How to apply Fibonacci studies with technical indicators?

In this webinar you can see application of different technical indicators, Fibonacci retracement projections, applied on charts. Visit https://www.wavesstrategy.com for detailed Elliott wave, Neo wave analysis on #stocks, #commodity, #forex markets

Nifty: Application of Fibonacci and Neo wave!

How to trade #Nifty despite the events. We have captured the tops near 11117 and lows near 9950. What is next? See application of #Neowave, #Elliottwave, #Fibonacci. Visit https://www.wavesstrategy.com

Nifty: Power of Fibonacci and pattern! BANG ON!

Nifty showed a move of more than 140 points in today’s session on the upside. This might be a shocker for the shorts but we have been mentioning the importance of a channel that has worked out brilliantly in the past on more than 4 occasions.

Below is the hourly chart of Nifty that was published today morning before equity markets opened. We mentioned the important support zone near 9950 levels which was also 61.8% projection of the wave a on downside.

Latest webinar: Will Nifty form a low or will it crash?

Nifty 60 mins chart (showed on morning of 26th March before markets opened)

Happened:

Wave analysis:

Following was mentioned in morning research – The Financial Waves short term update

…The overall selling pressure seen now is due to the weak Global markets. US major index DJIA is down another 424 points. This can result into weak opening but closing is going to be crucial.

It is not only Nifty but many individual stocks are also arriving near the lower trendline support. It is rare to see lower trendline getting broken on downside and when that happens real panic kicks in. So it is very important for bulls to protect the lower trendline support on closing basis… As shown on hourly chart, prices are moving lower in the form of minute wave c of minor wave g of Diametric pattern. Friday’s low near 9950 is also where wave g = 61.8% * wave a. So today’s closing is important.

Existing shorts should book partial profits as prices are approaching cluster of support zone and trail remaining to ride the ongoing down move but with a strict stoploss in case there is a sudden reversal.

…We have seen break below all the major supports so far but this is the level near lower trendline from where we have seen bounce back on more than 4 occasions in recent past. Let us see if it works again this time or not!

 Happened: Nifty moved precisely as expected and prices reversed back from the important Fibonacci projection and trendline support. This simply shows power of Elliott wave, Neo wave, Channels and Fibonacci.

In case you missed my latest webinar where I talked about me turning bearish near 11000 levels and now turning bullish near 10000 mark! Here you can watch it – Elliott wave channel.

Subscribe now to “The Financial Waves short term update” and see yourself how to trade from here on Nifty, Stocks, Bank Nifty and why we were cautioning the shorts when majority turned bearish below 10000 levels. Also we have been able to provide long calls on Nifty, Bank Nifty, stocks to our subscribers right at the bottom when only a few would have dared about it! Get access to Intraday / Positional advisory and get research reports free along with it. Subscribe here

Webinar: How to plot Channels, Fibonacci, Cycles on Charts!

#ElliottWave news channel is a short video series. Ashish Kyal of http://www.wavesstrategy.com/ will be going live weekly at 4 pm every Friday. Stay tuned to know the current technical state of markets and learn more on advanced concepts of Elliott wave, #Neowave and #TimeCycle

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How to select stocks for Intraday trading using Elliott wave, Momentum, Fibonacci levels?

Below are the few key pointers I personally followed during the ET Now stock trading game that helped me to win by substantial margin.

Understanding trend using Elliott wave, Neo wave, Time cycles: First and most important thing is to analyze the direction of Nifty and the broader market along with maturity of ongoing trend. To do this I used Elliott wave, Neo wave and other advanced technical analysis concepts for confirmation and maturity of the trend.

Avoid looking at overbought or oversold readings: Next step involved looking at the outperforming stocks. Intraday trade is all about capturing momentum rather than reversal. It is better to avoid looking at overbought zone on RSI as a strong trending stock will result into over bought values. Also avoid capturing reversals so a stock which is already near new monthly or yearly lows should be preferred for shorting and stocks that have managed to outperform the broader markets over the period form a strong positive bar.

Channeling technique: This is one of the most important methods that I use to determine the resistance and support areas. If prices are lying near the upper end of the channel it is better to avoid going long irrespective of the momentum whereas if there is a big momentum bar formation from the channel support with a clear higher highs and higher lows and the risk reward is favorable then the stock can be shortlisted

Fibonacci projections: To apply this it is important to understand basics of Elliott wave so that the projections are done from the wave perspective. This helps in deriving the target levels.

Now look at the example of one of the trades done on 10^th May 2016

Manapurram daily chart:

Chart courtesy: netdania.com

Now the above chart is of Manappuram Finance one of the stocks on which Long positions were taken on 10^th of May based on the techniques mentioned above.

The stock was up by 20% after three days i.e. on 13^th May. We have exited based on the target levels but the point is to simply highlight the potential of the strategy. Also it doesn’t matter whether the movement happened on back of news or results because this stock was already in strong upside momentum even before the news break out.

Training on Trading strategy for Intraday / Positional trades using Momentum, Neo wave, Time cycles on 23^rd and 24^th July 2016. Learn the in depth strategy followed during the show on ET NOW. Enroll Now and avail early bird offer. Limited seats! Contact US here or write to us at helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com or on +91 22 28831358 / +91 9920422202

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Application of Channels, Moving averages, Fibonacci on Sunpharma!

Many think that market moves in random fashion and there is no way to trade or invest it with objective tools. However we differ from it and suggest that objective technical tools can provide fruitful results from short, medium to long term perspective. We are not just saying but proof of the same is shown below on Sun Pharma chart with applied basic technical analysis  like Channels, Moving averages and Fibonacci. Here we can see that how prices have reacted post touching channel as well as 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.  

Sun Pharma 60 mins chart: (Anticipated in the morning of 27^th January 2016)

Sun Pharma 60 mins chart: (Happened on 29^th January 2016)

(part of research taken from The Financial Waves Short Term Update)

Wave analysis:

CNX Pharma index has been moving in sideways to negative action from the start of 2015. Recently this index tested the support of important channel and has formed Hammer candlestick in last week. This indicates that buying attempt was witnessed in last week from lower levels. Prices have taken out the high of last week which suggests positivity over short term. In this case Sun pharma can be one of the stocks which can show upside trend in coming days.

As shown in 60 mins chart, prices have taken out the last leg of down move with strong momentum which indicates that consolidation is over and trending move on upside can continue. On downside 775 is the important support where channel is placed.

In short, Sun pharma near term trend is positive with the support of 775 for a move towards 840 levels.

Happened:  As expected Sun pharma continued the positive trend and achieved our mentioned level of 840 on 29^th January 2016. Post that once again prices have reached toward crucial juncture, so what should be the trading strategy now?

Subscribe to “The Financial Waves Short Term Update” which covers Nifty and 3 stocks with important levels and Elliott wave counts. For more information visit Pricing Page

Attend one of the most advanced training on technical analysis which focuses on Hurst’s Time cycles along with Neo wave – Advanced Elliott wave to understand the key reversal areas that can be applied right from trading to creating investment portfolios.

Enroll now for the training to be conducted on 12^th and 13^th March 2016 before 1^st February to avail early bird offer. It is a very different experience when you are trained to capture the reversal areas yourself but yes this will come with experience and practice. Post the training you can also share across the charts as an ongoing support. For registering Contact US or write to us at helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com or call us on +91 9920422202 / +91 22 28831358.

Is Nifty due for a strong up move despite poor IIP & CPI data?

Bottom Line: Nifty had another Gap up opening and managed to cross above 7710 level. Further move above 7750 to confirm start of next leg on upside!

The below research is published in "The Financial Waves short term update". For subscription to daily research reports visit http://www.wavesstrategy.com/index.php/store.html

Nifty daily chart: 

  

Announcements:

“The Financial Waves Monthly Update” is now published. The current research focuses on relative comparison of different sectors in rally started from August 2013 in Indian Equity Markets. Understanding PE Ratio, GDP Growth with Sensex. Analysis of Baltic Dry Index to know the overall health of the Economy. TVS Motor exhibits good opportunity from investment perspective and long term path of the same is explained as per Elliott wave theory. Gold/Silver Ratio to know which asset class will outperform or underperform over short to medium term. EURUSD path ahead as per Elliott wave theory.

Subscribe monthly research report “The Financial Waves Monthly update” by visiting http://wavesstrategy.com/index.php/store.html and see yourself the long term forecasts and world markets at a glance.

Nifty 60 mins chart:    

Wave Analysis:

In previous update we mentioned that “The entire move on downside from the high of 7840 is enclosed within the red channel and close above 7710 will be first sign of positive reversal which will break the previous pivot high and also the downward sloping channel… In short, above 7635 the current up move can continue towards 7680 levels. For further positivity strong break above 7710 followed by 7750 will be important.”

For consecutive second day, Nifty had a Gap up opening of nearly 30 points and managed to sustain the Gap throughout the day. The action was similar to that of Monday’s movement but prices managed to generate momentum post 2 pm and closed above 7710 level. The strong move broke 7710 level decisively and also the downward sloping red channel. This increases the odds that the entire correction that started from 7808 levels on 8^th July 2014 is probably complete and next uptrend has started. However, further move above 7750 will be important to confirm this scenario.

An interesting thing to observe is that the entire up move from 7422 towards 7840 did not produce any sustainable Gaps and currently we have observed 2 consecutive Gap up which has remained unfilled. If the Gap area created yesterday between 7625 and 7655 remains open even today and prices later manages to cross above 7750 it will indicate that wave c of the Irregular Flat correction is complete and the next wave on upside has started.

As shown on 60 mins chart, the down move in form of wave c is Ending diagonal pattern as discussed before. Yesterday’s sharp reversal has opened the possibility that wave e is complete at the lows of 7600 on 11^th August itself. This makes wave e small in terms of price compared to other legs but from time perspective it has still consumed 5 hours. If I remember correctly such similar action was last seen during the up move of January 2012 where the previous leg ended in Ending diagonal pattern with wave e truncating in exactly similar fashion. It was however on a daily degree but we are seeing this on hourly degree currently. The post pattern implication at that time was the high exceeded by the factor of 23.6% of the prior down leg and if current leg indeed behaves in similar fashion then the high of immediate preceding leg at 7840 should be breached and we can reach atleast towards 7910 levels. However, for now move above 7750 will be very crucial and on downside yesterday’s Gap between 7625 and 7655 should be protected.

The poor IIP data and higher than expected CPI data can result into short term down move but it will be crucial to observe if by closing market can manage to move above 7750 levels. Also these data are for the past and equity markets are discounting the future. Let us see if this news can result into temporary correction else deeper retracement below 7655 will force us to change the wave structure.

In short, further move above 7750 level will confirm the start of next leg on upside with 7650 acting as important support. On downside the Gap area of yesterday between 7655 and 7625 should be protected for positivity of past 2 days to continue.

To get updates before market opens on stocks and Nifty subscribe "The Financial Waves short term update" by visiting http://www.wavesstrategy.com/index.php/store.html

Forecasting Nifty using Elliott wave pattern! What’s next?

The below article highlights how forecasting can be done using Elliott wave and channel techniques along with Fibonacci ratios.

The research is taken from “The Financial Waves STU” published in the morning of 24^th February 2014, which includes Nifty and 3 stocks. On 24^th February 2014 morning we had shown the probable path Nifty should follow over short term when the index was quoting near 6150 levels.

Nifty 60 mins chart: ( Anticipated on 24^th February, 2014)

Nifty 60 mins chart: (Happened today)

Wave Analysis:

On 24^th February 2014 we mentioned that “As shown on 60 mins chart, prices are now in 2^ndset of corrective pattern. We are showing one of the probable paths that prices might follow.This path is in sync with short term cycle which is due on 26^th – 27^th February. This cycle has worked very well since we have shown and over past few times it has formed……In short, we can now expect a move towards 6200 – 6240 over short term as long as 6060 is protected. Volatility can increase due to expiry in current week and we will be keeping a close tab on broader markets to further gauge …”

Happened: As expected, Nifty followed our mentioned path accurately. The above chart clearly reflects that. In the today’s morning session, prices made a high of 6274. Now, prices have also retraced 76.4% of the prior fall and time cycle is due which has worked very before. However there is no price confirmation for now but indicators are getting lined up together. Under such scenario it is important to wait for break of crucial levels for further direction. What should be the trading strategy from current levels? To know the next wave in Indian markets, subscribe to“The Financial Waves Short term update”. For more information, visit Pricing Page.

Nifty forming topping pattern! Fibonacci levels!

The below research is published by Waves Strategy Advisors on 20th January 2014 morning. For daily research report "The Financial Waves short term update" on Nifty and Equity stocks visit http://wavesstrategy.com/index.php/store.html

Bottom Line: Nifty looks vulnerable. Close below 6230 followed by 6190 will indicate the uptrend from 5118 is probably complete!

Nifty daily chart:

  

            Nifty 60 mins chart:

data as on 20th January 2014 morning

Wave Analysis:

In previous update we mentioned that, “So far prices are still where it opened the month and there is no net progress. Unless and until we see a strong breakout above 6450 with momentum across the sectors our view will be of topping process as ongoing. In short, move above yesterday’s high of 6345 will continue the uptrend as long as 6260 followed by 6230 is intact on downside but the medium term outlook remains as topping for now.”

Nifty had a weak opening on Friday and prices traded in red zone throughout the day. The selling pressure intensified in 2^nd half and Nifty momentarily broke below the immediate support of 6260 but managed to close above it. The low made by index was at 6245 which is above an important support of 6230 levels. Close below 6230 will be first sign of negative confirmation that the short term uptrend is in danger.

Move up from 6140 to recent high of 6345 took 4 days exactly like x wave (shown on daily chart) anticipated earlier. Friday was 1^st day of down move and a complete retracement below 6140 over next 3 days will be a strong negative confirmation that an important top is in place. We will get the downside forecast for the next intermediate trend once a confirmation for top is in. Move below 6140 will strongly indicate that move from 5118 to 6345 has ended and the trend will remain negative atleast for few weeks if not months. However, as of now looking at the shorter degree chart there seems to be a possibility of one minor push back towards 6320 levels and prices can fail near that. If it however manages to break above it then 6380 can be the strong hurdle zone.

Over short term, as shown on 60 mins chart, the time cycles have been working very precisely. This time as well the top is made a day later similar to previous top which was made a day later shown by this cycle. The idle path is as shown on the chart but the uptrend can be in danger if 6230 is broken sharply in impulsive fashion. As long as that is intact one attempt towards 6320 or 6380 cannot be ruled out.

In short, as prices have so far managed to protect the important pivot support of 6230 we continue to look at the scenario as topping and one minor attempt on upside is plausible. Close below 6230 followed by 6140 will confirm start of a bigger degree downtrend.

For subscription to daily research report "The Financial Waves short term update" on Nifty and Equity stocks visit http://wavesstrategy.com/index.php/store.html

Nifty: The Magic of 76.4% Fibonacci ratio!

Bottom Line: Nifty is following the magic of 76.4% with every alternate waves relating to prior by 76.4%.

Each of the markets has their own individual identity and characteristics.We have to understand the patterns, Fibonacci ratios, price structure that is inherent to that specific market. A specific indictor or Time cycle might work very well for one market but might not work at all for another. It is therefore necessary to see the price movements and feel the charts rather than simply applying a generic technique.

The below article shows the power of 76.4% Fibonacci ratio that Nifty follows very closely and since very long time!

Nifty daily chart:

Wave Analysis:

Magic of 76.4%: Nifty after the strong downtrend from 6340 to 6210 on 2^nd January has been constantly moving in a narrow range. It made a low near 6140 and has been managing to protect the zone of 6130 – 6140. The low made by wave (a) was also near 6130 level. Apparently there was no other evidence for such important support at this level which forced us to measure the relationship between alternate waves. Nifty has for many years respected the levels of 76.4% and 23.6%.

A close observation reveals that each of the up move is 76.4% of previous up leg and each of the down move is 76.4% of previous down leg. The daily chart is clearly showing this measurement. The level of 6130 is exact 76.4% of prior down wave x. From the lows of 5118 each of the waves has followed this Fibonacci relationship. So for downtrend to continue Nifty has to break this phenomenon and move below 6130. Failure to do that will indicate an up move towards ………. (76.4% of prior up wave a is possible).

Short term possibilities: Nifty formed a Doji bar on Friday. The follow-up action today will provide clues on short term direction. Break below the Doji low and 6130 will be sign of weakness and indicate wave c of the Flat correction is ongoing and wave iii of c has started. However, wave ii has consumed lot of time, also Time cycle is due tomorrow or Wednesday and so we are now having little apprehension for validity of this scenario.

If Nifty manages to protect 6130 and closes above 6230 then the other possibility is that a triangle pattern is currently ongoing within the blue trendline shown on 60 mins chart or the upside trend towards ……….. (channel resistance) / ………. (76.4% level) has started.

The above research report was published on January 13, 2014 before equity markets opened. This research report clearly mentioned the crucial level any trader should watch and accordingly formalize the trading strategy for the day. To know what more things are working on Indian markets and where it is headed from here subscribe to “The Financial Waves short term update” our flagship product and get daily research emails in morning. For subscription simply visit the Pricing Page and we will set you up for your daily research reports.

Applying Bollinger Bands® on Nifty for crucial levels!

The below article is picked up from the daily research report 'The Financial Waves short term update" by Waves Strategy Advisors. For more information visit http://www.wavesstrategy.com/

The strong 3 days of up move is almost retraced completely today. Such sharp reversals can result into sideways action and Bollinger Bands provide very important support and resistance levels during such period.

The below chart clearly shows how we have been applying Channels and Bollinger Bands together in addition to Elliott wave principle (shown in actual research report along with 60 minschart)

Nifty daily chart:

Wave Analysis:

The below was published today morning in “The Financial Waves short term update” a daily publication sent directly on your email before market opens.

In previous update we mentioned that, “In short, amidst the contrary signals and indications it is better to wait for either 6200 to break on upside or 6050 followed by 5970 to break on downside for clear trend to emerge.”

Nifty had another Gap down opening and prices quickly moved towards the first support level of 6050 – 6040. The selling accelerated once this support zone was broken and prices made a low of 5985 and closed near day’s low. The selling pressure was seen across the sectors and the overall breadth of the market deteriorated.

On short term charts, RSI indicator has now reached the oversold zone below 30. This can result into sideways action or minor bounce back. Also previous close observation of price movement shows that Nifty has a tendency to break the important lows but just to move down towards immediate minor support and bounce back from there. This formation we term as an “h” pattern.

Bollinger Bands: The lower end of the daily Bollinger Bands is also near 5910 levels. We are expecting sideways action and so applying Bollinger Bands to get the judgment of important support. If, however, the strong downtrend starts this technique will not work.

In short, given the oversold condition on indicators minor bounce cannot be ruled out from here but any break below 5970 will open up possibility for …….. On upside 6050 will act as an important resistance which was previously acting as good support (polarity reversal). These levels were mentioned in the morning before markets opened

Happened today: Today’s high on Nifty is 6049.60 and low of 5972.80. We cannot be more accurate than this!!!

To get such important levels on daily basis even for stocks along with Nifty subscribe to the “The Financial Waves short term update” research report. Simply visit the Pricing page and select this research report. We will start your subscription instantly. For any more information write to us at helpdesk@Wavesstrategy.com or call us at +91 22 28831358 / +91 9920422202. 

Applying Fibonacci Series in Stock Market..

Applying Fibonacci Series in Stock Market

Following article is published by Waves Strategy Advisors. For more information visit www.wavesstrategy.com

Fibonacci numbers are commonly used in Technical Analysis with or without knowledge of Eliott Wave analysis to determine potential support, resistance, and price objectives. The Fibonacci series is a numerical sequence comprised of adding the previous numbers together, i.e. (1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144,233 etc..). 

An interesting property of these numbers is that as the series proceeds, any given number is 1.618 times the preceding number and 0.618% of the next number.

Following properties are usually used for Fibonacci retracements:

·         38.2% retracement is common in wave 4

·         61.8% retracements is common in wave 2

We find these numbers everywhere in nature as well as stock market.If we look closely, we can see patterns in almost everything around us. Some of the examples are shown in the below picture

The price movements of financial markets are also patterned, and Elliott wave analysis gives you the tools to interpret those patterns. Once you understand the Fibonacci sequence, it's easy to apply it to the markets you trade.

The below excerpt is from our daily publication of Equity report- “The Financial Waves Short term update” which gives a clear picture of how well Fibonacci is applied along with Elliott waves.

BHEL 120 mins chart:

Waves Analysis:

As shown above in 120 mins chart of BHEL, from October to December 2012 prices have been moving in a range of 220-250 levels.  61.8% retracement of the previous up move from 195 to 275 levels comes near 220 levels. Three times prices have approached this level and bounced back on upside. This is the strength of Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8% which has worked precisely in this stock.

To know what we expect from here and how to forecast using Elliott wave and Fibonacci projections subscribe to daily research reports in Equity, Commodity & Currency or register for Distance learning training module for Elliott wave by writing to us at helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com or you can call us on +91 9920422202.

Nifty can move sideways to down for the week but medium trend is up!

Bottom Line: Nifty continued to have gap down action. Bias over short term is sideways to negative!

Nifty Daily chart:

       

Nifty 60 mins chart:

Waves Analysis:

Nifty had a gap down opening yesterday and prices drifted lower. Nifty opened at 5280 level which we had mentioned as crucial which was then taken out on downside. Prices stayed around another crucial level of 5250 before finally closing near 5235. The move has been steep and so the bias over short term is now negative. However the next support zone is now at 5200 which is the gap up area. Prices can try and fill this gap.

As we have said before, the trend down can be overlapping and it will be difficult to trade on downside since we are correcting the up move from 4650 to 5630 levels. Many of the stocks are exhibiting that their cycle lows are approaching around 16^th April 2012. This suggests that we can have more of sideways to down action rather than impulsive strong moves this week.

As shown on 60 mins chart, we are moving in a well-defined corrective black channel and this on smaller scale can be seen as abc – x – abc type of formation and we are in wave a of second correction. This means we can move down little more today near 5200 - 5210 levels and should consolidate or move in a range for remaining of the day to complete wave b of 2^nd corrective. This outlook remains valid as long as black channel is intact and prices do not exhibit steep selloff below 5200 levels.

For strong trend on downside, 5135 level should be broken today and failure to do that will suggest sideways action for the week with prices ultimately resolving on the upside. 5135 level is also a confluence of many Fibonacci Price – Time relationship and so exhibits very important level.

In short, given the gap down action the bias is negative as long as prices are below 5285 but Nifty can move in a range for the week. Trading on short side might be difficult due to complex corrective nature.