade options directly.

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Nifty Elliott wave with KST Momentum indicator – BANG ON!

 Elliott wave is the GPS of the market that helps to understand the overall maturity of the trend and also provides confirmation if there is a reversal in vicinity.

Below is the chart of Nifty which was shared on 10^th April 2024 much before the fall started when prices were trading near 22700 levels.

Nifty chart - anticipated on 10^th April:

Nifty happened: as on 16^th April 2024

Nifty has moved sharply lower and the forecasting of the down move was done much before the fall in US stock market DJIA and also before the Israel war news. Following was mentioned on 10^th April 2024:

Anticipated - Nifty GPS Elliottwave counts with channel and KST indicator all suggesting matured stage of up move with major #Gann hurdle at 22877, KST failing to show momentum breakout and trendline resistance, ALERT!

Happened: Nifty moved precisely as expected and prices reversed down to making a low of 22100 already. The move on downside has been sharp and fast which is in lines with Elliott wave outlook. 

Prices completed wave 3 higher and reversed down as momentum failed as shown by KST indicator along with trendline resistance. Elliott wave already confirmed wave 3 to be near completion within the Ending Diagonal or terminal pattern.

Support on downside is near 21980 which is the area where ongoing wave 4 can complete and then again a pullback on upside is possible. However, breach below 21710 will indicate bigger downside correction.

Do note the above chart is as per Elliott wave and not Neo wave.

In a nutshell, above research highlights simple Elliott wave application and how it helped to capture medium term reversal on Nifty almost near the top of 22700 much before any news or events!

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Trading two Powerful Indicators - Supertrend and Volume profile

 Trading requires application of Technical analysis methods. Two powerful indicators that we use is Supertrend combined with Volume profile to see big trader’s activity.

Elliott wave helps to understand maturity of trend, supertrend is classic trend following method and volume profile provides area of reversal or big players activity zone.

Nifty hourly chart

As shown in above chart, after forming a top near 22760 area prices reversed on downside. We have also hinted in earlier research using Elliott wave – Neo wave that the up move is matured and should probably reverse on downside.

Supertrend – The reversal as per Elliott wave was further confirmed when prices broke below hourly supertrend indicator and continued to sustain below that. This indicator uses Average true range concept to derive the levels. It suggests if there is significant move in opposite direction and the trend has reversed. We can see red line formation above the prices suggesting that as long as Nifty futures are trading below 22493 overall tone will remain bearish with sell on rise method.

Volume profile – This indicator helps to understand the area where big traders have created their positions. We can clearly see that 22600 (futures) is the major hurdle on upside as the volumes have been significant there and on downside 22100 (futures) is important support zone. So, this can be the zone of pause for the current down move.

In a nutshell, Nifty trend remains sell on rise unless we see close supertrend and any change in volume profile will further indicate if the big traders positions are now changing.

Thus, one can use this simple indicator to ride the trend and especially options traders will have an upper edge over others when combining this technique of trend following along with Elliott wave – Neo wave techniques.

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Gold at Lifetime High, crossed 71K! What's Next?

 In today’s session, Gold made new life time high near 71080 levels. Gold is following its own independent Elliott wave pattern and Time Cycle. We predicted this up move even before the rally started using Time cycle and Elliott wave theory.

Look at below the charts and detailed research on MCX Gold taken from our Monthly research report which we published in March 2024 – “The Financial Waves Monthly update” 

MCX Gold Weekly chart Anticipated as on 19th March 2024

MCX Gold Daily chart Anticipated as on 19th March 2024

 MCX Gold Daily chart with 51 Days Time cycle Anticipated as on 19th March 2024

Wave analysis as on 19^th March 2024

During the month of February Gold showed movement in both the direction. However, at the start of March 2024, Gold finally gave a breakout of the Triangle pattern. After which we saw a sharp rally in Gold which led prices to make fresh record high near 66356 levels. Gold moved precisely and managed to achieve out targets of 63300 and moved above it. We have successfully captured this rally of more than 8%.

We are seeing magic of Time cycle! As we mentioned in the previous report that a breach above 62700 will turn cycle on the buy side. Prices moved up precisely from it. Since the start of March 2024, we have witnessed rise of more than 6% in Gold. The sharp rally that we saw is majorly due to Fed rate cut speculation, profit booking in US bond fueled the rally!

On the Weekly chart, we can see Bollinger Bands® have started expanding and prices have recently given a breakout of the upper Bollinger Bands. In the previous week, prices gave a close above previous week’s candle high which is a positive sign. This keeps weekly tone on the positive side.

We have plotted 51 Day’s Time Cycle which has helped to determine crucial reversal areas. We can see prices made low exactly on our cycle near 61190. Since then, we saw a sharp rally of more than 8% in Gold. The next cycle is due by 23^rd April 2024. Until then we can expect Gold to continue to shine!!!!

In nutshell, Overall tone for Gold looks positive. Therefore, accumulating gold at current levels in a staggered way can be a systematic strategy to ride the trend with the targets of 66400. Avoid catching tops and use dips as a buying opportunity for a move towards followed by as long as 63800 holds on the downside.

MCX Gold Happened as on 8^th April 2024

Happened: Gold moved precisely in sync of our expectations. Prices achieved our target of 66400 and moved way above it and made life time high near 71080 levels. We have captured this up move of more than 8% in less than one moth.

We have been mentioning about reversal in Gold since past 2 months in our Monthly research reports. We have successfully captured this entire rally of more than 15% from Time cycle low which was near 61190 levels.For now, one can use buy on dips approach to ride the trend as long as as 69900 holds on the downside.

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Nifty Trading KST momentum indicator with Keltner Channel Breakout

Trading KST momentum indicator with Keltner Channel are two powerful indicators to trade Options.

Using momentum indicators along with breakout techniques that can help in capturing the entire up move is important.
Nifty 15 minutes chart:

In above chart of Nifty we can see two important indicators that are focused on prices and momentum.

Keltner channel – This indicator is different than that of Bollinger Bands®. Bollinger Bands uses standard deviation to the mean whereas Keltner channel is derived using Average True Range (ATR). Both of the indicators have different way of application.

In Keltner channel we can see that break above upper channel on 28^th March which was the 1^st break above the upper channel of Keltner. Post that prices showed strong trend higher.

KST momentum – Breakout on Keltner channel was also accompanied by KST momentum indicator. KST momentum indicator broke above the signal line thereby giving strong confirmation that momentum was picking on upside.

In entire up move prices have not moved below the lower Keltner channel and KST if now again moves back above the signal line it will indicate a positive reversal. This can be a pause before the resumption of uptrend but a classic signal can be expected when both these techniques again get synchronized.

In a nutshell, Keltner channel helps to understand if the size of candle is increasing which is suggesting a significant move and KST further provides confirmation of momentum. Price action above 22500 which is upper channel will result into another synchronous signal from these indicators.

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Nifty Timing the Entry For Profitable Trade Setup

It is possible to time exact entry and exit using Time cycle concept of Technical analysis.

By combining price action rules along with Time cycles one can form profitable trade setup.

Nifty and Bank Nifty times have been forecasted even before a move of more than 300 points was seen on Nifty on 28^th March.

Nifty 15 minutes chart: Anticipated on 23^rd March in live webinar

Nifty Happened:

Bank Nifty 15 minutes chart: Anticipated on 23^rd March

Bank Nifty Happened:

Nifty & Bank Nifty charts shown above need little explanation. We can see that prices have behaved from the time cycle precisely as expected.

Nifty time forecasted was 26^th March 10.30 am, prices moved sideways and then rallied sharply from there on upside.

Also later on another cycle period Nifty rallied on Thursday by more than 400 points in single day. This up move also started from time cycle period.

Bank Nifty time forecasted was 27^th March, 9.15am. Bank Nifty formed a low near 46620 around that time period and later rallied to touch high of 47400. This is an up move of nearly 800 points in just few hours.

The above charts are clear examples that shows how time and price action if combined together one can forecast the entry and move much before then it happened.

In a nutshell, it is possible to time the market to very day, hour and minute and make the most of the ongoing trend without having to worry about when will market reverse. This is power of timing the market and it is a scientific approach to trading.

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Nifty Neo wave with inverse Head & Shoulder pattern at Lifetime Highs!

Nifty is nearing to lifetime high levels and rallied sharply by more than 300 points in single day.

Prices formed inverse Head & Shoulder pattern, broke the neckline and gained momentum.

Below chart shows Neo wave counts possible ongoing pattern.

Nifty hourly chart:

Nifty on 28^th March managed to break above the neckline of inverted Head & Shoulder pattern near 22180 and thereby activated the positive reversal on upside for the target of the head which is near 22670 levels.

There was a bear trap by breaking below 21840 temporarily and then reversal back above 22k. Earlier we were expecting the entire rise from the lows of Feb 2024 as a running triangle but reversal above 22180 confirmed that the fall was only a part of Diametric pattern which was wave f and currently wave g is ongoing.

Wave g tends towards equality to that of wave a which also gives the upside target as 22670 levels. However, these are only guidelines and not rules.

Given the sharp rally accompanied by short covering by call sellers the tone for Nifty remains buy on dips.

Over short term for better risk-reward it is prudent to use dips as buying opportunity with 22180 as crucial support and aiming for targets of 22670 levels.

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Nifty Time cycle Trading with Neo wave targets – Path Ahead

Trading without fear requires understanding of Price action, Time cycle, Elliott wave pattern.

Time trading – helps to identify key reversal areas and the same can be combined with Time indicators like Future line of Demarcation with Elliott wave – Neo wave technique.

Below chart of Nifty shows index movement over past few Time period and how FLD has been helping to provide targets.

Nifty daily chart with FLD:

Diametric pattern on weekly chart - As shown on weekly chart, prices have possibly completed wave (e) and we can move lower in form of wave (f). Equality of wave (f) to that of wave (b) gives downside target of …... levels. (actual levels are shown in monthly research report) We will be conservative in our approach and first see price action near 21530 levels when prices reach there and if the momentum pick up even below that level. The downside target can be seen on daily chart.

FLD intersection - As shown on Nifty daily chart, prices are now intersecting with the FLD (Future line of Demarcation) line. This is a shifted price by parameter of 29 (shown in black). An FLD line is time indicator that is phase shifted basis of half of time cycle parameter. Prices is finding support around this FLD line.

It closed for a day below it and reversed up, now break back below 21850 will confirm negative crossover thereby opening downside targets.

In a nutshell, indicators along with Neo wave technique and Time cycles are getting aligned together for trend changing. Break below 21850 to open targets for 21530. On upside 22250 is going to be major hurdle. Until then expecting sideways action within the range and once the indicators get aligned classic opportunity to trade in Options from short term perspective.

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CONCOR: How to derive targets using Elliott wave and price action

 CONCOR: How to derive targets using Elliott wave and price action

Simple Elliott wave helps us to identify big moves well in advance. If we combine it with price action along with simple indicators like Bollinger Bands then one can form powerful trade setups with much higher accuracy!!

We published the following research on CONCOR pre-market on 6^th March 2024 in "The Financial Waves Short Term Update" which our subscribers receive pre-market every day.

CONCOR Daily Chart Anticipated as on 6^th March 2024

CONCOR Hourly chart Anticipated as on 6^th March 2024

Wave analysis as on 6^th March 2024:

CONCOR rallied more than 17% in the month of February and made life time high near 1027.65. Since then we are witnessing profit booking in this asset. In the previous trading session, CONCOR closed with a loss of -1.85%. On the above chart we can see that prices reversed from the upper bands and currently trading at the mid bands. A close below it can drag the price lower towards 945 which is next important support level.

 

On the hourly chart, we have applied Supertrend indicator to know the direction of trend. As we can see Supertrend already is in sell which shows the bearish momentum can continue to be seen. Supertrend line can act as an important resistance which is near 988 levels. As long as price stays below it, short term bias remains negative.

 

In short, view for CONCOR is bearish. A breach below 965 can drag the price lower towards 945 as long as 988 holds on the upside.

 

CONCOR Daily chart Happened as on 20th march 2024

 Happened: We can see that wave count have helped us to find out the trend reversal for CONCOR well in advance. In our report we mentioned that after wave (v) completion, further selling can be seen. Stock moved precisely and achieved our target of 945 and moved way below it and made low of 819.45 levels which more than 14% move from our mentioned levels.

For now, one can use sell on rise method to ride the trend as long as 858 holds on the upside.

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Nifty path ahead using Elliott wave pattern – Is it Time to Buy?

Trading using Elliott wave – Neo wave with price forecasting technique for clear targets and stoploss.

Nifty chart shows movement with high volatility over past many days but prices are essentially stuck in a range without any momentum.

It is crucial to understand the pattern to trade and prices are forming Diametric pattern as per advanced Elliott wave – Neo wave method.

Nifty hourly chart:new

Elliott wave analysis – As shown on above chart we can see that post completing wave x near 21100 levels there has been move on upside which is definitely not following any of the impulse rules. We can clearly see overlap between each of the legs which confirms that the upside trend is in corrective pattern.

Neo wave defines new pattern as Diametric that has 7 legs and shows contraction followed by expansion. This pattern is labelled as a-b-c-d-e-f-g and by measuring price time symmetry we can identify potential reversal areas.

As per this pattern wave g tend towards equality to that of wave a, wave e ~ wave c and wave f ~ wave b.

We can see this price symmetry very clearly displayed in the ongoing pattern. On downside, wave f has been equal to wave b near 21920 levels measuring end to end but if we measure from completion of wave e we get the target as 21840 on downside. So, wave f should ideally not move beyond this point and any break below this level will suggest some other pattern is ongoing.

Now on faster retracement above 22120 we will get further positive confirmation that wave g on upside has started that can tend towards equality with wave a thereby giving the targets of 22400 or higher.

Thus as long as 21840 – 21920 zone is protected, we can expect positivity again but price time confirmation is crucial for a move to 22400 or higher!

In a nutshell, by analysing the pattern as per Elliott wave – Neo wave one can form a complete trading system with low risk high reward setup and trade with conviction. This can be combined with Time cycles for timing the entry to very day, hour and minute.

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Nifty Realty surged more than 110% in last 1 year; KPIL For Multibagger Returns!!

It is possible to capture a massive move in a shorter time frame with the help of Time cycle and simple Elliott wave.

We had recommended to buy Kalpataru Projects in our Multibagger stock report back in July 2023 around 599 levels! Below shows a detailed chart and analysis that the stock followed.

KPIL Weekly Chart Anticipated as on 26th July 2023
  KPIL Weekly chart with Bollinger Bands Anticipated as on 26th July 2023
 

Wave analysis as on 26^th July 2023

In the weekly chart of KPIL, we can see that, stock was in a large complex correction since many years. The stock completed wave Y(blue) and Primary wave 2 (black) near the low of around 360 levels in August 2023. After the formation of this low price has shown sharp recovery of almost 72% and has managed to move in a higher high and higher low fashion. Currently Primary wave 3 is moving on the upside. This confirms that a major correction looks to have completed and a fresh impulse move has started on the upside.

Also, breakout of the ‘Inverse Head and Shoulder pattern’ has happened. This is classical reversal pattern which occurs when downtrend is in final stages. Along with this, the breakout of the upper bands has started. If prices able to give breakout again then further bullish momentum can continue. Hence the overall trend remains bullish.

The 76 weeks’ time cycle represented by red vertical lines which can be seen in the above chart which has managed to capture major lows. Recent low made was also exactly near our cycle. Any close above 600 can turn cycle on the buy mode. In short, overall signs are suggesting that the outlook looks positive as Wave theory and Time cycle both are in sync. Now we just need price action to confirm it.

In short, KPIL seems to have started a long term up move. One can buy at current levels near 599 and add more quantity in case price dips towards 500 levels for a move towards 1080 or higher levels. Place the stoploss at 360 levels which is a low of wave 2.

KPIL Daily chart Happened as on 14^th March 2024

Happened: In July 2023, we published on KPIL (KALPATARU PROJECTS) in our Multibagger report. At that time stock was trading close to 599 levels. Stock recently on 11th March 2024 achieved our target of 1080 levels and made a high of 1163 within less than 8 months, which is more than 100% from the dip levels.

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Gold at Lifetime High, What's Next?

 Gold at Lifetime High, What's Next?

Gold has started to shine again and recently Gold made new life time high near 65140 levels. Gold is following its own independent Elliott wave pattern and Time Cycle. We predicted this up move even before the rally started using Time cycle and Elliott wave theory.

Elliott wave helps us to navigate the trend of the market. Time cycle helps to identify early entries. It has worked out well especially if you know how to apply the Elliott wave along with the Time cycle.

Look at below the charts and detailed research on MCX Gold taken from our Monthly research report which we published in February 2024 – “The Financial Waves Monthly update”

Gold Weekly chart Anticipated as on 16th February 2024

MCX Gold with 51 Days’ Time cycle as on 16th February 2024

 

MCX Gold Daily chart Anticipated as on 16th February 2024

Wave analysis as on 16^th February 2024

During the month of January Gold showed movement in both the direction. Currently MCX Gold has lost its momentum over the months which is visible on the above charts. On the weekly chart, we can see that prices are trading in a tight range of 61500-64400. However, overall trend is positive as prices have still protected Ichimoku cloud support on weekly basis. 

In the previous session Gold witnessed correction after uptick in the dollar index (DXY) following a higher-than-expected US inflation number which exceeded expectations.

On the daily chart, we have shown Bollinger Bands. Bands are looking flat and size of it has reduced considerably which happens due to lack of volatility. Such period of low volatility often followed by high volatility. A trending move is much awaited in this asset.

We have plotted 51 Day’s Time Cycle which has helped to determine crucial reversal areas. We can see in the above chart which clearly suggest that how cycle has worked out well for catching lows most of the time. Currently cycle is ongoing. So, we expect some sideways action or some weakness in this commodity. After which we can expect a fresh buying.

Gold is at deciding point. A breach below 61000 can result into further correction with the targets of 60300. Whereas a breach above 62700 can turn cycle on the buy side which can lift the price further higher towards 63300.

MCX Gold Daily chart Happened as on 6^th March 2024

Happened: Gold moved precisely in sync of our expectations. Prices made low exactly on our cycle and since then we witnessed a rise of more than 6% in short span of Time and prices made a fresh record high at 65140 levels. This is pure magic of Time cycle! 

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BHEL Up 300% in One Year! What is Next for this Multibagger?

 BHEL rallied by more than 300% since February 2023. The Multibagger stock has given stellar performance.

BHEL was up by more than 12% as on 4^th March 2024.

But will the trend continue from here?

Let us look at from Elliott wave perspective

BHEL Daily chart:

BHEL is moving higher in impulse trend. The stock has rallied by more than 300% since wave (3) started higher.

Prices are currently moving in the form of wave 5 of (3). The up move has still more room to cover and we can expect the stock to reach towards the level of 295 – 300 post which we should see retracement in form of wave (4).

Over short term dips can be used as buying opportunity with 240 as immediate support.

The rally looks to be in matured stage but still buy on dips will work well for now as per the GPS (Elliott wave) of the market.

Path ahead is shown as per Elliott wave pattern and we will evaluate further as and when more price action unfolds from here.

In a nutshell, trend for BHEL is positive but the best of the trend might be behind use. Prices can move higher till 290 – 300 levels before showing retracement as long as 240 remains intact.

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DATAPATTNS Bang On- 2 Best Indicators You Cannot Miss!

Simple price pattern breakout along with price indicators creates wonder if one combines it together! See yourself how we identified such massive move in DATAPATTNS Check out how we selected this momentum stock named as DATAPATTNS which has rallied more than 19%

We published DATAPATTNS analysis in "The Financial Waves Short Term Update" on 23rd February 2024 which our subscribers receive pre-market every day. Check out below the detailed research report that we published.

DATAPATTNS Daily chart Anticipated as on 23rd February 2024

DATAPATTNS Hourly chart Anticipated as on 23rd February 2024

 

Wave analysis as on 23^rd February 2024:

DATAPATTNS has been moving higher recently and intact in strong uptrend. In the previous session it closed with a massive gain of 8.67%.

On the daily chart, in the previous session prices formed a bullish candle. The stock is moving in a rectangular range over the last few days indicating accumulation in the stock. Price has closed above this trading range will result into a bullish breakout of the rectangular pattern. Price is trading above the ichimoku cloud which indicate that the short-term bias is bullish.

As shown on the hourly chart, we have applied parabolic SAR which used to determine the price direction as well as draw attention to when the price direction is changing. A series of dots placed below the price which is deemed to be a bullish signal. Closest support is placed at 2110.

In short, trend for this stock is positive. Use dips towards 2200-2220 as a buying opportunity for a move towards 2440-2460 levels as long as 2110 holds on the downside

 

DATAPATTNS Daily chart Happened as on 1^st March 2024

Happened: After we published the report, the stock made a dip exactly towards 2220 levels which we mentioned earlier. Within the short span of time, the stock has given more than 19% return in such volatile market and moved way beyond our target which was of 2460 levels. Stock made high of 2679.95. Price action supported the trend and as a result we saw a sharp rally in DATAPATTNS

 

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