Trading Gold: Using the concept of Channels, Horizontal lines and RSI!

Precious metals – Gold and Silver had been in an impulsive downtrend. During such times it is best to adopt a few basic but important methods to time the entry for short term trading.

Look at the below chart of MCX Gold where we have applied the concept of Channels, RSI and Horizontal line. A confluence of these simple methods can help one to derive good trade setup.

MCX Gold hourly chart:

The above shows a simple method where we can see amazing application of channels along with horizontal line concept and Relative strength index (RSI) indicator.

An ideal trade setup would be for the short positions as the overall trend over past few days is negative. It is wisely said to trade in the direction of the trend as the line of least resistance is on downside.

Now when prices break below the support horizontal line and reverses from the channel resistance as well that is the ideal trade setup. We can see reversal in RSI as well during such time. We also keep a track on price movement on COMEX Gold to have high conviction.

Price has again arrived near the channel resistance and is on the verge of reversal from there. It is about to break below the short term red channel support and RSI is also on the verge of reversal. So is it time to go short on GOLD?

Get access to Intraday / Positional advisory on commodity where we shoot the calls via sms or yahoo with complete follow-up. Always remember trading is never a certainty and will involve risk. So maintaining strict stoploss is must and if you are not able to do that one trade can eat up all your profits. Also when someone talks about 99% accuracy think again! You think it is really that easy when we are forecasting the future. I agree there are times when your accuracy is around 95% for certain period but that too will not last long. It is best to be conservative and maintaining it near the zone of 70% – 85% is what can result into overall profitable trades.

Subscribe now to Intraday calls of Commodity and get the research report free along with it. Know more here

P.S. 2 days to go for seminar on How to derive trades using simple methods to advanced technical analysis… Know more

Nifty scenario analysis – Applying Bollinger Bands®, Moving averages, Wave theory!

Nifty has been moving violently between important levels but has managed to protect the support and resistance all the while.

Nifty had a positive start yesterday and prices touched intraday high of 10279 levels. However, post 1 pm the selling pressure started building up and there was a sharp fall towards 10110 levels. This was a fall of nearly 170 points from the highs in short span of time. The fall was across the board with high beta indices also losing more than 1%. The selling emerged after the announcement of China imposing additional tariff on U.S. products worth 50 bln USD. The short term news events are resulting into random and volatile movement but prices are still trading within a range on net basis.

Nifty 60 mins chart: Preferred counts

The below research is picked up from daily equity report – The Financial Waves short term update

Following is the Nifty scenario analysis:

Scenario 1 – This is our preferred scenario as the majority of stocks are still lying near the support areas and the stocks like SBI, Tata Motors, BHEL that were leading the fall had shown faster retracement above the last falling segment. So there is possibility that Nifty has not completed wave g but it is in its final stages and move back above the high of 10280 will confirm this.

As shown on hourly chart, Nifty is back towards its Bollinger bands support and it failed to close above the same during the day. Also the reversal came from red channel resistance. This increase the odds that wave g is forming an Extracting triangle pattern and post its completion we will see a positive breakout. We will stay with this as preferred scenario as long as strong momentum with break of 10000 is not seen from here.

Scenario 2 – (shown in actual research report) ……….

So for now it is best to wait for a clear trend to emerge as prices are whipsawing around crucial areas thereby creating a challenging trading environment. Now a decisive move back above ……… will result into a positive breakout. Yesterday’s close is back towards the Bollinger bands support area which is at 10120 zone. Let us see if there is a positive attempt in today’s session thereby resulting into no net progress but high volatile movement.

In short, Nifty can continue to trade within ……….. levels. Buying near supports and selling near resistance is going to be the best strategy for now unless a decisive breakout in either direction is seen. We will stay with scenario 1 as preferred count for now and only a break below …….. will force us to adopt scenario 2…

To know what is the scenario 2 in case prices reverse again and what are the positive targets from here on get access now to “The Financial Waves short term update” We turned bullish near 9950 amidst all the pessimism and Nifty is already at 10280 levels. So what is next from here? Subscribe NOW annually and get 3 months of Monthly research report along with it. Visit here

How to trade Nifty in coming week using Technical Analysis

Which pattern Nifty is forming using Elliott wave.Applying Technical indicators on chart.Visit https://www.wavesstrategy.com and see yourself different Technical indicators applied on charts of #Nifty, #BankNifty, #Stocks

How to do trade stocks like DLF using channels, moving average, wave theory?

In Technical analysis, Channels, Moving averages and Elliott wave theory provide very good combination to identify the trend and trade setup.

Below is the research that shows how all of the above methods had been combined together to trade DLF. It is amazing to see at times when these methods work so precisely irrespective of the movement in broader markets.

The below research is picked up from “The Financial waves short term update” published on 21^st December 2017 morning.

DLF 60 mins chart: as per chart published on 26^th December 2017

Happened as of 26^th December

Following is a gist of the research published on 21^st December

Elliott Wave analysis:

Anticipated – “As shown in daily chart, (shown in actual research report to paid clients) we can see that prices are breaking above the upper blue trendline as well. And it is now moving in the modified black channel. The 20 period EMA is providing crucial support at 230 levels. From wave perspective we can see bigger degree wave z in matured stage.

As shown in hourly chart, the rise witnessed in DLF is sharp in nature indicating momentum is building on upside keeping bias positive. Prices have bounced back from its support trendline showing how well the channel techniques work. As long as support of 230 is maintained on downside one can use creating long position for move towards 255 levels.

In short, DLF trend is positive as long as 230 is intact for a move towards 255.”

Happened: DLF moved precisely as expected. Prices achieved the target of 255 and has now arrived near the channel resistance. So what is next from here?

Charting Tool: Plot your chart on DLF

The above research clearly highlights how one can use the methods of technical analysis and trade on stocks. Get detailed insight into the entire research as there are opportunities everyday depending on which stock is showing good pattern. “The Financial waves short term update” in our flagship research report containing Nifty, Bank Nifty and stocks using not only above but many more methods of forecasting. See yourself how this is helping our existing subscribers. Subscribe NOW!

Is Nifty uptrend in danger? Time to stay alert!

Nifty came close to 10500 levels but failed to take out the highs. It is very important for you to look at the objective Technical analysis methods like Elliott wave, Channels.

In my latest webinar published on 3^rd November 2017 I mentioned clearly why it is prudent to not get carried away and stay alert. You can see this yourself: How to trade Nifty from here? Will confluence of channels work again?

It seems the confluence of channels that I talked about in the video update worked out very well so far. It is now time to keep a close tab on the important short term support levels to see if the same can be protected or not.

Nifty 60 mins chart:

Over past few days we have been alerting our subscribers of daily equity research reports – The Financial Waves short term update to keep an eye on important levels and not to leverage much.

In 6^th November morning we mentioned that “In short, price movement in this week is important. Let us see if prices can manage to build momentum even above 10500 – 10550 levels where multiple trendlines are intersecting. Failure to do that might result into distribution action. Keep a watch on …….. as short term support in this week.”

We have been using Channelling technique along with indepth analysis using Advanced Elliott wave – Neo wave to understand the maturity of trend. If the support levels are now broken decisively we will get another set of selloff similar to that seen in August and late September.

So, it is now time to be alert and monitor closely if the support levels mentioned in the daily research report is taken out for short term reversal confirmation. The confluence of channel has worked out brilliantly and it has helped us to caution our readers and subscribers when majority of others have been complacent.

Subscribe NOW “The Financial Waves short term update” that provide detailed Elliott wave analysis on Nifty, Bank Nifty, stocks with important support and resistance levels. In case you would like to get Intraday / Positional Stock tips register now and get research free along with it.

How to trade Nifty from here? Will confluence of channels work again?

I am sure being a trader you will look at the charts and use various indicators.

I have been speaking at lot of corporate and was surprised to see majority tend to leave basic techniques like Channels after they move on to the advanced levels.

In this webinar you can see how price targets can be arrived by using the most basic yet fundamental to technical – Power of Channelling technique

I tend to combine this basic building block with advanced concepts of Elliott wave and Neo wave. 

Have a wonderful weekend and do share across your findings using above technique at our Trader’s Forum

You can visit our Charting page here and plot the charts yourself.

Nifty trend- What is next post GST?

Look at what should be Nifty trading strategy post GST? Also see various technical analysis methods like Channels, RSI, Elliott wave applied on charts of Nifty.

For more research updates register at https://www.wavesstrategy.com

Is Nifty in danger zone? Technical analysis applied with Elliott wave

Nifty is flirting at very important level from technical analysis perspective. Refer Elliott wave channel for more videos

Elliott wave pattern, Time cycles, Channels, indicators, most of the advanced concepts are all getting aligned together.

"The Financial Waves short term update" is our flagship research report that shows detailed technical analysis using Elliott wave and other advanced concepts and indicators. Subscribe NOW by visiting www.wavesstrategy.com

ICICI Bank: Combination of Elliott wave, Time Cycles, Trendlines, Channels, MACD!

Technical analysis applied on stocks – ICICI Bank. The below research shows application of Elliott wave, Time cycles, Channels and MACD.

Stock market exhibits the cyclical nature and to understand the same we apply different Time cycles to know if important top or low is in place or not. As per Hurst’s Time cycles, capturing the low can be easier than top as distribution process takes time and hence validity of cycles can be in question.

Nevertheless we follow normal cycles also which works well on particular stock or index. Below we have shown example of ICICI Bank which is taken from “The Financial Waves Short Term Update” which was published in today’s morning report. Here we have shown 69 days Time cycles which is working as topping cycle since April 2016.

Isn’t it interesting to see that how precisely this stock is following time cycles?  

ICICI Bank daily chart:

(Part of research published today morning)

Wave analysis:

“Stocks like Axis Bank and ICICI Bank has been moving in non trending environment from last few days. Looking at the short term structure of these stocks and failure of Bank Nifty to generate the upside momentum, there is high probability that distribution might be under process. However it is better to wait for price confirmation which will guide the trend ahead.

As shown in daily chart ICICI Bank, it has been trading in expanding structure since April 2016 and from last few days prices are moving in the range as it has tested the important trendline resistance. Along with this, Time cycle of 69 days which has formed crucial tops and this time also cycle looks to have worked well as prices have not taken out resistance area. MACD is already showing negativity as it has given sell signal. Now break below pivot low will confirm that downside trend has started.

(60 mins chart is not shown here which shows internal wave structure)

As shown in 60 mins chart, prices have till now completed double correction pattern and post that some pressure has been witnessed in last few sessions. The current downfall has broken the channel support and move below …… will indicate that retracement on downside in form of minor wave … of third standard correction has started.

In short, ………….

Elliott wave, Time Cycles and other basic technical concepts can help traders to form trading strategies with prudent risk reward ratio. Get your copy of “The Financial Waves Short Term Update” which covers in-depth research on Nifty and 3 stocks on daily basis.

Most Advanced Technical analysis training EVER – Nifty has arrived at important juncture and despite majority turned bullish prices have not headed anywhere over past two weeks. This looks like a classical case of distribution. During such times it is prudent to learn the methods and indicators that help us to time the turn and capture the trend when it is just starting. Learn Elliott – Neo wave combined with Hurst’s time cycles and Gann analysis. I will be discussing various methods I personally follow to derive at trading decisions. Training is scheduled on 29th – 30th July 2017. Know More

Nifty Elliott wave and power of channels!

Bottom Line: Nifty continued to find to cling to the upper trendline of channel. Let us see if momentum can build up from here or fizzles out!

Nifty daily chart:

Nifty 60 mins chart:

Wave analysis:

In previous update we mentioned that “Nifty has continued to trade near the important channel resistance and stay alert. Close above 9650 is must to continue the rally whereas move below 9580 followed by 9545 will indicate that wave b has started on downside.”

Nifty continued to move in a range as expected and is simply clinging onto the upper trendline of the channel. The resistance as per this line is shifting higher since it is upward sloping and now it is at the zone of 9660 on upside.

A very important observation is that the premium on Futures has reduced drastically which is demanding mere 5 points premium against the underlying spot. During strong trends we have observed futures premium to be in the zone 30 to 50 points when expiry is that far away. It is important to keep a tab on this indicator over next few days.

As shown on hourly chart, prices continue to cling to the trendline. RSI is exhibiting minor negative divergence but there is no price confirmation. Break below 9545 will indicate that wave a is over and wave b is starting on downside.

From trading perspective the most important aspect is to identify the pattern under formation. After completing second wave x near 9342 on 21^st May prices are now in third standard pattern. There is high probability that this pattern will develop as a Triangle since complex correction normally ends with a triangle or a wedge pattern but it is only an assumption. Next few days of price action is going to be important which will provide clarity on the ongoing structure.

Nifty can continue to consolidate as long as 9660 and 9545 levels are protected. So Buying near supports and selling near resistances can be a good strategy to capture small moves during the day.  Selective stock movement has continued where only a few stocks are helping index to stay at elevated levels. Nevertheless, there is no negative price confirmation as of now.

In short, break below 9545 will indicate that wave b has started. Price and time taken by this wave b will confirm the entire pattern. If wave b consumes lesser time than wave a and retraces less than 50% of wave a then chances of Diametric pattern is high whereas more than 50% retracement of wave a will increase the probability of Triangle formation.

The volatility is going to increase in next few days and in this volatility one should not get carried away and following the important reversal area along with pattern is vital. Subscribe to “The Financial Waves Short Term Update” which covers Nifty and 3 stocks on daily basis. 

How to trade Nifty using Indicators and Channels?

Subscribe NOW to the daily equity research report and get the Monthly research absolutely free over the period of 12 months. At times it is important to know the Elliott wave counts right from hourly charts to the monthly charts which give holistic perspective from trading to investments decisions! Get your copy NOW

Webinar: How to plot Channels, Fibonacci, Cycles on Charts!

#ElliottWave news channel is a short video series. Ashish Kyal of http://www.wavesstrategy.com/ will be going live weekly at 4 pm every Friday. Stay tuned to know the current technical state of markets and learn more on advanced concepts of Elliott wave, #Neowave and #TimeCycle

Get access to daily Equity, Commodity, Forex research reports using Elliott wave, Time cycles, Advanced Technical analysis concepts. For more details visit www.wavesstrategy.com 

Nifty: Path ahead in 2017 with Intraday trading strategies!

Below research highlights how to trade Nifty on intraday basis using time tested methods like Elliott wave, Channels, basic technical indicators.

Until last week there was extreme pessimism among market participants as Nifty was moving lower and violated the earlier lows 7915 level. However we continuously mentioned in our daily update that prices have one leg on upside pending as per Elliott wave pattern. Nifty made a low at 7893 and then reversed sharply on upside. We at Waves Strategy Advisors have coined a pattern as “h shaped pattern”. This pattern is identified by us (not in text book) on many occasions. It takes the shape of “h” where prices retest the earlier lows with less momentum and then reverses on upside to trap the bears.

Look at the below chart that was shown in our Monthly research report on 6^th December 2016:

Nifty daily chart

Happened so far:

The above chart clearly explains irrespective of the events Nifty moved closely to the path shown in the “The Financial Waves Monthly research report” published on 6^th December. It formed an “h” shaped pattern and reversed back after turning majority bearish. The above research is only to showcase the power of the study and the predictability it carries. There is more to it.

January 2017 is going to be highly volatile and a strong trending month if our readings are correct. It is time to have the trading strategies in place to capitalize the ongoing medium term and short term trend. Many believe intraday trading cannot be done using Elliott wave. Now below is a concrete proof of how we helped our subscribers capture the intraday swings. The following is published in “The Financial Waves trading update”

Here are the Intraday trading strategies of last few days which has exactly moved in lines with our expectations.

Strategy of 26^th December 2016: Short positions can be created on move below 7940 with day's high as stop and target of 7900.

Happened: Nifty broke below 7940 and moved below target level.

Strategy of 27^th December 2016: For today, Long positions can be created only on move above 7960 with 7920 as stop and target of 8000.

Happened: Nifty moved higher exactly as expected and crossed above the target level of 8000.

Strategy of 28^th December 2016: For today, long positions can be created if Nifty sustains above 8050 for 30 minutes with 8000 as stop and target of 8100.

Happened: Nifty moved exactly as expected and touched intraday high of 8100.55 levels.

Strategy of 29^th December 2016: For today, long positions can be created if Nifty move towards 8020 and then bounces back above 8060 with 8020 as stop and target of 8100.

Happened: Nifty has been moving exactly as expected and prices after forming a low exactly near 8020, crossed above 8060 and achieved the target of 8100.

Strategy of 30^th December 2016: For today, long positions can be created on move above 8115 with 8060 as stop and target of 8170.

Happened: In today’s session Nifty has touched the high of 8180 level which has achieved our mentioned target level.

The above successful strategy clearly shows that our research tools such as Elliott wave, Time cycles and basic technical indicators has continued to work well and helping us to build accurate intraday trading strategies along with long term forecasts.

Still thinking! Now get both the above research reports – Monthly update and Nifty trading strategy for FREE. Yes, you will get these research reports at no additional charge under “New Year Offer” until 31^st December 2016 11:59 pm, if you subscribe to our flagship product “The Financial Waves short term update”. Time is running out not only for the offer but for markets as well. The strong trend is now about to emerge in January that will be surprise or a shocker to majority! For subscription options simply visit the Pricing page and select “Equity research report” and Period as 12 months to avail this offer which is INR 24000 /- worth of FREE research report. We will take it from there! Get prepared for a roller coaster ride!!! For more details Contact US or write to us at helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com

Top 3 stock charts for Swing trading based on Dow Theory, Channels, Moving averages!

Below article shows how swing trading can be done based on trend identification using technical analysis concepts & indicators like Dow Theory, Channels, Moving average and RSI.

There are different types of traders in a Financial markets.  The one who buy and sell in a single day is called an Intraday trader. A variation to that are the ones who capture the swing based on demand and supply and rides the short term trend as long as it goes with trailing stop method. As compared to Intraday trading, Swing trading is less emotionally challenging as it does not require constant watch on market once you have a strong research based system in place that provides entry, exit and profit taking strategies. 

Below we have shown 3 stocks and explained how Swing trading is possible based on Technical concepts like Channels, Moving averages and RSI.

Ajanta Pharma 60 mins chart:

The above 60 mins chart of Ajanta Pharma suggests that since October 2016 downward trend is ongoing. For swing traders it is important to trade in the direction of medium term trend which is negative from last 3 months. Looking at the channel support, any rally towards 1830 - 1840 along with negative bar formation near the channel resistance is going to provide shorting opportunity for swing traders. This will also ensure proper risk reward strategy. Reason to avoid buying is that the medium term trend is negative which is indicated by Moving average and channel. So the best of the trend can be captured in downward direction and so once the stock reaches the resistance levels and reverses from there we will get amazing risk reward ratio for big profits!

Mindtree 60 mins chart:

As opposed to above chart of Ajanta Pharma that shows downtrend, Mindtree on the other hand is clearly showing higher highs and higher lows that confirms that the trend is up. This simple technique is explained as per DOW Theory which is the foundation of Technical analysis.

Since start of November 2016 Mindtree is managing to protect the pivot lows. The stock has potential to reach towards the upper end of the channel near 540 – 545 levels as long as the pivot lows are protected.

Just Dial 60 mins chart:

It is interesting to see how two stocks from same sector can behave so differently. Justdial has continued to move lower in medium to long term downtrend. The outlook is similar to that of Ajanta Pharma shown above which is any pullback towards the level of 350 – 360 will provide good shorting opportunity once we see reversal signs from there. Channeling technique along with RSI is working well to capture the swings in the direction of trend.

The above charts simply represent how one needs to be patient for the trade setup to take place before pulling the trigger. We in our daily research report “The Financial Waves short term update” cover the important index stocks along with Nifty that shows application of Elliott wave, advanced technical analysis as well. Subscribe now and avail the NEW YEAR Offer in which on subscription of Equity research report you will get Monthly research report along with Nifty trading strategy absolutely Free. For more details Contact US here or write to us at helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com or whatsapp on +91 9920422202, Tel:  +91 22 28831358.

Tata Motors inverse Head & Shoulder pattern and Elliott wave counts!

Below article gives detailed technical analysis on Tata Motors with concepts like Channels, Trendline, Elliott wave, Pattern.

Indian Equity markets have been able to digest the negative news so far especially when it is on back of a Global event. BREXIT, US Trump outcome, FED rate hike all of these events resulted only into a temporary move on downside and prices recovered back sharply on same or next day. This clearly highlights the fact that news or events do not drive the markets but only produces short term volatility or random moves. The original trend eventually resumes and it is therefore important to understand the objective techniques like Elliott wave, Time cycles, crucial support and resistance levels.

Let us look at how a few of these methods can be applied on stocks like Tata Motors. The below chart is picked up from our daily research report “The Financial Waves short term update”

Tata Motors 60 mins chart:

Wave analysis: (below research is from report published on 14^th December 2016)

Despite of Tata Group being in news in the recent days, Tata Motors managed to close at the second position in the top gainers list. The reason can be contributed to the buying of Tata Motors near 486 levels by Tata Sons but as per the chart itself we were seeing accumulation pattern over past few weeks.

Now looking at the daily chart of Tata Motors (shown in actual research report), minor wave a is complete and now wave b of (X) has started on upside. This wave b can retrace towards …… levels which is also the Gap area created on back of the news or event few weeks back.

On 60 mins chart we can see that, post breaching the red channel support prices failed to move lower and completed minor wave a at the lows of 430 levels. Currently retracement of the previous down leg is ongoing in the form of minor wave b. Prices have now re-entered the channel. Another important thing to notice is that this stock has formed an inverse Head & Shoulder pattern and just managed to break the neckline which adds on to near term positivity.

In short for Tata Motors, near term trend will be positive as far as the recent low of 450 levels is intact. On upside, prices should continue to rally towards …… levels which is the head target and also the 61.8% retracement zone.

Subscribe NOW to “The Financial Waves short term update” to see crucial turning juncture and how to trade Nifty, Bank Nifty, stocks amidst all the negative news using important support and resistance levels. Simply visit Pricing page and select equity research report. Also subscribe annually and get Flat 30% discount with Free Global research report!

Bank of India: Application of Elliott wave, Channels, Moving average

Bank of India had been a major dragger for many years within the PSU banking space. Below article explains Application of Elliott wave, Channels along with Moving average and other technical analysis studies.

Below research is picked up from “The Financial Waves short term update” dated 25^th November 2016 which contains detailed technical analysis on Nifty, Bank Nifty, stocks.

Bank of India weekly chart:

Bank of India daily chart:

Bank of India 60 mins chart:

Wave analysis:

Bank of India has moved higher from 80 to 130 levels over past few months however long term chart suggest that this stock is in long term down trend and up move witnessed in current year is only the retracement of the prior down move.

The weekly chart since 2010 indicates that intermediate wave Y is ongoing which is forming Triple standard correction pattern. The bounce back witnessed from 80 level in start of 2016 is slow and corrective in nature which suggests that another wave (x) is ongoing. Hence one should be cautious before investing in PSU banks and should have strict stop loss. From medium term perspective, stock has resistance at 150 level which is also coinciding with black channel resistance.

As shown in daily chart, prices are forming complex correction pattern since the low made near 80 level. From the start of November 2016 minute wave z is ongoing which looks to be subdividing further.

As shown in 60 mins chart, post the steep rise from 100 to 130 levels price are showing corrective down move. This indicates that wave b (red color) is ongoing. In last session recovery was witnessed but move above …… is required to start the up move.

In short, …………..

Subscribe NOW to “The Financial Waves short term update” and see yourself why we cautioned our clients about reversal from 7900 support zone when majority were expecting a move towards 7500 on Nifty with detailed application of Elliott wave charts and other studies. Visit Pricing Page and get your copy of the research now!