Nifty: Power of Fibonacci ratios, see how accurately it is working!

Below research shows power of Fibonacci ratios especially 76.4% which we have identified as working extremely well on Nifty. It clearly shows application of Neo wave along with Fibonacci and how it helped me to forecast the target around 10320 levels just before the big down move happened.

Following was published in our daily research report – The Financial Waves short term update on 5thFebruary 2018. Look at the below chart and the forecast done near 10320 levels based on Fibonacci retracement of the entire wave g.

Nifty 60 mins chart: (shown in morning on 5th February)

Happened:

Elliott Wave analysis:

Following was published on 5th February 2018 before the collapse-

In previous update we mentioned that “introduction of Capital gains is going to result an impact which is not yet discounted maybe due to artificial support. Trade carefully as the swings can still be big over next few days! ….break below 10878 will be strongly bearish!” BANG ON!

We have been accurate in pointing out that the move seen on the Budget day can be an artificial support and markets are yet to discount it. So, the Budget acted as a catalyst in the already weak market. Above that DJIA – US major equity index cracked more than 650 points in single session which was not seen in years. Now everyone will suddenly start talking about bond yields going higher which was already rising over past few weeks. People are still not focusing on currency markets that have been sending across warning signs even before Budget that I have been talking about all the while. So there have been enough warning signs and we concluded our wave g at the highs on the Budget day itself.

Now looking at the violent nature of the fall there is high probability that a very important top might be in place. A euphoric rise getting culminated by equally fast reversal can be dangerous as lot of long positions are stuck near the highs and there is not much shorts build up since the reversal was dramatic.

Finally, Nifty cracked by more than 250 points. I am saying finally because this will bring back sanity to markets. You might have seen everyone on the street has started giving stock tips irrespective of any basis. Greed – one part of emotion had been in power for way too long and made people lethargic and complacent. A correction is important to ensure sanity returns and necessary home work has to be done before taking any positions. Case in point – You should not be surprised or rather shocked to see sharp correction. We were expecting a reversal anyways.

In my latest webinar you can see the reasons why this topping was imminent – Nifty crash post Budget? Is a top in place?

On hourly charts, you can see that prices have probably completed the entire rise and is now retracing this towards 76.4% levels which is at 10320. It is best to avoid catching a falling knife and trading in direction of the trend as long as Friday’s Gap area is protected. This week’s price action is going to be important and we will be closely seeing if it is indicating a bigger degree correction on downside.

Happened: The above was published just before the crash from 11000 to 10276 levels. This simply shows power of Advanced Elliott wave when applied along with Fibonacci retracement and projections.

So, what is next from here? Are we headed for another crash and is it just the beginning?

To know what is next from here subscribe to “The Financial Waves short term update” the daily research report that shows detailed analysis on Nifty, Bank Nifty and stocks. Also subscribe annually and get access to the monthly research report as a special offer for today! Visit Pricing page

How to trade using 5 minutes to daily charts based on Elliott wave, Neo wave and Hurst’s Time cycles, Fibonacci ratios? Attend the upcoming event on 10th and 11th March and get the power of technical analysis that can increase the accuracy of trades and investments multi-fold. Identify the stocks on daily basis and see what helped us to win the CNBC TV18 trade shows. Know more here or contact us on +91 9920422202 / 022 28831358. Limited seats left!

Stocks trading strategy and trades to win another CNBC TV18 Bull’s Eye trade show

I am glad to share across another win on CNBC TV18 trade show with substantial margin when the other contestants were negative:

12th February trades:  Stock tips – Buy: Abbott, SAIL, First Source solution Short: Glanmark Pharma

The week started with a Gap up in Nifty which showed the bullish nature in the market. Abbott was given a buy call when the prices were in favour with MACD and had shown a good rally in 1st hour of the market. SAIL & First Source started its week following NIFTY with a Gap-up which was a good sign to take a long position along with the confirmation of Accumulation & Distribution indicator which showed the buying pressure in both the stocks. Glenmark Pharma had ended with a Doji structure in the previous trading session after a strong selloff. Continuous red bars showed the decision of the market and so, I recommended a short on the Glenmark Pharma. All the stocks went in favour and rallied by more than 5% to 7%.

14th February trades:  Stock tips – Buy: Adani Ent, Cholamandalam Finance, L&T Infotech, Abbott

Nifty had opened with a bigger gap-up then its previous days Gap-up. Hence, I had bullish eye to select potential up-trend stocks. All four stocks that I recommended had followed Nifty to open with a big Gap-up. After opening Adani with 2 Gap-ups in the week, the stock showed a good call to go long. Also the stock maintained its level above 7day SMA. Cholamandalam and L&T Infotech started the day on a positive note bouncing on 7-day SMA making long green candles which indicated the potential up-move in the stock.

15th February trades:  Stock tips – Buy: Ashok Leyland, KEC, L&T Infotech, NCC

After Nifty opening with a Gap-up on the 3rd day, I selected all 4 stocks for long positions. Since the overall bias on Nifty was positive I selected all stocks for buy calls. Also IT cycle has turned positive and L&T infotech was outperforming with strong Elliott wave pattern.

16th February trades:  Stock tips – Buy: Bombay Dyeing, Pfizer. Short: Repco Home, MSumi Sumi

Nifty started with a positive note but could not survive the 4th Gap-up and plummeted for straight 4 hours. Repco Home and Mother Sumi were classic bets that showed sharp fall after opening. These stocks have been very weak and did not rally the previous days when Nifty was moving higher. This itself showed stark underperformance and they were supposed to start wave iii on downside.  In addition to that, both stocks were trading below their 7&14-SMA.

The above strategy clearly highlights the fact that knowing the internal Elliott wave pattern of individual stocks along with Nifty direction is extremely important. It is not necessary that you will make money by simply being long on any stocks in the current market. Stock selection based on Moving averages, Channels, Elliott wave and much more is required.

If you would like to subscribe to daily research reports and stock tips visit Pricing Page

Learn the detailed process of Stock selection, Portfolio creation, Intraday trade setups using above methods. The above is a proof of how brilliantly the techniques work. I will be discussing in detail all of these methods – how to buy in morning and sell in evening to how to create portfolio of stocks for investments. More details about the upcoming training click here

What is Hurst’s Time cycles, its application on Nifty?

Hurst suggested that there are certain standard cycles which are universal and can be applied on any asset classes. Many cycle analysts often complain that cycles vanish without giving prior indication. The major reason being interaction of different cycles of varying magnitude.

The subject might look complicated but it is no different than Elliott wave principle. The major difference is Hurst Cycle analysis helps us to predict time and Elliott wave focuses more on price. This element of time can help us to forecast the Elliott wave pattern that can form in future.

As shown in below chart we have applied Time cycle on Nifty Daily chart along with Neo Wave. The important part of Hurst Cycle is that if you know that major as well as smaller degree cycles are citing towards probable bottom or top then you can save yourself from making wrong trade. In market “when not to trade is the key to success”.

Nifty daily chart:

The above chart clearly shows important areas when Nifty formed lows near the above cycle. We have turned bullish based on these lows. Also a few days or maybe two weeks prior the markets topped out. This time it was no different and we can clearly see it topped out in 2nd half of the cycle. So by applying cycle analysis you can know when important lows or tops should be formed.  

This study of cycle analysis is independent of price forecasting that we do using Advanced Elliott wave i.e. Neo wave.

Imagine the power you will have if Time cycles and Neo wave price pattern both are in sync and pointing towards same direction.

I have discussed in much detail about Hurst’s Time cycles in my latest webinar – You can watch it here

In addition to above we have been mentioning Nifty daily intraday calls in our trading research reports. Below are the past few days of Nifty calls given:

Anticipated in morning of 19th Feb 2018 – Short positions can be created below 10430 with 10480 as stop and target of 10390.

Happened: Nifty moved precisely as expected and achieved the target of 10390 immediately.

Anticipated in morning of 16th Feb 2018 – Short positions can be created below 10500 with day’s high as stop and target of 10460 levels. BANG ON!

Happened: Nifty has been moving precisely as expected. Prices broke 10500 and quickly reached the target levels

Anticipated in morning on 15th Feb 2018 – long positions can be created on move above 10550 with 10510 as stop and target of 10580.” BANG ON!

Happened: Nifty moved precisely as expected and crossed the target levels on upside.

Nifty research report – The above clearly shows how accurately intraday trading strategy mentioned in Nifty trading update has been working despite of all the volatility. Subscribe to Nifty research report here

Equity research report – Also we show the detailed Neo wave counts in our daily equity research report “The Financial Waves short term update”. Subscribe now to “The Financial Waves short term update” and see yourself where is Nifty and stocks headed from here on. Visit Subscription page here

Upcoming Training on Time cycles & Neo wave– You can learn these methods in the upcoming training on Advanced Elliott wave – Neo wave, Hurst’s Time cycles. All of these methods when combined together have resulted into brilliant outcome that you can see above. Also before the training itself, there will be FREE Elliott wave video links shared across that will ensure you can learn even the basics of technical analysis and Elliott wave well before the two days’ workshop. There cannot be better investment than this. Post the training Mr. Kyal himself will be more than happy to clarify the doubts by starting a special Discussion forum meant only for the attendees where you can post your personal charts and trades. Register NOWas only a few seats left. For more details visit Training on Time cycles and Neo wave or to block your seat today itself directly call / whatsapp on +91 9920422202. Trust me this can be one of the best investments you can make!

How to trade using Neo wave and Hurst’s Time cycles?

How to trade using Elliott wave, Neo wave, Hurst’s Time Cycles using 5 minutes to daily charts – Identifying trading opportunities on Equity, Commodity, Forex & Bitcoin. For more details visit : https://www.wavesstrategy.com/technical-analysis-training-on-elliott-wave-neo-wave-hursts-time-cycles-crypto-stocks/

What is difference between Elliott wave and Neo wave? Application on Nifty charts!

Neo wave is an Advanced Elliott wave method with more number of rules and newer patterns to increase the overall objectivity.

Orthodox Elliott wave was originally discovered by R. N. Elliott in 1930s. His original work mentioned that stock market does not move randomly but in systematic fashion that follows Fibonacci numbers and natural laws. This systematic movement in prices are in form of waves. Normally there are 5 steps forward and 3 steps backward resulting into a net progression which is valid for stock market as well. The concept cannot be just applied but one needs to understand the basic premise and certain rules to apply it objectively.

Any price movement as per basic Elliott wave is classified into Impulsive and Corrective. There are various patterns within these broader heads. Impulsive waves need to follow three basic rules:

1. Wave 2 cannot retrace complete of wave 1
2. Wave 3 cannot be the shortest of the directional waves 1, 3 and 5
3. Wave 4 cannot enter into territory of wave 1

The above 3 basic rules if followed then the price movement under consideration can be classified as a normal Impulse wave.

However, when the market structure is complex there is possibility that the movement can be counted in many different ways. This can result into subjectivity and the entire purpose of wave theory can be lost. To overcome this limitation Neo wave was developed that has more than 15 different rules to define a simple impulse pattern. Following are a few of them:

1. Wave 2 cannot retrace more than 61.8% of wave 1
2. Wave 3 cannot be the shortest of the directional waves 1,3 and 5
3. Wave 4 cannot enter into territory of wave 2
4. There has to be atleast one extended wave which is going to be 1.618% of non extended wave. If there is no extension then the pattern under consideration is corrective
5. One of the directional waves should subdivide
6. Corrective waves should consume more time than the preceding impulsive wave
7. Touch point rule: Out of 6 points not more than 4 points should lie on the channel
8. …
9. …etc

The above shows only a few set of rules for an impulse pattern as defined by Neo wave. There are newly developed patterns as well which were never a part of original Elliott wave. To name a few are:

–   Diametric Pattern

–   Neutral Triangle

–   Extracting Triangle

–   3rd Extended Terminal with 5th Failure

These new patterns are equally important to understand because majority of the movement seen in the world equity markets are taking the forms of these patterns that were never covered in original work of R. N. Elliott

We take a step ahead and combine this complex study of Neo wave to that of Time cycles. It is not always that both the studies will be in sync but when they are indeed suggesting the same outcome that is the time that the trade setup is of very high accuracy and it just leaves only one probable outcome. These are the times when one can go all in with prudent risk and money management strategies which have the potential to give the best of the returns in shortest amount of time.

Below part of research was shown 01st February 2018 daily research report when Nifty was in the toping zone that too on the Budget day!

Nifty 60 mins chart – Anticipated on 1st February 2018

Nifty 60 mins chart – Happened & Anticipated on 2nd February 2018

Happened as on 6th February 2018:

Nifty 60 mins chart:

The above charts are self-explanatory and simply show power of Neo wave.

Following was mentioned on Budget day before markets opened on 1st February 2018

“It is best to trade systematically with 10920 as very important support and 11170 as important resistance. As the fall of past two days is overlapping without any momentum we might see positivity or atleast a retest of 11120 levels.” BANG ON!

Happened: Nifty touched high of 11117 before reversing for the month

On 2nd February morning research we mentioned that – it seemed to be a populist Budget like everyone expected but introduction of Capital gains is going to result an impact which is not yet discounted maybe due to artificial support. Trade carefully as the swings can still be big over next few days! Move above 11120 is must to resume the positive trend else break below 10878 will be strongly bearish!

Happened: Low at 10878 was broken and everyone knows the serious selloff resulted into price moving towards 10276 levels in less than a week.

The above clearly shows how understanding Neo wave pattern helped us to catch a top when majority were busy buying exactly at the wrong levels and wrong time. The fall also happened precisely towards the level of 76.4% retracement of the rise which was shown on the daily research report.

References are taken from “The Financial Waves short term update” daily research report which covers Nifty, Bank Nifty and stocks on rotational basis and “The Financial Waves Monthly update” that shows medium to long term perspective on Nifty, INR Pairs, Global Markets, Gold, other commodities. For subscription options visit Pricing Page

Valentine day’s offer-  Subscribe to any of the research product today and get flat 20% off. For more details please get in touch on helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com or what’s app us at +91 9920422202

Attend the most Advanced Technical analysis training on Application of Neo wave and Time cycles with practical charts on different time frames for intraday to positional trading and investments. This training will focus on the above methods along with lot of other studies which can be combined together to produce very high conviction trade setups. Register NOW – For more details Contact US or write to us at helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com or call us at +91 22 28831358 / +91 9920422202

Equity markets can stabilize in this week after sharp correction. Expect range bound movement!

Following is the English transcript of the article published in Economic Times section of Navbharat Times by Ashish Kyal, CMT published today morning before markets opened.

Sensex Weekly Chart:

Equity markets can stabilize in this week after sharp correction. Expect range bound movement!

Indian Equity markets showed sudden and sharp reversal from the start of the month. Prices decline after the Budget session on 1st February. Sensex made life time highs near 36444 and made a low near 33482 on 6thFebruary. This was a fall of nearly 2960 points in just a few days of time. The selloff cannot be contributed to Budget policy outcome alone but also to the weakness seen in Global equity markets. Introduction of Long term capital gains – LTCG did hit the sentiments of investors but this followed by global equity selloff resulted into sudden decline on Indian equity markets.

Global markets – US Equity index – DJIA showed one of the biggest declines over past few days falling more than 12% in just over 2 weeks. Other major equity indices like UK index – FTSE, Hong Kong index – Hang Seng, Japanese index – Nikkei225 all showed sharp fall. Such systematic selloff of this magnitude was previous seen during the fall of 2007 – 2008. It is therefore important for investors to remain cautious and buy only stocks with attractive valuations.

Prices to Earnings ratio remains a concern – Price to earnings ratio (PE) remains a concern. This fundamental parameter touched 27.81 levels in January 2018. Such elevated level was previously seen during January 2008 before the crash. Many of the Midcap and Smallcap stocks have crossed the level of even 100. This clearly reflects that prices have deviated from their fundamental valuations and therefore correction after such big rally is a healthy sign.

Sharp depreciation in Indian Rupee – Indian Rupee depreciated sharply against basket of currencies GBP, JPY and EURO since start of 2018. Such sharp fall in INR against this major currency pairs risk the fear of money flowing out of the country to safer assets. It will be important to see if currency markets also stabilize over next few weeks.

Bond yields a concern – Bond yields across the global markets have been on a rise. With rise in inflationary pressure it is feared that interest rate cycle has also changed. Such reversal will eventually impact the Equity markets. In normal economic cycle during inflationary mode it is the Bond prices that top out first followed by Equity and then commodities. So, if Bond prices have reversed already, eventually the pressure will be seen in equity markets. Indian Bond yields have also risen steadily over past few weeks raising concerns that the interest cut cycle is over.

Week ahead – Given the above fundamental and technical insights looking at the overall price pattern there is possibility that Sensex can show some stability in this week. Prices have important support near 33480 on downside and resistance at 34900. This is the broad range within which we can expect prices to move. Investors and traders should maintain strict stoploss and buy only the stocks that are fundamentally sound and are trading at attractive valuations!

Gold – Will it glitter again with fall in Equity markets

As the Indian equity markets have been in a frenzy and global markets are also witnessing aggressive selloffs, it will be interesting to see if investors turn towards gold for a safe haven.  Rise in gold prices can also be attributed to the depreciation of INR since they are inversely correlated. In our daily commodity report published on 7th February 2018 we can see how flawlessly on hourly scale prices are moving within the upward sloping channel.

Is it time to turn to Gold again?

Look at the below chart of Gold from “The Commodity waves short term update” a daily research report

Gold 60 mins chart:

Elliott Wave analysis:

Below had been published in today’s morning research report

Comex Gold has managed to protect its previous low of 1323 levels. As long as this level is intact trend remains positive.

As shown in daily chart, prices are near its channel resistance. Post making a high near 30800 levels prices are moving sideways. As long as 50 periods EMA is maintained at 29577 levels trend remains positive over medium term.

As shown on hourly charts, prices are hovering near its channel support trendline. It will be interesting to see if it manages to protect this level. Break of previous low of ….. levels can infuse selling pressure over short term which can take prices towards … levels or lower levels. Break above 30300 levels will ensure revival of up trend.

In short, Gold is impulsive. Break of the levels mentioned will provide trading opportunity.

There is a possibility that the asset which has been out of flavor for so long can start gaining attention as the global equity market turmoil starts. Is it time to switch the asset from Equity to Gold?

Subscribe Now “The Commodity waves short term update” and see yourself the power of impulsive pattern on Gold, Silver, Crude and Copper. Get access here.

Identifying Impulse pattern is the key to trade successfully. Would you like to learn how to identify such patterns that can help from trading strategy across Nifty, Bank Nifty, stocks, Gold, commodities and more? Register for the upcoming event on 10th and 11th March and learn how to apply technical analysis from 5 minutes to daily charts… For more details visit here

Nifty collapsed with Global markets, What is next?

Nifty crashed more than 390 points on intraday basis after the collapse on DJIA and global markets. Everyone is busy finding reasons to selloff but Elliott wave helped us to trade on short side well before this happened.

After the sharp decline with no major event globally, many are busy justifying the selloff and talking about yields tightening. But how does it help after the selloff happened?

Is there a way to catch such reversals, absolutely “YES”. Look at the below chart of Nifty when we marked a top is in place.

Also in my latest webinar last Friday 2nd March 2018 I mentioned Post Budget we might be topping – watch the webinar here

Now also look at the below chart we showed

Nifty 60 mins chart – Anticipated on 2nd February 2018 morning research report

Nifty 60 mins chart: Happened

Following was mentioned in morning of 2nd February in daily equity research report –

In short, it seemed to be a populist Budget like everyone expected but introduction of Capital gains is going to result an impact which is not yet discounted maybe due to artificial support. Trade carefully as the swings can still be big over next few days! Move above 11120 is must to resume the positive trend else break below 10878 will be strongly bearish!

Following was mentioned in morning of 5th February in daily equity research report –

In short, trend for Nifty remains firmly negative as long as 10880 is intact. Keep riding the trend using trailing stop method and the positions are already in the money that shorted on break of Budget low. Such sharp trends are rare but market did provide us with warnings before reversing. Let us see how far it goes from here! BANG ON!

Happened: Nifty collapsed along with global markets and now everyone is talking how we recovered from the lows. Our clients subscribed to daily morning research reports were already warned and asked to short as you can see above. We have been giving sell calls over past few days in our daily stock tips and advisory.

Movement of Nifty is no surprise for us and volatility was supposed to increase. So what is next from here? Did we form a short term low? Or Is it just the beginning of a bigger downtrend?

“The Financial Wave short term update” is our flagship research report consisting of views on Nifty, Bank Nifty and stocks. Subscribe now and see where we are headed from here on. Visit Pricing Page

Attend the Most Advanced Training on Technical analysis and application of Elliott wave, Neo wave, Hurst’s Time cycles on charts right from 5 minutes to daily and weekly. Also learn the power of forecasting and trading that helped to catch a BIG reversal this time as well. Only a few seats left. Register now and get free research reports until 15th February 2018. Know more

Nifty crashed post Budget? Is a top in place?

#Nifty has shown sharp reversal post #Budget2018. In this webinar I will discuss latest #Elliottwave pattern, technical analysis on #Nifty, #stocks and much more. Visit https://www.wavesstrategy.com for detailed research and stock tips, commodity tips, currency tips

Nifty crashed post Budget? Is a top in place?

#Nifty has shown sharp reversal post #Budget2018. In this webinar I will discuss latest #Elliottwave pattern, technical analysis on #Nifty, #stocks and much more. Visit https://www.wavesstrategy.com for detailed research and stock tips, commodity tips, currency tips

How to do trade Nifty post Budget?

Nifty had a volatile movement today and it was much eventful as expected. We were expecting a move of around 170 points anyways and mentioned that in our morning research report. We also pointed out that Capital gains can result into negative surprises!

Interestingly after the long term capital gain announcement Nifty reacted sharply lower and touched intraday low near 10879 but recovered back sharply towards 11117 levels before finally closing near previous close. On previous occasions as well we have seen similar behavior where prices will gyrate all over the place but settles where it opens!

Food for thought: Despite such huge negative news there was a strong recovery which seems like a planned action after the event. It is just a speculative idea but government would have expected a collapse if markets are not supported post introduction of capital gains.

Let us look at the below chart of Nifty and we were expecting during the day with the upside target given clearly today morning!

Nifty 60 mins chart: as per chart published on 1st February 2018 before markets opened

Happened as of 1st  February 2018 post Budget

Following is a gist of the research published on 1st February 2018

Elliott Wave analysis:

Anticipated– “Over past we have seen that Budget acts as reversal of trend atleast over short term. This time it is little tricky as over past two days we are seeing a correction and looking at that there can be minor positive reversal which can result into retest of highs around 11130 levels on upside. On downside 10920 can act as an important support. Also past data shows that between highs and lows we have seen an average movement of around 170 points. So going by that logic there is possibility that we can see a move towards 10970 – 10940 and then a pullback towards 11130 levels…..As the fall of past two days is overlapping without any momentum we might see positivity or at least a retest of 11120 levels.

Happened : Nifty moved precisely as expected. On downside the projection did overshoot because of the long term capital gain but then the buying was seen precisely towards 11117. We cannot be more accurate than this on an event day. Prices moved lower and then rallied to retest the levels mentioned in the morning research report.

So what is next from here?

The above research clearly highlights power of Elliott wave. You can subscribe to “The Financial waves short term update” our flagship research report containing Nifty, Bank Nifty and stocks using not only above but many more methods of forecasting. See yourself how this is helping our existing subscribers. Subscribe NOW!

Learn the above methods – You now have the opportunity to learn these methods. I will be providing detailed explanation right from 5 minutes chart for intraday traders to weekly charts for investors and showcase the power of technical analysis. Imagine the power when you combine them along with Time cycles as well! Also see how these techniques can be applied practically on charts of Equity, Commodity, Forex, Bitcoin, Mutual Funds and much more. Know more here