Trading Gold: Using the concept of Channels, Horizontal lines and RSI!

Precious metals – Gold and Silver had been in an impulsive downtrend. During such times it is best to adopt a few basic but important methods to time the entry for short term trading.

Look at the below chart of MCX Gold where we have applied the concept of Channels, RSI and Horizontal line. A confluence of these simple methods can help one to derive good trade setup.

MCX Gold hourly chart:

The above shows a simple method where we can see amazing application of channels along with horizontal line concept and Relative strength index (RSI) indicator.

An ideal trade setup would be for the short positions as the overall trend over past few days is negative. It is wisely said to trade in the direction of the trend as the line of least resistance is on downside.

Now when prices break below the support horizontal line and reverses from the channel resistance as well that is the ideal trade setup. We can see reversal in RSI as well during such time. We also keep a track on price movement on COMEX Gold to have high conviction.

Price has again arrived near the channel resistance and is on the verge of reversal from there. It is about to break below the short term red channel support and RSI is also on the verge of reversal. So is it time to go short on GOLD?

Get access to Intraday / Positional advisory on commodity where we shoot the calls via sms or yahoo with complete follow-up. Always remember trading is never a certainty and will involve risk. So maintaining strict stoploss is must and if you are not able to do that one trade can eat up all your profits. Also when someone talks about 99% accuracy think again! You think it is really that easy when we are forecasting the future. I agree there are times when your accuracy is around 95% for certain period but that too will not last long. It is best to be conservative and maintaining it near the zone of 70% – 85% is what can result into overall profitable trades.

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Gold – Power of 3rd wave, it cannot be more accurate!

Gold has shown amazing rise in just a day’s time. Was this up move predictable?

Gold had a sharp rise of  2.2% in a single day. This stark move was very much predictable and here is the proof!

Here we have shown short term chart taken from “The Commodity Waves Short Term Update” on MCX Gold which helped us to capture the up move using Elliott wave, Moving Average and Channeling Technique.

MCX Gold April 60 mins chart: Anticipated as on 11th April morning before markets opened

MCX Gold April 60 mins chart: Happened as on 11th April post trading session.

Wave analysis:

The below research is picked up from “The Commodity Waves short term update” published on 11th April morning.

Anticipated: “The shine of the Gold has been coming and going away all these time reacting to global market. Despite of the volatility, the metal has made higher highs and higher lows from last 3 trading sessions which shows that prices are heading northwards. As shown in daily chart, in the previous trading session, prices touched a high of 30779-levels and closed at around 30759-levels. Gold is moving in upward sloping blue channel and has managed to stay above its support of 50-period Exponential Moving Average which is near 30362-levels at present. Gold has completed wave 2 at around 30185–levels on the downside and presently prices are forming wave 3 of (c) on the upside……..Close above 30850 can touch 31500 or even higher levels” BANG ON!

Happened: The metal has acted exactly as we mentioned. It breached 30850-level in the previous trading session and touched a high of 31562-levels. This shows power of wave 3!

To know the in-depth analysis from Elliott wave perspective, get access to the “The Commodity Waves Short Term Update” which covers Gold, Silver, Crude and Copper with important levels. We provide intraday/positional trading advisory based on Elliott wave pattern and favorable risk reward ratio which has accuracy of 75% to 80%. Based on these methods we also gave Intraday call on Silver that achieved even the target 2 levels. It is time for you to start trading systematically using time tested methods… Subscribe here!

Gold – Will it glitter again with fall in Equity markets

As the Indian equity markets have been in a frenzy and global markets are also witnessing aggressive selloffs, it will be interesting to see if investors turn towards gold for a safe haven.  Rise in gold prices can also be attributed to the depreciation of INR since they are inversely correlated. In our daily commodity report published on 7th February 2018 we can see how flawlessly on hourly scale prices are moving within the upward sloping channel.

Is it time to turn to Gold again?

Look at the below chart of Gold from “The Commodity waves short term update” a daily research report

Gold 60 mins chart:

Elliott Wave analysis:

Below had been published in today’s morning research report

Comex Gold has managed to protect its previous low of 1323 levels. As long as this level is intact trend remains positive.

As shown in daily chart, prices are near its channel resistance. Post making a high near 30800 levels prices are moving sideways. As long as 50 periods EMA is maintained at 29577 levels trend remains positive over medium term.

As shown on hourly charts, prices are hovering near its channel support trendline. It will be interesting to see if it manages to protect this level. Break of previous low of ….. levels can infuse selling pressure over short term which can take prices towards … levels or lower levels. Break above 30300 levels will ensure revival of up trend.

In short, Gold is impulsive. Break of the levels mentioned will provide trading opportunity.

There is a possibility that the asset which has been out of flavor for so long can start gaining attention as the global equity market turmoil starts. Is it time to switch the asset from Equity to Gold?

Subscribe Now “The Commodity waves short term update” and see yourself the power of impulsive pattern on Gold, Silver, Crude and Copper. Get access here.

Identifying Impulse pattern is the key to trade successfully. Would you like to learn how to identify such patterns that can help from trading strategy across Nifty, Bank Nifty, stocks, Gold, commodities and more? Register for the upcoming event on 10th and 11th March and learn how to apply technical analysis from 5 minutes to daily charts… For more details visit here

How to trade Gold impulse pattern – A classic chart?

MCX Gold has shown sharp rally from the lows of 28100 and prices touched high above 29800 levels. This sharp up move was in less than a month. It clearly shows power of Elliott wave impulse pattern.

The below chart is picked up from “The Commodity waves short term update”

MCX Gold Feb 60 mins chart:

Wave analysis:

In previous update for Gold we mentioned that “overall Gold trend is positive as long as lower level trendline is protected near 29500. One can hold their position for move towards 29950 levels.” BANG ON!

Gold has managed to move higher despite of other metals not moving in any direction. It is interesting to see outperformance in Gold whereas Silver has been drifting lower. ….As shown on hourly chart, Gold has been behaving within the impulsive rise very well. We captured this rise very early on and still able to anticipate a positive reversal from the channel support. As shown on above chart, Gold is respecting the 20 period moving average as well. So as long as this average is protected the overall trend will remain bullish.

In short, Gold can move towards …….. levels as mentioned in earlier update with ……. as very important support. ………….. ideal strategy.

The above simply shows power of Impulse pattern and we have been able to capture the same for Copper few days back and now even on Gold during the entire rise. It shows how easily you can trade once you are riding the impulsive trend. So what is next for commodities from here? Subscribe NOW to “The Commodity waves STU” and see yourself detailed analysis on Gold, Silver, Crude and Copper…Visit Pricing page

How to identify Impulse patterns? Elliott wave on Stocks, Gold, Silver, Crude, Copper

Trading using Technical analysis, Elliott wave and charts on Stocks, Gold, Silver, Crude and Copper. Visit https://www.wavesstrategy.com for Commodity tips. Also see trade setup on Nifty, Bank Nifty and Stock tips.

Power of Impulse pattern – Gold, Silver, Crude & Copper!

The below charts show power of impulsive pattern across the commodities – Gold, Silver, Crude and Copper.Many are fixated upon movement of equity markets which has been subdued since the start of New Year whereas commodity has been providing ample opportunities on the long side.

We have seen strong trending moves in Base metals, Energy pack and Precious metals as well. See the below charts of different commodities published in today’s morning research report – The Commodity Waves short term update.

See how easy it is to trade an impulsive trend if you are placed the right direction. You might refer our previous articles on Copper and other metals as well where we captured the entire up move and we turned bearish post wave v completion which helped to capitalize on the past few days of correction as well.

MCX Gold 60 minutes chart:

MCX Silver 60 minutes chart:

MCX Crudeoil 60 minutes chart:

MCX Copper 60 minutes chart:

So, once you have the Elliott wave structure or pattern you now know the address of the market. Using this co-ordinate you can formulate the trading strategy and use appropriate indicators.

So, if we expect a trending move then Moving averages will provide good support to prices, whereas during sideways action Bollinger Bands will do the magic!

Along with charts, it is important to see the support and resistance levels which we give along with the research daily morning.

Get access now to “The Commodity waves short term update” and trade the asset where the opportunity lies. I believe we should be flexible in switching the asset to the ones that are trending. Right now, it seems Commodity is the place to be in – Subscribe Now here

In case you do not have time to analyse and read the charts yourself subscribe to our Intraday / Positional Commodity Tips services where we monitor and shoot the calls based on opportunities. We have been able to capture amazing moves on Gold, Copper and other metal space over past few days. Subscribe for Commodity Tips and get research report free. Get access here

Gold: Path ahead in 2017! Elliott wave analysis!

Understanding the trend of Gold on year on year basis with Elliott wave, moving average and channeling technique.

The year of 2016 is going to complete in next 2 days and it is important to know how Gold prices have behaved throughout the year. Here we can see that year of 2016 started with reversal on upside and Gold moved higher from 24500 to 32500 level within a span of 6 months. In this period’s bulls completely ruled and outperformance was witnessed. However post that Gold topped out and since then capitulation is ongoing. Assuming that prices can close the current year near 27000 level, Gold will still manage to gain 10% from the start of 2016. So what this indicates for 2017? Will next year Gold retest the high of 32500 level or low of 24500?

Below we have shown Gold chart taken from “The Commodity Waves Short Term Update”. Here we have hided the wave counts which is shown in original report. The important thing to watch is that prices were continuously finding resistance of 10 days Exponential moving average and recently prices have managed to cross above the same. This indicates short term reversal.

MCX Gold Continuous Daily chart:

(Part of research taken from today’s “The Commodity Waves Short Term Update”)

Wave analysis:

In the last update we mentioned that, “prices have retraced the last leg of down move in faster time which was not seen in the entire down move. This increases the minute wave (v) of wave (c) might have completed.”

In the last trading session Gold consolidated in a range. Post the sharp rise, this kind of consolidation indicates positivity.

As shown in daily chart, RSI has reversed from the zone of 30 level along with positive divergence and has given close above the prior bars high. This has changed daily bias into positive side. Close above 10 days Exponential moving average indicates that trend is reversing on upside. Now as long as prices hold above prior bars low trend will remain positive.

(60 mins chart is not shown purposely which is covered in the original report with Elliott wave)

As shown in 60 mins chart, prices look to be trading in minute wave ….and post the same Gold should move higher. 100 periods Exponential moving average which acted as resistance earlier will act as support now as per polarity reversal. On downside 26970 will continue to act as important support.

In short, Gold trend is positive. Move above ……

To know the proper trading strategy and understand the short to medium term trend of Gold, Silver, Crude and Copper, subscribe to “The Commodity Waves Short Term Update”and get “The global Waves STU” Free with It. for more information visit Contact US

Indian Equity markets path ahead, Deteriorating breadth a concern!

The below is English Transcript of the interview published in Economic Times of Navbharat Times by Ashish Kyal, CMT

Indian Equity markets have continued to rise after it formed an important low on the Union Budget held in February 2016. Sensex touched the low of 22494 on 29^th February 2016 post which the entire trend reversed sharply higher. We have seen a rise of nearly 30% in less than 7 months providing promising returns to investors. Sensex closed the previous week at 28800 levels. 

Midcap and Smallcap indices have been a strong outperformer in the entire uptrend. A few stocks have reached very expensive valuations and therefore stock selection is going to be very important both for traders and investors.

Deteriorating breadth: A concerning sign during this entire rally that started in early 2016 is that the Advance decline line has been moving lower. This simple indicator measures if there are more number of advancing stocks than declining. A falling line indicates that during the rise there have been lesser number of stocks that are moving higher and more number of stocks that are falling. During such times one should be cautious and invest only in those stocks that have lower Price to Earnings multiple and good growth potential.

Technical perspective: One of the basic methods that investors can use to understand the trend is to see the low of previous month. As long as prices do not break previous month’s low trend will remain positive. The low of prior month on Sensex is now near 27600. In the entire rise of 2016 we have not see a single negative monthly close. So investor can follow this simple method to stay in the trend.

Sector performance: Banking, Infra and Auto had been the strong sectors that helped Sensex touch 17 months high whereas defensive sectors like IT and Pharma had been the major laggards. From long term perspective we can expect Consumer discretionary, Automobile sector to outperform given the fact that increase in disposable income along with falling interest rates will result into consumer spending.

Outlook on Gold: Gold had shown strong rise in 2016 so far. Prices rose from near 25000 levels and moved towards 32000 few weeks back. Gold can continue to see stable rise for the rest of the year with important support coming near the zone of 30,000. As long as Gold manages to sustain above this level we can expect uptrend to continue. 

Week Ahead: Sensex can show some consolidation or range bound action in coming week within the zone of 29200 on upside and support near 28400 levels. Decisive break above the level of 29200 will take Indian markets towards new highs. Traders and investors should use proper stoploss levels and evaluate risk reward ratio before investing as volatility can increase going forward! 

MCX Gold managed to protect magical 25000 yet again! Upside reversal despite Swiss outcome

Strong negative news resulted into sharp reversal in Precious metals, Base metals and Energy prices in opposite direction.

Economic Times:“Gold prices tumbled on Monday after Swiss voters overwhelmingly rejected proposals to boost gold reserves in a referendum, joining a broad rout in commodities that sent copper and oil prices to four- and five-year lows.” 

It is therefore prudent not to trade based on news as you can be amongst the majority entering in wrong direction exactly at the wrong time.

Now below is the analysis on Gold using objective methods - 

MCX Gold Continuous Daily chart:                                                                                                            

Wave Analysis

Below is a brief excerpt picked up from “The Commodity waves” research report published daily before market opens.

MCX Gold started the day on negative note. Prices moved lower and exceeded the level of even 25500 on downside. However, there was sharp reversal during later part of the day across the bullions and base metals.

Important news comes near the crucial lows or tops. The news of Swiss reject to hold more Gold resulted into a sharp down move but only temporarily and the reversal happened equally hard.Such negative news and reversals usually can result into a very crucial low formation.However, it is too soon to conclude that and we need more price action along with higher highs and higher lows formation to confirm that Gold has indeed managed to protect the magical number of 25000 yet again!

Now looking at the short term wave counts (shown in actual report to subscribers)

During such times when an asset moves against the expected news it provides vital technical information to us. Gold has continued to protect 25000 mark for many months now. It has reversed from the crucial zone but for short term trading it is prudent to look at important support and resistance levels to get good trade setup. Subscribe to “The Commodity waves” research report and get insight into Gold, Silver, Crude, Copper and intermittently on Lead, Zinc, Natural Gas, etc. Or directly get intraday / positional calls on Yahoo messenger or via sms by subscribing to our Commodity advisory service with FREE research reports. Simply visit http://www.wavesstrategy.com/index.php/store.html for subscription options.

Gold a sharp selloff – Is it a beginning of next major trend?

Gold has lost its sheen over past many months and this is no surprise to us. We have been talking about Gold underperformance for more than a year and now even the traders are losing interest in yellow metal which has been the darling of commodity for more than a decade.

Gold has enjoyed decade long Bull run since 2002 onwards. A true rally in Gold is when prices rise against all the major currencies across the Globe and not just Indian Rupee. Even though Gold made new highs against INR in 2013 it failed to do so against USD, EURO, GBP, JPY. This clearly suggested that the rally in Gold prices in INR was unsustainable and only contributed by Rupee depreciation.

The below chart and analysis of Gold clearly reflects how Elliott wave analysis suggested an upcoming capitulation and severe selloff in this asset class:

MCX Gold 60 mins chart: (June contract) (as shown on 21^st May morning report)

Happened as on 21^st May post market analysis:

The severe selloff in Gold might be a surprise to many but not to our subscribers. We have mentioned the following yesterday morning when Gold was trading near 28200 “On upside 28350 is the important resistance. On downside any sharp move below 28000 will resume downtrend…….”

Happened: Gold made a sharp reversal and as soon as 28000 level was broken prices fell sharply and made a low of 27350.

We gave sell call on Gold as well to our intraday call subscribers who capitalized on the selloff.

Subscribe to the intraday / positional call of Commodity and get the research report absolutely free “The Commodity Waves” See yourself what is the trend for Gold, Silver, Crude, Copper and we also cover Natural Gas, Lead, Zinc periodically. Trade systematically. For subscription option visit http://www.wavesstrategy.com/index.php/store.html or write to us at helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com/ +91 22 28831358 / +91 9920422202

Gold, Currency, Bank Nifty view by Ashish Kyal in Economic Times Section of Navbharat Times

For daily research reports and intraday advisory register on www.wavesstrategy.com

Indian currency worse performing among BRIC nations

Wishing you all a very Happy New Year 2014!

The below is the English transcript of article by Ashish Kyal, CMT Director of Waves Strategy Advisors in Economic Times section of Navbharat Times.

Rupee outlook: Indian Currency is one of the worst performing as it is trading way beyond the top of 2009 made near 51.50 levels. Many of the other Asian currencies still have managed to protect the highs of 2009 where as USDINR made life time high near 69 in August 2013.

If we see from the bottom of 2008, then Indian currency has depreciated almost 58% from the lows of 39 to current levels. Brazilian Real has depreciated 34% from the lows of 1.55, RussianRouble depreciated by almost 30% from the lows of the 23 made in 2008.

Our outlook on currency is that Indian rupee can continue to deprecate and move towards 65 – 66 levels over next few months with 59 as very important level on downside.

Outlook on Gold: Introduction of Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index:It is the index which is made up of 16 mining companies worldwide that are into the business of mining of Gold and Silver. When this index moves higher, it shows that these companies are doing well and generating profits. However since 2010 onwards the index showed strong down performance and has now reached near the levels of 2009. As Equity indices lead Commodity prices we can conclude that the prices of Gold and Silver should continue to move lower atleast over next few months before we can see any meaningful bounce back.

Over short term, Indian Gold has an important support of 28200 and strong resistance of 28800 levels. Range bound movement can be expected in this week and break below 28000 will continue the downtrend.

Bank Nifty direction: Bank Nifty made a very important high at 12200 on 9^th December 2013. On18^th December RBI announced no hike in repo rates and Bank Nifty made a high of 11570 on same day. An interesting thing is that even after 6 trading sessions after RBI announcement of no rate hike Bank Nifty has failed to move above the highs made on that day and is still trading at 11460 levels as of Friday’s close. This is indicating inherent weakness in this sector. One should avoid going long on Banking sector this week as long as 12000 level is intact on upside.

Sensex past week: In last week Sensex moved up exactly as expected. However the movement was very less in Indian markets. Sensex moved between 21000 and 21235 levels. This is a movement of only 235 points in entire week. Many would argue for the vacation effect on Indian markets but during this same period we have seen strong uptrend has continued in developed equity markets with DJIA hitting life time highs, Nikkei hitting 6 year high. So Indian markets are relatively underperforming and looks to be on a vacation mode.

Current outlook: This week Sensex can have a consolidation between 20900 and 21400 levels. Since the low of 20600 we are seeing sectors or stocks contributing to the up move are changing daily. This is reflecting a day trading environment right now rather than positional trading. One should accordingly trade and avoid positional trading till clear trend emerges confirmation of which will be obtained only above 21500 with strong momentum! 

For daily research reports and intraday advisory register on www.wavesstrategy.com

Trading Gold using “Technical analysis”

The below research is by Waves Strategy Advisors. For various research products visit http://wavesstrategy.com/index.php/store.html

The below article highlights on how to trade Gold using basic “Technical analysis” and techniques like Channels. Bullions are one of the highly liquid commodities.

In 2009 Comex Gold was almost trading near 650 per ounce and it made life time of 1900 near mid August 2011. Price almost tripped in 3 year. This type of trend we witnessed first time since 1996. It is quite oblivious that how one can almost capture whole trending moves. The simple answer is technical analysis, Elliott wave counts and other technical tools.

Even basic techniques like channels also work precisely and give entry and exit points.

Comex Gold 120 mins chart:

After making top near $1900 we witnessed corrective movement in Gold. If events were to drive the prices of Gold than why is it following the simplest technique of channeling so precisely?

Prices are moving lower in downward sloping channel. The arrows show how precisely it has acted as support and resistance. One can easily conclude the short term trend looking at this chart.

But this does not mean that the current position on Comex Gold is a good bet to initiate shorts as prices have arrived near the lower trendline of the channel. So what should be trading strategy from here?

To know more about daily trading strategy on Bullions subscribe to “The Commmodity Waves” or“The Global Waves” and get daily charts with explanation on Bullions, Energy, Base Metals. For more information visit www.wavesstrategy.com

How long this underperformance of Indian equity and currency markets will continue?

Financial markets are constantly in a flux of movement and people are trying to trade based on their understanding of fair price. 

The volatility has increased drastically over past few months as the bigger trend has probably started on downside. Volatility can be a blessing or a curse depending on whether you are placed on the right side of the market or not. During such times it is important to look at various asset classes across the globe to see if a higher certainty or predictability is plausible using Intermarketanalysis.

 In physical markets where goods of essential commodities are being sold, buyers and sellers transact with a much higher level of certainty. For example, the price of Onions tomorrow will likely be close to what it is today, recently it has also started fluctuating more than the past norms but still most of the times the fluctuations are minimal. That’s because the law of supply and demand which are measurable with high degree of certainty. Thus, price equilibrium is reached between consumers and producers.

But in Financial markets, everyone thinks that they are trading the fair price but each one has its own way of calculating the same. Also stock markets are based on discounting principle and how the company should be performing in future. This requires lot of assumptions in the pricing model and everyone has the liberty to assume what they think is appropriate to derive the fair value.

We believe, the psychology of investors decides the trend in market and this psychology moves in form of patterns or waves. R.N. Elliott discovered that the stock market moves in recurring patterns that he called waves. He formulated the Wave Principle based on these wave patterns called Elliott waves.

BSE Smallcap index weekly chart

The above chart is published in Monthly update with crucial levels and expected path Smallcap can follow.

Elliott wave helps to forecast from few minutes, hours, weeks, months, years, decades or even centuries. Our Monthly report which shows forecast for Sensex, Gold, Reliance Industries that has been a big underperformer over past few years but might soon starts its outperformance , US – Dow Jones Industrial Average that made its life time high when India has been struggling andUSDINR which also touched life time highs. In India, it is currency touching life time highs rather than stock market. But the question to ask is How long this underperformance of Indian equity and currency markets will continue? To get the answer get an insight into the Monthly and Daily equity research report.

To subscribe to any of the equity research visit the store page http://wavesstrategy.com/index.php/store.html

Useful for: Elliott Wave traders, Market forecast, Currency traders, Positional traders

Related to: Elliott wave, Elliott wave forecasting, USDINR, Dow Jones, Sensex,Gold, Reliance,Inter market analysis, BSE Small cap Index

Gold has ended secular bull trend and its affinity for Prime numbers!

A prime number (or a prime) is a natural number greater than 1 that has no positive divisors other than 1 and itself.  Fibonacci number, Prime numbers, a few Geometric degrees or angles all play vital role in providing important information for freely traded markets. We have to see which of the series are well respected. Gold undoubtedly shows its affinity for “Prime Numbers”

The following is published in “The Financial Waves Monthly Update” that gives multiyear target for Gold with clear justification of why we think Gold has started multi-year and probably multi-decadeof downtrend. A small excerpt from the same report is as follows:

Gold has been one of the favorite investment vehicles for over a decade. Prices have increased multifold from $272.22 in 2002 to near 1700 levels (monthly average for the year) or $1920 actual high in just a decade. This is astonishing 7 times or 524% returns in 11 years. People tend to flock to the asset class that has been in a secular bull trend. This is a good strategy but the problem is that when this secular tend ends the next leg of bear market is not acceptable to many investors since they have not seen Gold underperforming during their investment career or probably refuse to accept the fact that it can underperform other asset classes.

Gold spot USD yearly (monthly average) chart:

(Actual chart has many more studies like Time Cycles, Projections, Levels, Elliott Wave counts and ideal chart)

Gold love for Prime numbers: We can see multiple relationships in terms of Price and Time. Gold moved in controlled fashion prior to 1968 and so we can see prices constant at $35 for 33 years. Even in a controlled fashion the time for Cycle…. is 33 years which is 11*3 both of which are prime numbers. The rally then took prices towards $612.56 i.e. An increase of 17 times in 13 years, both of which is again prime number. Next Cycle …. lasted for 21 years which is 7*3 both again prime numbers. Cycle ….started from 272.22 and made a monthly average high of 1700 in 2012 or actual high of 1920 in 2011. Considering actual highs prices increased by 7 times in 11 years (both again prime)

The above is sufficient data to assume Gold movement is driven by Prime numbers. The future forecast is also coming exactly as per this number. We do not have justification for Gold’s affinity to Prime but what we know is that if it worked in past it will work in future as well which has helped us to come out with Gold Price & Time targets!

To know the next move of Gold for long term levels subscribe to the Monthly update. For more information visit: http://www.wavesstrategy.com/index.php/store.html or write to us at helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com