Tuesday, October 26, 2021

IRCTC Time Cycles, When Will It Rally AGAIN!


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Will Nifty Break 18k Levels Or Time To Buy, Elliott – Neo wave Pattern with OI?

Nifty has moved precisely as we expected and showed in previous research on 20th October 2021 – Nifty 3 Powerful Indicators

Now let us look at the same chart again and see what is expected from here on using Advanced Elliott Wave technique – Neo wave with Open Interest analysis

Nifty hourly chart:

We can see that prices are moving lower in the form of wave d and this pattern can either form a Diametric or a Neutral Triangle. Diametric is a 7 legged corrective pattern and Neutral triangle looks like a Head & Shoulder. We are currently moving in form of wave d and a bounce back above 18300 is required to confirm that wave d is over and wave e is starting higher.

Ichimoku Cloud - As of now we can see that prices are just moving near the lower end of the Ichimoku Cloud and we now need a break below 17970 for negative price confirmation. This will turn the overall setup into sell on rise and indicate a Neutral Triangle pattern is probably under formation. Combination of Ichimoku cloud along helps trader not only as a signalling method but also for deriving trades.

Open Interest Profile – Nifty OI profile continues to indicate that 18k is very important level with highest Put OI build there. A break below 17950 – 17930 zone will suggest that the puts will not get nervous and start covering their short positions thereby accelerating the selling pressure once 17950 breaks.

During this time Bank Nifty has continued to rally sharply on upside with stocks like ICICI Bank, Axis Bank moving up and on other hand stocks like IRCTC, IEX which have been traders favourite on long side are crashing. This will result into traders getting stuck and simply guessing what is going on. It is a typical scenario of a Triangle pattern formation and few days of consolidation can be expected. This is how one can understand Wave personality.

Thus the above 3 different techniques continued to suggest that markets are at crucial juncture and we need to either see a break below 17950 for a bigger downside correction or a move above 18300 for some positivity. Selling options is going to be ideal during such scenario to make money from ongoing volatile movement.

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Wednesday, October 20, 2021

3 Powerful Indicators on Nifty, You Cannot Miss!

By combining Ichimoku Cloud, Elliott Wave, and Open Interest analysis it is possible to form a powerful trade setup.

Diametric pattern is defined as per Neo wave and it consists of 7 legs. A peculiar behaviour of this pattern is that wave g tend towards equality with wave a, wave f tend towards equality with wave b and wave e tend towards equality with wave c.

Neutral Triangle Pattern: It is a triangle pattern in which wave c is the largest and wave d usually overlaps with wave a. This also looks like a topping Head & Shoulder pattern. Currently, Nifty is either forming a Diametric pattern or a Neutral Triangle and the nature of fall in wave d will confirm this.

Now look at the below chart for further understanding

Nifty 60 minutes chart:

Elliott wave analysis

Nifty on a 60 minutes time frame shows after Diametric pattern there was a dip in form of wave x and post that we might be forming a Neutral Triangle pattern or a Diametric again. Currently prices are in wave d of the same after forming a top in form of wave c near 18600 levels.

We are showing the path ahead on Nifty that can dip towards the Ichimoku cloud support and highest OI of Put option which is near 18000 and then there can be pullback on upside. This is also an assumption given the sharp fall of past few hours and rise in OI in call options near 18500 levels.

Open Interest analysis: 
OI profile chart shown along with prices gives further conviction for identifying key reversal areas. We can see that 18500 is near term resistance as there is high build up in OI for Call options of 18500 strike price and 18000 is highest OI for Put OI. Also 18400 is showing sharp rise in Call OI, so use pullback as shorting opportunity as long as 18400 – 18500 is intact and on downside expecting a move towards 18050 – 18k as per the path shown above. Also note this has to be evaluated as the market progresses and trade on basis of charts and patterns.

The above research clearly showcase how Ichimoku Cloud, Neo wave and OI profile can help in taking a clear trade setup for Option traders and form the strategy accordingly. These are simple yet powerful methods of forecasting and trading the markets.

Subscribe to the Multibagger, Momentum, Nifty / Bank Nifty calls that are derived on basis of these methods directly on WhatsApp / SMS and also get a research report along with it free to enhance your learnings.

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Wednesday, October 13, 2021

TataMotors Time Cycles with Target, Nifty BN OI by Ashish Kyal, Author


Mentorship On Timing the Market for the FIRST TIME EVER. Trade-in Real-Time With Discipline and Confidence using Time Cycles. A scientific Approach to Successful Trading. Limited Seats only. Know more- https://www.wavesstrategy.com/mentorship

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Tuesday, October 12, 2021

Nifty Huge Call Open Interest at 18k, Will it Cross But Momentum Is Waning!

 Nifty had been moving precisely as we have been forecasting to the very hour. We have been tweeting about Nifty movement with time on the tweeter handle @kyalashish and the move has been just precise.

Following research is simple and easy that shows how the smart traders assumed to be option writers are behaving. Majority of BIG Players prefer Option selling rather than Option buying as they understand the basic math of how Options work and the probability favors the sellers.

Nifty Open Interest Profile with Neo Wave Hourly chart:



Nifty above hourly chart clearly shows Call OI buildup around 18k levels and reduction in the Put OI near 18k. This suggest that the call writers are getting more confident on the upside and it is becoming increasingly difficult for Nifty to cross back above the psychological 18k mark.

Following was tweeted across on 11th October morning –



As per Elliott Wave Prices are moving in the form of triple corrective pattern and currently wave c is going on of the 3rd pattern. This might get complete around current zone and there is already a negative divergence between prices and RSI. This shows a slower momentum despite of the euphoria we are seeing around.

This time it is the index heavy weights like HDFC Bank, ITC, Reliance that has been managing to take index higher while others like TCS are correcting their overbought levels. During such times it is best to use Time Cycles for timing the market and follow Option writing strategy based on Time Cycle and Elliott wave techniques.

In a nutshell, Nifty has to cross above 18000 – 18060 levels to resume the uptrend. Failure to do that can result into short term time correction if not price. Basis of this information and research prudent option trading strategy can be formed and one can trade objectively.

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