MCX Crude: Intermediate top formed near 5100?

MCX Crude has shown an exponential rise from the lows of 4600 levels. We have been using Elliot wave combined with moving averages and RSI indicator. This helps in increasing accuracy of capturing a particular swing.

Below is research published in our daily report “The Commodity Waves STU” wherein we successfully captured the move from 4980 towards 5050 levels.

MCX Crude Sep 60 min chart: Anticipated as on 11^th September (morning).           

    

MCX Crude Sep 60 min chart: Happened as on 12^th September (morning)   

 

     

(Below is the extract taken from Commodity report published in the morning of 11^thSeptember, 2018)

Wave analysis:

Anticipated:As shown in the hourly chart of MCX Crude, prices are moving in wave (g) of which minor wave a has completed on upside and next leg on downside in for of wave b is ongoing. So we can expect range-bound to negative movement in coming sessions. Only break above 4980 will turn the bias positive. In short, trend for Crude is at crucial juncture. Break above 4980 can take the prices towards higher levels of 5050 whereas move towards 4820 levels can be expected.

Happened: Prices have managed to give a break above 4980 levels indicating, completion of wave b on downside and made a high near 50.

To know what will be the next move and till how far the rally of wave c will be, subscribe to our commodity report “The Commodity Waves STU” which is published in the morning on daily basis. Also get to know about precious metals like Gold and Silver and base metal like Copper, Lead, Zinc etc.- Know more

Sensex: Break above 28800 is important to resume the uptrend! Economic times section of Navbharat Times

The below is the English transcript of article by Ashish Kyal, CMT Director of Waves Strategy Advisors in Economic Times section of Navbharat Times.

Sensex has continued to form new monthly highs and touched the level of 28822 by end of November 2014. As long as prices manage to protect the low of prior month on closing basis the medium term trend will remain positive. November month did not see any strong momentum. Currently prices closed at 28458 which is only 45 points above the level seen in start of November. This shows that some strength is reducing on upside and one should invest only in selective stocks with lower “Price to Earning” multiples and good management.

NSE Advance decline line is a simple technical indicator which shows the overall breadth of the market. Even when Sensex is touching new highs this indicator is moving lower indicating more number of stocks were closing negative as compared to advancing stocks. This is known as negative divergence and it shows only selective number of stocks is taking index higher which are not a healthy sign.

RBI credit policy: RBI kept the key policy rates including repo rate unchanged in the meeting held on2^nd December 2014. RBI governor Raghuram Rajan said change in monetary policy stance now would be premature, adding RBI may change stance in early 2015 if inflation falls to 6 percent. This shows that RBI focus still remains on curbing down inflation first even if the overall economic growth might be slow.

Indian Rupee has continued to show relative outperformance since September 2013. Even when US Dollar has rallied sharply over past few months USDINR has managed to trade within the range and protected 63 levels on upside. Indian Rupee has been one of the best performing Asian currencies so far. The important support on USDINR is now at 59.50 and resistance is near 63.Break of either of these levels will start a strong trending move in that direction

Commodity prices: Commodity prices have continued to correct over past few months. Crude Oil touched the lowest level seen previously during 2009. This will help to reduce the pressure on India import bills. However, falling Crude prices is more driven by reduction in Global demand. This will put pressure on companies involved in production, exploration and refinement of Crude oil like Cairn India,Aban offshore.

Week ahead: In a nutshell, looking at the overall breadth, momentum and sector participation we think that the risk has increased for fresh investments at current levels. However, for change of trend there has been no price confirmation and unless we see a close below 27700 levels the medium term trend will remain positive. Another important technical indicator that can be used to understand the direction of market is 10 weeks Moving average. The support as per this average is near 27700 on downside. In current week, move above November high near 28800 is important for uptrend to resume with support of 27700!

Intraday Trading: Crude using Elliott wave & Patterns!

The research is by Waves Strategy Advisors. For more information visit www.wavesstrategy.com

Crude showed strong movement yesterday and moved from the lows of 6122 to the high of 6245.

The movement was not random but could have been very well anticipated and forecasted using basic patterns of technical analysis – Head & Shoulders and also applying the concept of Elliott wave theory.

Inverse Head & Shoulder pattern is a reversal pattern and forms after a sustained down move. Elliott wave incorporates this pattern within the wave counts and indicated even before the breakout that the up move atleast towards 6300 is possible using the conservative right shoulder target.

We even gave an intraday call on Crude as “MCX CRUDE JAN BUY ABOVE 6165 REST AT 6142.5 SL 6120 TGT 6232.5” BANG ON!!!

Happened:As soon as Crude moved above 6165 it had a sharp rise and moved towards 6245 by closing

This movement was not random and below is the justification of the intraday call given:

MCX Crude 60 mins chart (January Contract) (as of close on 19^th December 2013)

In today’s morning report following was published

Wave Analysis:

For Nymex Crude, prices continued uptrend and closed on the positive note for 4 consecutive day. As long as prices give close above prior bars high, trend is positive. For today, as long as 98.20 is intact on downside, prices can move towards 98.80/99.

As shown in daily chart, breakout above head and shoulder pattern indicates that intermediate wave A completed at 5800 and start of retracement of prior down move from 7800 to 5800. Over medium term this wave can move towards 61.8% of …………

As shown in 60 mins chart of MCX Crude, as we were mentioning from last many updates that prices are making probable head and shoulder pattern and we were waiting for the confirmation. As expected, prices broke above the important resistance of 6160 and closed on the positive note at 6244.

In short, for today’s trading session ……………

In December commodities used to have subdued movements but this time the market dynamics looked to have changed and there are very strong trending moves ongoing in a few of the commodities.

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