MCX Crude: Intermediate top formed near 5100?

MCX Crude has shown an exponential rise from the lows of 4600 levels. We have been using Elliot wave combined with moving averages and RSI indicator. This helps in increasing accuracy of capturing a particular swing.

Below is research published in our daily report “The Commodity Waves STU” wherein we successfully captured the move from 4980 towards 5050 levels.

MCX Crude Sep 60 min chart: Anticipated as on 11^th September (morning).           

    

MCX Crude Sep 60 min chart: Happened as on 12^th September (morning)   

 

     

(Below is the extract taken from Commodity report published in the morning of 11^thSeptember, 2018)

Wave analysis:

Anticipated:As shown in the hourly chart of MCX Crude, prices are moving in wave (g) of which minor wave a has completed on upside and next leg on downside in for of wave b is ongoing. So we can expect range-bound to negative movement in coming sessions. Only break above 4980 will turn the bias positive. In short, trend for Crude is at crucial juncture. Break above 4980 can take the prices towards higher levels of 5050 whereas move towards 4820 levels can be expected.

Happened: Prices have managed to give a break above 4980 levels indicating, completion of wave b on downside and made a high near 50.

To know what will be the next move and till how far the rally of wave c will be, subscribe to our commodity report “The Commodity Waves STU” which is published in the morning on daily basis. Also get to know about precious metals like Gold and Silver and base metal like Copper, Lead, Zinc etc.- Know more

Moving averages: How can it be used to form trend following system?

Moving averages are basic yet powerful tool to stay in the trend. In this webinar see how one can use multiple averages to stay in the trend. Visit https://www.wavesstrategy.com

Bank Nifty: How precisely RSI and Elliott wave can be combined?

Nifty and Sensex continue to trade in new uncharted territory and Bank Nifty also showed a strong rise after making a low near 27800 levels.

There are simple indicators that can help in capturing the short term reversal and if you combine it with Elliott wave short term pattern it can provide a great insight and trade setup.

Look at the below chart of Bank Nifty which was published in daily equity report “The Financial waves short term update” on 27th August 2018 morning:

Bank Nifty 60 mins chart: Anticipated on 27th August before equity markets opened

Happened:

Elliott Wave analysis: Following was published on 27th August 2018 morning before markets opened

On hourly chart, the previous down move in the index led the prices to break the upward sloping channel which was working pretty well previously.  Currently we are seeing wave b ongoing which looks to be matured. Also, the RSI is quoting at 30 levels exactly the level from where we have seen bounce in the prices in the previous instances. But one needs to stay cautious and wait for price confirmation for taking long positions.

In short, Bank Nifty is at crucial juncture and a break above 28000 is expected to take the prices towards 28200 – 28300 levels whereas a move below 27765 …………

Happened: Bank Nifty reversed back on upside even though it broke below the channel support. This clearly shows that how one can use RSI and Elliott wave combine together to form trading strategy.

Get access to “The Financial Waves short term update” and see yourself why it is important to use trend following method in the ongoing euphoria and avoid shorting unless the support levels are taken out. There have been slow down in momentum but there had been no price confirmation yet for reversal. So what is next? See yourself here

Subscribe to Intraday / Positional advisory on stocks where there is intraday trading opportunity across the stocks. Register for trial here

Reliance Multibagger stock with 77% returns in just over a year!

Reliance Industries has been outperforming since Nifty started its journey on the upside and also is amongst the top stocks which has helped Nifty to hold the apex.

We published about Reliance Industries on April 2017 and predicted a possibility of Multibagger returns. The stock gave almost 77% from the levels given in just over a year. So, irrespective it is a largecap we were able to capture a strong up move.

We were able to predict its move with the help of Time Cycle and Elliott wave techniques.  Prices post forming a triangle pattern gave a break on the upside in the form of primary degree wave 5. 

See yourself the chart of Reliance Industrieswhich rose from the level of 700 to 1236

Reliance Industries Weekly chart: adjusted for split (anticipated in April, 2017)

Reliance Industries Weekly chart: Happened

The above research about Reliance Industries was published on 04th April 2017

(Here is a part of research taken from research report.)

Reliance Industries the third most profitable company and is one of the highest volume traded stocks on NSE. This stock carries weightage of 6.78% which is the second highest market capitalization after TCS. 

On the above weekly chart, currently primary wave III is completing its course and further subdividing in 5 legs. Wave 3 of the same completed at the life time highs of 1500 (before split) levels in 2007 after that wave 4 completed its course within the contracting structure near the channel support at 1012 (before split) levels. Now wave 5 has started its course on upside which should be impulsive in nature, so this is the correct time to enter this stock in staggered fashion from medium to long term perspective to experience an impulsive segment.

??? weeks bottoming cycleis suiting brilliantly to the above chart and all the major lows are made near the same in the past. As per this cycle bottom was made in the mid 2015 and the next is due in ……. so the outlook as per this technique would be positive.

In a nutshell, cluster of evidences like channelized technique, Elliott wave counts, time cycles, moving average line indicate that the next Bull Run has begun in this stock from medium to long term perspective. Important support is placed at …. levels near the channel support, on upside we should continue to see a multiyear’s bull trend towards …… levels where intermediate wave 5=wave 1.

Happened: Reliance moved precisely as expected and gave a return of more than 77% that too in just over a year. Also the risk associated with this largecap was minimal at the time we published it.

So, which are the next Multibagger stocks that will increase your portfolio value over the years to come by strongly outperforming the broader markets?

A Multibagger is not necessarily only from Midcap or Smallcap space but if you are able to identify the stock from largecap that is on the verge of giving a breakout from multiyear consolidation it can also provide tremendous returns. The above is a classic example and no one dared to forecast Reliance thinking where will Nifty head if Reliance increased multi-fold. You have the proof now!!

Get access to “The Multibagger research report” and create your own portfolio of stocks that have potential to give multifold returns. It is a systematic and probabilistic scenario using Elliott wave, Time cycles and fundamental parameters like PE ratio.

Get upto 50% off on Equity, Commodity, Multibagger services.  Avail the latest Independence Day offer and get discount upto 50%. Register here

Nifty at Inflexion point, You cannot miss this next big move!

Nifty, Bank Nifty are at very important juncture. What is the technical analysis suggesting? Visit https://www.wavesstrategy.com for detailed analysis using Elliott wave, Neo wave

Bank Nifty: How to use Parabolic SAR for identifying key support?

Nifty and Bank Nifty both continue to trade near lifetime high levels. During such moves the best method to follow is to use trailing stop method from positional trading perspective.

Below you can see the chart of Bank Nifty along with Elliott wave pattern and a trend following method using Parabolic SAR.

Bank Nifty daily chart:

Elliott Wave analysis:

The following was published today morning in “The Financial Waves short term update”

In previous trading session Bank Nifty had a minor positive opening near 27920 levels. It has managed to cross 28000 levels making a new high near 28120 levels and closed on a positive note near 28062 levels.

As shown on daily chart of Bank Nifty, we are showing parabolic stop and reversal indicator which determines the price direction and the reversal point. As of now, SAR is providing stop near 27524 levels, so from short term basis this level can be used as an important support level.

As shown on the hourly chart, (showed in morning research report)

In short, …….. Existing long positions can trail stop towards 27750 but fresh longs should be initiated with caution.

We keep juggling around different methods and indicators depending on the market trend. This is the time when one needs to keep riding the long positions with trailing stop method. Get access to “The Financial Waves short term update” and see yourself the key levels on Nifty, Bank Nifty, stocks. Also subscribe for a year and get monthly update free along with it. Subscribe NOW

Nifty: Gann projection level and PE ratio alert!

Nifty has touched the unprecedented levels and the valuations have reached sky rocket. The PE ratio of index has crossed back above 28 levels!

For us charts convey lot of information. In the past we have seen how markets behave when PE ratio crossed above 28 mark. It was in the year 2000 and later 2008. The euphoria has been on a rise but deliverable volumes are low. Many are still stuck in Midcap and Smallcap stocks and are waiting for them to recover.

We use advanced technical tools like Elliott wave, Neo wave, Time cycles and much more. Look at the below chart published in the latest monthly research report – The Financial Waves monthly update

Nifty Gann projection levels:

Nifty Gann projection

Nifty PE ratio:

Nifty PE ratio

Below is the part of research picked up from “The Financial waves monthly update”

Euphoria – Mania returns to equity markets –

Nifty had a strong rise in the month of July and prices moved from the lows of 10604 to 11366 thereby making new life time highs. During this period we can also see Sensex and Bank Nifty also touching new highs. The reason why we are addressing this move as euphoria or a mania is by looking at the trailing 12 months Price to Earnings ratio.

Price to Earnings ratio at historic levels – If you look at Figure 5 we are showing over past two decades the levels of PE which result into catastrophic reversals. The correction which ensued when PE ratio was so much stretched was a rush to catch back again with the mean value. To maintain the mean value we need to see deviation in the opposite direction. So everytime prices crossed above 2 standard deviation of mean PE value we can see it going towards negative 2 standard deviation over subsequent months or years. This way the average PE had been maintained around the zone of 18 – 19.

Also, everytime such historic valuations are reached there will be enough logical reasoning to explain why it is justified. Even during IT boom of 2000 there was justification that the economy is now going through a historic change which was never before witnessed and so re-rating of PE is inevitable. But what was inevitable was the sharp reversal and deep correction post that. This time as well majority of the fundamentalist who are already invested in the markets are now justifying why the current levels of PE value is fair. Trust me this has been ongoing for centuries and is no different. If you can simply open the charts of global markets with long enough history and search the news when the valuations were highly expensive you will find similar reasoning because there is no other way to explain the mania.

If you have been following the monthly research over past months we have identified such mania in Bitcoin and everyone saw how quickly the entire optimism turned into catastrophe. We are not trying to catch a top here but the risk which is now increasing with each passing day is simply not worth the fresh investments and we have history of data available to back this up.

Gann projection level:As shown in figure 4 Nifty has now broken above the level of ……. which was acting as stiff resistance earlier. This level will now act as a very important support on downside. The next projection level as per Gann is at 11503. So for any reversal confirmation we need to see decisive break below …….. levels and unless that happen it is best to avoid catching a top in this euphoria.

Neo wave plausible scenarios: (refer the monthly research report)

 The above shows the important levels that one has keep a watch and why the valuations are at extreme levels. These tools are not for short term timing but it is important to pay heed when they reach the extreme zone!

So, what is next for Nifty, sectors that will outperform, commodity index and much more?

Get access to “The Financial Waves monthly update” and see yourself all the major indices at a glance with most objective reasoning in this euphoric scenario. Also for limited time you can now subscribe to “The Financial Waves short term update” and get monthly update along with it. Subscribe NOW here

Nifty: Trade setup for coming week!

Nifty has been gyrating sharply but within a range. I am sure if you are tracking one key fundamental parameter – Price to Earnings ratio (PE) you are aware we are now above 28 levels! Yes, this level was last seen only in 2000 and 2008 and everyone knows how prices reacted post that.

So, what to expect next and what are the cycles suggesting? See this in the latest webinar here:

Bank Nifty: Is it completing its final up leg?

BANK Nifty has shown strong rise from the lows of 24000 till 27900 levels. With RBI rate hike we are witnessing a pause in its ongoing rally. Or is it just a coincidence? Now everyone will talk about market corrects post RBI policy but the overall pattern was nearing completion anyways.

Below is the chart which shows how we were able to capture the entire move from 24000 using techniques like Elliot wave, Moving averages.  This was published in Monthly research report.

Bank Nifty daily chart – Anticipated on 7th April 2018

Bank Nifty daily chart – Happened so far

Below is the extract taken from The Financial Waves Monthly Update published on 7th April 2018

Anticipated – We continue to look at the entire move as a Diametric pattern and wave f might be completed at the lows. We can start seeing wave g on upside that can take prices towards 26000 levels or higher. PSU Banking stocks like Bank of Baroda, SBI, Canara Bank that were leading the down move have started showing some bottoming formation and managed to form higher highs and higher lows on daily scale. For Bank Nifty, on downside 24100 is an important support which is also the Gap area created on 5th April. So as long as this Gap remains protected we will stay with the current outlook that wave f is over and wave g has started on upside.

Happened: Bank Nifty moved higher from the lows of 24000 and crossed above 27500 in the form of wave g. This has helped in capturing a move of more than 3500 points on this index. We are again at the juncture where there is possibility of a big trending move but in opposite direction. So what is next?

Based on above research our clients were able to capture the ride on early stages. Subscribe to “The Financial Waves monthly update” and “The Financial Waves Short term update” to see why we have arrived at crucial juncture and the pattern looks near completion. It is time to pull the trigger as soon as support levels break. You cannot afford to miss the next big trend. Get access here

Nifty at new highs, Is it time to be cautious?

Many are looking at Nifty touching new life time highs but majority of stocks from the Midcap and Smallcap space are still struggling near the lows. So is it time to look for buying opportunity? I have my doubts…

In order to understand the maturity of trend one first needs to identify the pattern under formation. This is most important if you are using Elliott wave or Neo wave for trade setup.

Now look below chart of Nifty which shows a Diamond shaped Diametric pattern. So what do you expect post its completion?

Nifty daily chart:

The below is published in the morning research report – “The Financial Waves short term update”

Elliott wave analysis:

In previous update we mentioned that following “Nifty and broader markets are behaving as expected. The overall tone will remain positive but at the same time using strict stop of 11020 is must on Nifty which is the Gap area”

Nifty after a positive start traded in the range of 11157 and 11113 levels. The overall movement was simply sideways even when prices managed to break above the earlier bar high. This shows that the required momentum is not building up. In the current market we are seeing sharp rise of more than 6% to 10% in stocks that are posting better than expected results whereas the ones which are missing the estimates are being corrected sharply to the extent of more than 10%. This is exactly the reason why one has to be extremely careful while trading in futures on stocks. Also such behavior is not necessarily on the high beta stocks from midcap or smallcap space. We are seeing such move in largecap stocks as well. So it is time to leverage less and let the market complete its irrational swings.

As shown on hourly chart,….(shown in actual research report)

Time cycles are already in sell mode and a very strong positive trend will not emerge for next 2 weeks if this cycle is working well. We are therefore getting more and more cautious with each passing day. Anyone who is only tracking index is looking at it as new highs but the stocks are telling a different story. The sharp rise is only relieving the oversold state in majority of stocks and this nowhere indicates start of fresh leg on upside in them. It is best to avoid the expensive stocks as the correction in them is still pending.

In short, Nifty can continue to drift higher with slower momentum as we are approaching towards the earlier peak of 11170 levels. As mentioned in earlier update there are series of resistance placed near …….. levels. On downside break back below ……… will be ….. Keep a watch on mentioned levels and form the trading strategy by buying near supports and selling near resistance!

The above clearly gives the important levels using which one can initiate trades. So what is next for Nifty from here? To know in detail subscribe to “The Financial waves short term update” daily research report and see yourself where do we expect next big trend to emerge. Get access NOW

Crude – Amazing pattern, Will it resume positive trend again?

Crude has been moving upward from the lows of 2800 and still ongoing. We have been using simple techniques likes bar technique and channeling along with advanced concepts of Neo wave – Elliott wave to catch the swings in either direction.

Below is the research which we published today in the morning in our report ‘The Commodity Waves STU’.

MCX Crude daily chart:

Wave analysis:

NYMEX Crude has managed to protect its low of 67 and move towards higher levels so as long as its pivot low of 67 is intact on downside bias remains positive and eventually a move towards 69 can be expected.

Diametric pattern – Daily chart shows amazing pattern from Advanced Elliott wave. Prices have completed wave (f) of Diametric at the low and now wave (g) on upside should start again. The internal structure and pattern is shown in morning daily research report.

As shown in hourly chart of MCX Crude, prices have broken its downward slopping red channel. Wave a has completed on upside near 4780 levels and we can expect a sideways to negative action in form of wave b. Break above ………. will drive the trend towards higher levels of ………… or higher levels.

In short, trend for crude ……………

Based on the above research we generated the calls given below:

16/07/2018-CRUDE FUT SELL BELOW 4816 SL 4846 TGT1 4804 TGT2 4771- Achieved Target1 & Target 2

17/07/2018-CRUDE FUT SELL BELOW 4620 SL 4650 TGT1 4608 TGT2 4575- Achieved Target1

The above research shows in depth application of Elliott wave along with indicators like Channels, Moving Averages and Relative Strength Index. Subscribe now to “The Commodity Waves short term update” and get an insight into Gold, Silver, Crude, Copper with detailed charts and crucial levels to watch.  – Get access here

Want direct calls like above on whatsapp or SMS – Get access to Intraday advisory for commodities here. Subscribe now

Nifty trading range and application of Bollinger bands!

How to use Bollinger bands for trading on #Nifty, #stocks? Visit https://www.wavesstrategy.com for #Elliottwave research on #Equity #Commodity #Forex markets

Trading Gold: Using the concept of Channels, Horizontal lines and RSI!

Precious metals – Gold and Silver had been in an impulsive downtrend. During such times it is best to adopt a few basic but important methods to time the entry for short term trading.

Look at the below chart of MCX Gold where we have applied the concept of Channels, RSI and Horizontal line. A confluence of these simple methods can help one to derive good trade setup.

MCX Gold hourly chart:

The above shows a simple method where we can see amazing application of channels along with horizontal line concept and Relative strength index (RSI) indicator.

An ideal trade setup would be for the short positions as the overall trend over past few days is negative. It is wisely said to trade in the direction of the trend as the line of least resistance is on downside.

Now when prices break below the support horizontal line and reverses from the channel resistance as well that is the ideal trade setup. We can see reversal in RSI as well during such time. We also keep a track on price movement on COMEX Gold to have high conviction.

Price has again arrived near the channel resistance and is on the verge of reversal from there. It is about to break below the short term red channel support and RSI is also on the verge of reversal. So is it time to go short on GOLD?

Get access to Intraday / Positional advisory on commodity where we shoot the calls via sms or yahoo with complete follow-up. Always remember trading is never a certainty and will involve risk. So maintaining strict stoploss is must and if you are not able to do that one trade can eat up all your profits. Also when someone talks about 99% accuracy think again! You think it is really that easy when we are forecasting the future. I agree there are times when your accuracy is around 95% for certain period but that too will not last long. It is best to be conservative and maintaining it near the zone of 70% – 85% is what can result into overall profitable trades.

Subscribe now to Intraday calls of Commodity and get the research report free along with it. Know more here

P.S. 2 days to go for seminar on How to derive trades using simple methods to advanced technical analysis… Know more

Nifty beyond 11000! What is next?

Nifty has managed to cross beyond psychological 11000 mark yet again! This has been exactly the way it was expected.

See yourself the below gist picked up from the monthly research report – “The Financial Waves Monthly update” published way back on 7th June 2018.

Neo wave pattern: If you look carefully Nifty has not done anything in 2018. The year started near 10550 levels and prices are still hovering near the trading zone of 10550 – 10800 levels. This shows there is an ongoing distribution for many months. Predicting the sideways pattern is most challenging as there are a few equally probable scenarios. Only when the pattern is near completion we get high conviction trade setup. It is therefore prudent to keep evaluating the ongoing pattern under formation. For now we are assuming Diametric pattern is continuing since there was expansion in earlier legs and contraction so far. Also wave f size has been similar to that of wave b shown in Figure 3. Ongoing wave g on upside can take prices towards 10900 levels. It will be a tough call to make whether new highs will be touched or not but we can expect more of a double top type of scenario where wave g will terminate near 11000 – 11100 zone ideally. We will keep a close watch on momentum as and when prices approach that range and mention it in our short term updates.

Nifty daily chart – (anticipated in monthly update on 7th June 2018)

Nifty daily chart – (Happened)

Nifty daily chart – Gann Projection levels (showed on 7th June 2018)

Anticipated – It will be a tough call to make whether new highs will be touched or not but we can expect more of a double top type of scenario where wave g will terminate near 11000 – 11100 zone ideally. We will keep a close watch on momentum as and when prices approach that range and mention it in our short term updates.

Happened: The above charts are self-explanatory that shows how markets have moved. We have been expecting such trend and anticipated it more than a month back. The only change is in momentum. The move on upside is euphoric maybe to suck in the maximum retail participants. I am not trying to catch a top unless the support levels are broken but this is the time to be alert again!

I turned bullish when majority were expecting break below 10500 levels again based on Time cycles and other Neo wave methods.

Gann projections – If you look at the 3rd chart carefully you can see the Gann projection given as 11078 and the high touched by Nifty is 11078.30 to be precise. So will this Gann projection work again?

So what is next from here? Is this up move going to continue towards life time highs or are we going to see the distribution again!

Imagine the power of trading if you know which tools to use and you can also time it well, For years I have worked on various patterns, methods and cycles and finally drilled down to these methods that has helped me to forecast the turns so accurately – Elliott – Neo wave, Hurst’s Time cycles and Gann projection levels! Learn these methods yourself in the upcoming two days training seminar on 21st and 22nd July in Mumbai, Hotel Radisson. Only a few seats left, ACT NOW – Know more

Get access to the daily equity research report and the monthly update to get holistic view on markets and what should be the trading strategy. We have been able to capture the important turning juncture time and again and prices are now at the levels where things are turning euphoric! Is it time to be against the crowd or there is more steam left? Get access here