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Crude showed strong movement yesterday and moved from the lows of 6122 to the high of 6245.
The movement was not random but could have been very well anticipated and forecasted using basic patterns of technical analysis – Head & Shoulders and also applying the concept of Elliott wave theory.
Inverse Head & Shoulder pattern is a reversal pattern and forms after a sustained down move. Elliott wave incorporates this pattern within the wave counts and indicated even before the breakout that the up move atleast towards 6300 is possible using the conservative right shoulder target.
We even gave an intraday call on Crude as “MCX CRUDE JAN BUY ABOVE 6165 REST AT 6142.5 SL 6120 TGT 6232.5” BANG ON!!!
Happened:As soon as Crude moved above 6165 it had a sharp rise and moved towards 6245 by closing
This movement was not random and below is the justification of the intraday call given:
MCX Crude 60 mins chart (January Contract) (as of close on 19th December 2013)
In today’s morning report following was published
Wave Analysis:
For Nymex Crude, prices continued uptrend and closed on the positive note for 4 consecutive day. As long as prices give close above prior bars high, trend is positive. For today, as long as 98.20 is intact on downside, prices can move towards 98.80/99.
As shown in daily chart, breakout above head and shoulder pattern indicates that intermediate wave A completed at 5800 and start of retracement of prior down move from 7800 to 5800. Over medium term this wave can move towards 61.8% of …………
As shown in 60 mins chart of MCX Crude, as we were mentioning from last many updates that prices are making probable head and shoulder pattern and we were waiting for the confirmation. As expected, prices broke above the important resistance of 6160 and closed on the positive note at 6244.
In short, for today’s trading session ……………
In December commodities used to have subdued movements but this time the market dynamics looked to have changed and there are very strong trending moves ongoing in a few of the commodities.
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