Nifty / Sensex: Do you also have a miss out feeling!

Nifty / Sensex: Do you also have a miss out feeling!

For more information visit www.wavesstrategy.com

Nifty had biggest one day gain since 21st September 2012. It continued the uptrend and gained more than 1.5% on expiry day!

While most of the traders were waiting for opportunity to get into the market, we were already into the market with profits booked. Our daily market “Financial Waves Short Term Update“ research report gave our subscribers view on Nifty before market opened and to be in right direction of the trend…

Nifty continued to show spectacular rally and registered one of the biggest rally since the middle of wave 3 in September.Current expiry had been different than the previous past few months, as expiry days had been quiet with relatively narrow range bound movement.

As shown in our report on 29^th November, 2012 before market opened:

Nifty close was 5720 before following was published on 29^th November morning report:

Looking at the current advance in Nifty and Sensex it looks impulsive and as prices have closed above 5700 levels we think wave 5 has started.

First target for this wave 5 is ………. which is 61.8% of ……. and also other cluster of resistances comes in that zone. Also in the up move from 4770 none of the waves out of wave 1 and wave 3 are extended and so there is a possibility that wave 5 can form an extension opening up target for wave 5 to ……….

As shown on 60 mins chart, ….… which was resistance before will now become strong support and as long as this level is intact on downside our bias is positive.

In short, our bias is positive for a move towards …… with ……….acting as important support level.

Nifty spot trading currently (30^th November 2012) at 5865….

This is not it…There is more left to the current trend. Don’t be the last person to enter the trend but know the important levels and targets. Simply subscribe to “The Financial Waves Short term update”. In case you do not want to see the charts but just want to receive trading calls, subscribe to our advisory or chat assistant services and receive calls directly via sms or on messenger. For more information write to us at helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com

Tips on Copper Ashish Kyal of Waves Strategy CNBC TV18 30th November 2012

Tips on Copper Ashish Kyal of Waves Strategy CNBC TV18 30th November 2012. For more information visit  www.wavesstrategy.com

Nifty started next leg on upside!

Following has been published in the morning report “The Financial Waves Short term Update”. To subscribe and see the daily wave counts as they are developing write to us at helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com or visit www.wavesstrategy.com

Bottom Line: Nifty had biggest one day gain since 21^st September 2012. The trend remains positive for wave 5.

Nifty Daily chart:              

Nifty 60 mins chart:

Nifty Expanding pattern (Alternate scenario):

Wave Analysis:

We mentioned in previous update, “Advance decline ratio showed improvement and Midcap & Smallcap sectors outperformed major index the previous day. It will be important to see if the outperformance can continue today as well. For positive confirmation move above 5650 is required, which can take prices towards 5690 levels. A close above 5690 will increase the odds that next trend has started on upside.”

 Nifty opened above 5650 level which was important resistance and showed very good rally throughout the day, finally closing near day’s high at 5728. We have mentioned before that important resistance levels are normally taken out with Gap and this time as well 5650 was broken on upside with a Gap up opening.

As shown on daily chart, prices took support on the channel and Time cycles showed on Sensex gave 19^th November 2012 as possible day of bottom formation. We mentioned in our 16^th November 2012 report, “Assuming that this 69 days cycle is still working the cycle low date was 7^th November 2012. Giving + 8 days leeway we get a date maybe today or 19^th November for an important low to be formed.” The low formed on 19^th November was 18256 and on 20^th November was 18255.77. Over past 10 days prices have not come close to these levels and a very important low is in place!

Looking at the current advance in Nifty and Sensex it looks impulsive and as prices have closed above 5700 levels we think wave 5 has started.

First target for this wave 5 is 5950 which is 61.8% of wave 3 and also other cluster of resistances comes in that zone. We will closely observe how prices react from these levels. Also in the up move from 4770 none of the waves out of wave 1 and wave 3 are extended and so there is a possibility that wave 5 can form an extension opening up target for wave 5 to 6500. However it is too soon to adopt that scenario as of now and we will wait to see how prices move near 5950 levels.

As shown on 60 mins chart, prices are in minute wave iii of wave (i) of 5. 5650 which was resistance before will now become strong support and as long as this level is intact on downside our bias is positive.

Alternate scenario of expanding triangle suggests that the current leg is wave e and one more leg is pending on downside. However this is a lower probable scenario as of now looking at the current move that looks impulsive. A move above 5760 will void this alternate pattern and confirm our preferred scenario.

In short, our bias is positive and wave 5 has probably started on upside for a move towards 5950 with 5650 acting as important support level.

Tips on Crude Ashish Kyal of Waves Strategy CNBC TV18 29th November 2012

Tips on Crude Ashish Kyal of Waves Strategy CNBC TV18 29th November 2012. For more information visit www.wavesstrategy.com

Trading Strategy & Sensex Time Cycles

Trading Strategy & Sensex Time Cycles

For more information visit www.wavesstrategy.com

In our previous article that was published on 19th November on the website we mentioned the following – “We are re-visiting 69 days cycle on Sensex. This cycle has worked very precisely in the entire fall of 2011. Also it has given the exact day of low on 26th July 2012. Assuming that this 69 days cycle is still working the cycle low date was 7th November 2012. Giving + 8 days leeway we get a date maybe today or 19th November for an important low to be formed. Failure to do that will increase the odds that this cycle has probably shifted to the low marked as wave ii. If prices manage to protect the lows at 18400 and move sideways from here it will confirm that 18400 should not be taken out atleast for few weeks.” BANG ON!!!

Sensex Daily chart:

Published on website on 19th November 2012 and showed in our daily research report on 16th November 2012 morning:

 Happened as on 27th November 2012: 

Happened: Sensex is quoting at 18792 and Nifty at 5709. Markets have behaved exactly as per Time Cycles, Elliott wave patterns. Simply knowing the above charts might not necessarily give you money unless the trading strategy and short term movements are properly timed and captured.

Subscribe now “The Financial Waves Short term Update” equity research and see yourself the important levels and the probable short term path that can lead to capturing the medium term up trends…To subscribe write to us at helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com

Tips on Copper by Ashish Kyal of Waves Strategy CNBC-TV18

Tips on Copper by Ashish Kyal of Waves Strategy CNBC-TV18. For more information visit www.wavesstrategy.com

Tips on Crude by Ashish Kyal of Waves Strategy CNBC TV18

Tips on Crude by Ashish Kyal of Waves Strategy CNBC TV18. For more information visit www.wavesstrategy.com

Trade Forex using technical analysis!

Trade Forex using technical analysis!

By Waves Strategy Advisors (www.wavesstrategy.com)

Most of the time we think of trading in currency pairs but we always stop and wait for the best opportunities and by the time the opportunity arrives, we believe that it is too late to act upon it.

Because most popular pairs are not necessarily where the best opportunities are. Your best opportunities are where Elliott wave patterns are the clearest. Here is an example of that.

GBPINR 60 mins chart:

GBPINR moved exactly as per Elliott wave counts. It is range bound and is expected to stay in a range of 88-86.80. Since the currency is range bound and it is hovering at the resistance of the upper extreme of the range placed at 88, upside is capped. As shown in 60 mins chart, the currency is consolidating in the above-mentioned range, and a sideways movement is expected.RSI is also giving negative divergence…

To know the exact levels and targets in all currency pairs i.e. “USDINR, GBPINR, EURINR andJPYINR” subscribe to our alternate day publication of “The Forex Waves STU” and don’t miss any opportunity in currency. Forex trading is not that difficult if done objectively using proper technical tools.

For subscribing write to us at helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com or can call us on 9920422202.

IDBI Bank showing a perfect Impulsive & Corrective Elliott wave pattern!

IDBI Bank showing a perfect Impulsive & Corrective Elliott wave pattern!

By Waves Strategy (www.wavesstrategy.com) or write to helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com

Bottom Line: Elliott wave counts works very well in stocks like IDBI. 

The below article itself shows how wave counts along with channel can provide a high probable trade setups.

IDBI Bank Daily chart:

(The wave counts have been purposely not shown as meant for paid subscribers)

IDBI Bank 120 mins chart:

Anticipated on 06th Novemebr 2012:

Happened:

Waves Analysis:

As discussed on 23rd October 2012, “Looking at current scenario it seems that IDBI should now participate in the current rally in the form of wave… and should provide the bullish opportunity in the coming trading sessions. In short, as long as 92 is intact on downside our bias is positive. Sustainable move above the previous day high of 98 will take prices higher till the previous high of 106 levels over medium term”. BANG ON!!!

IDBI moved perfectly as expected. Prices sustained above the downward sloping red channel, breached the previous day high of 98 and moved higher till 108.45 levels.

As shown above in 120 mins chart, prices have completed intermediate wave ……….. Looking at broader market, prices might continue the previous ……….and then it will provide the bullish opportunity.

Momentum indicator RSI exhibits the negative divergence (shown above in daily chart). Any move below ………… the alternate triangle pattern.

In short, …………. will act as an immediate support level.

To know the clear path & crucial levels for IDBI that we have shown in today’s “The Financial Waves STU” morning report published before equity market opens, subscribe now and know high probable trading setups on Nifty & 3 different stocks with Elliott wave counts, Channels and indicators applied together.

Contact information:  Email:  helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com Follow us on Linkedin / Facebook / Twitter: Waves Strategy

Sensex Time Cycles! Nifty expanding pattern...

Following was published in Financial Waves short term update report by Waves Strategy (www.wavesstrategy.com) on 16^th November 2012 morning report...

Sensex Daily chart: 

Wave Analysis:

We are re-visiting 69 days cycle on Sensex. This cycle has worked very precisely in the entire fall of 2011. Also it has given the exact day of low on 26^th July 2012. Assuming that this cycle is still working the cycle low date was 7^th November 2012. Giving + 8 days leeway we get a date maybe today or 19^th November for an important low to be formed. Failure to do that will increase the odds that this cycle has probably shifted to the low marked as wave ii. If prices manage to protect the lows at 18400 and move sideways from here it will confirm that 18400 should not be taken out atleast for few weeks.

As shown on Sensex, prices should rally in the form of wave v and a top should be formed around 19760 level by December end or first week of January 2013.

12 period and 34 period ROC is also providing important information. In the current period 34 period ROC has always turned from 0 line. Let us see if is repeated again!

Nifty Daily chart:

Nifty Expanding pattern (Alternate scenario):

We mentioned in previous update, “We are re-visiting 69 days cycle on Sensex. This cycle has worked very precisely in the entire fall of 2011. Also it has given the exact day of low on 26^th July 2012. Assuming that this cycle is still working the cycle low date was 7^th November 2012. Giving + 8 days leeway we get a date maybe today or 19^th November for an important low to be formed… A move above 5700 is important for positive confirmation that wave 5 has started. As long as this level is protected on upsides expect some sideways consolidation between 5600 and 5660. A move below 5600 can take prices towards 5580 level.”

Nifty had a minor gap up opening but prices failed to sustain near 5650 level and gave a steep fall on downside. Prices moved down after completing wave b near 5650 levels as expected and shown on 60 mins chart. However we expected fall to be restricted near 5600 – 5580 level but prices failed to take support near those levels and made a low of 5560. The movement was very fast and did not give much time for short term traders to take action.

We are now showing one more possibility of an expanding triangle pattern. This pattern has a typical property of breaking important support and resistance levels but only to reverse later. The above 60 mins chart clearly shows these characteristics. Prices are currently in wave d of wave (b) which can get completed near 5545 levels. However we will require a reversal at those levels before changing our short term bias to positive from negative. Expanding patterns do not give much respect for crucial levels and this can be observed in Friday’s market action as well.

In short, the bias is negative but indicators are extremely oversold and Time cycle bottom is near. However price confirmation is important and as long as 5650 is not taken out on upside we will remain cautiously negative. A move below 5350 will overlap wave 4 with wave 1 and will indicate that our assumption of current impulsive structure from low of 4800 is wrong. However, this looks a lower probable scenario as of now.

Next few days of price action is extremely important which will give more clues of ongoing wave structure. 

For more information visit www.wavesstrategy.com or write to helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com

Gold movement after Diwali – festive season!

GOLD MOVEMENT AFTER DIWALI – FESTIVE SEASON!

By Waves Strategy - www.wavesstrategy.com

“It is general belief that Gold rallies before Diwali on increase in demand for precious metal.”

If this would have been always true making money for Gold traders would have been a cake walk. However, India alone is not responsible for movement of bullion prices and it is therefore imperative to monitor Gold price movement in world markets. The Commodity Waves report gives view both Comex (international) Gold and MCX (domestic) Gold.

Comex Gold (chart shown in daily report), since last two trading sessions prices had done nothing but consolidated sideways between the stiff range of 1715-1740 levels. Till now prices have retraced 50% of the previous down move from 1790 to 1670 levels. In near term, move below ………. while move above ………will resume the uptrend…

As shown above in daily chart of MCX Gold, in the first week of November 2012 prices have formed bottom near 30400 levels and rallied sharply till 31935 levels. Prices have exactly retraced 61.8% of the prior wave …… and it has tested the lower end of the blue channel (shown in 60 mins chart of Commodity waves report for paid subscribers).

Momentum indicator RSI has relived the overbought positions and arrived near the support of 30. Depreciation of Rupee against US Dollars limited the downside of MCX Gold and supported the current uptrend. Altogether indicates ……………

For more information on Commodity research report write to us on helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com or visit www.wavesstrategy.com.

Happy Diwali & Prosperous New Year!

Wishing you all a very Happy Diwali and prosperous New Year!

India's growth - Interview on Swiss business channel

Dukascopy: Swiss Business channel - Interview on India's growth by Ashish Kyal of Waves Strategy (www.wavesstrategy.com)

More information at  http://www.dukascopy.com/tv/#88950

Neo Wave: Advanced Elliott wave concepts

Neo Wave: Advanced Elliott wave concepts

By Waves Strategy Advisors (www.wavesstrategy.com)

Neo wave by Glen Neely is an advanced part of Elliott wave. In a simple Elliott wave there are only 3 basic rules:

1.       Wave 3 cannot be the shortest of wave 1, 3 and 5

2.       Wave 4 cannot overlap with any part of wave 1

3.       Wave 2 cannot retrace 100% of wave 1

However by using above rules for impulsive structure there is couple of probable scenarios always running. Neo wave has many rules to define a simple impulse pattern which are very rare. This tends to reduce the subjectivity and provide objectively the most probable scenario that can occur. Following are a few important rules that Neo wave gives

“Rules for Impulsive Waves”

1.       An impulse wave consists of 5 waves with wave 1, 3 and 5 traveling in direction of the impulse and wave 2 and wave 4 correcting the preceding wave

2.       Wave 3 cannot be the shortest of wave 1,3 and 5

3.       No part of wave 3 can break the 0 – 2 line

4.       No point of wave 5 can break the 2-4 line

5.       Touch point rule: Out of 6 points in impulsive wave not more than 4 points should lie on the channel.

6.       Rule of Equality: The rule of equality states that two unextended waves should tend towards equality in price / time.

7.       Overlap rule: No part of wave 4 can fall into the price range covered by wave 2

8.       Extension Rule: The longest wave should be atleast 1.618 times the next longest wave in terms of price.

9.       Rule of Alternation: Wave 2 and wave 4 should alternate in as much ways as possible – Price, Time, Severity, Intricacy, Construction

There is more to it. Learn systematic way of trading and trade only high probable setups by applying Advanced technical concepts. Write to us on helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com for more information or visit  www.wavesstrategy.com

Nifty after US elections

Bottom Line: Nifty looks to have started next leg on upside in the form of wave 5. The following is published in our today’s research report “The Financial Waves short term update”. To view the complete report, write to us at helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com visit www.wavesstrategy.com

Event: US presidential election:

                                                      “The Best is yet to come” – Barack Obama

·President Obama won a second term yesterday as he was re-elected and he promised his thrilled supporters "that for the United States of America the best is yet to come."

·Indian Markets gained for the sixth straight session. The 30-share Sensex ended up 85 points at 18,902 and the 50-share Nifty ended up 36 points at 5,760. In the broader markets, the midcapand the smallcap advanced 0.7-0.8% outperforming the BSE benchmark index, up 0.4%.

·The next president will need to address a so-called fiscal cliff of more than $600 billion in tax increases and spending cuts that take effect in 2013. 

Nifty 60 mins chart:

Wave Analysis:

We have mentioned in the previous update, “On daily basis, Nifty has given 5^th consecutive blue bars that raise the odds that wave 4 correction is complete at the low of 5580. In short, our bias is positive on Nifty with 5680 acting as important level on downside.”

Nifty had a flat opening yesterday but prices managed to sustain above the previous day’s low. After the announcement of clear victory of President Barack Obama in US there was a synchronized up move in global equity markets including India as soon as the announcement was made. However as US opened with a big Gap down, European markets also closed deeply in red. Sharp selloff seen in US and European markets later in the day can result into a Gap down opening in Indian markets as well.

Nifty has now moved above the resistance zone of 5725 and closed at highest level in more than 1 month.

Projection for current wave 5 is at ……………………….. The reasons why this level will act as very strong resistance are ………….

To view the complete report subscribe to the Equity research report that shows not only Nifty short to medium term views including daily chart but also views on 3 different stocks that gives good opportunity and shows important support and resistance levels or visit www.wavesstrategy.com

Nifty Elliott wave count

Bottom Line: Nifty had a big Gap up opening of 50 points and managed to sustain the gap for the rest of the day on Friday…

Nifty Daily chart:         

  

Nifty 30 mins chart:

Wave Analysis:

We have mentioned in the previous update, “A decisive close above 5680 will provide positive confirmation that wave 4 is over and final leg wave 5 has started on upside towards 5950. Failure of prices to cross above 5680 will indicate that complex correction is still ongoing and one more retest of level near 5580 is possible.”

Nifty had a strong gap up opening of more than 50 points on last day of the week and managed to sustain the gap throughout the day. After having strong opening prices moved in a range of 30 points. We have been observing that prices have been moving in such a narrow range after opening most of the times over past few weeks.

Nifty managed to break above the resistance of 5650 and 5680 with a Gap up opening and took support at 5680 level on intraday basis. This not only breaks one of the crucial resistance but also the downward sloping red channel on upside.

As shown on daily chart prices came close to the 0-2 trendline we have shown over past few months and bounced back from there. All this indicates that intermediate wave 4 is over at the low of 5680 and final leg on upside has started. However we will closely observe today’s movement and if we can see a follow-up rally after Friday’s gap up move. Also next important hurdle is at 5720 from where prices have turned down for more than 4 times in recent past.

From time perspective, a close observation of wave 3 suggests that it took 18 days if we exclude 1 Saturday (8^th September) on which market was working for 2 hours and 5^th October 2012 was an outside bar. This suggests wave 4 correction as complete even Time wise.

In short, it is important to see if the Gap of Friday remains unfilled today and prices manages to stay above 5650. A close above 5720 will provide further positive confirmation that wave 5 has started on upside for first target of 5950. A reversal taking prices back within the red channel shown on 30 mins chart and below 5650 will increase the odds that wave 4 is continuing in complex formation.

Applying Time Cycles on Reliance Industries

Applying Time Cycles on Reliance Industries

For more information visit www.wavesstrategy.com or write to helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com

“Cyclicality is a very important part of technical analysis”. Cycle theory gives a very different perspective to overall analysis and sometime becomes imperative to provide clarity on Elliott wave counts as well.

Cycles suggest that an important tops or bottoms are formed after a specific period in case of fixed cycles. For example: a stock following 60 days bottoming cycle will mean that a bottom is formed after every 60 days. Measuring bottoms using cycles are much more accurate compared to a topping cycle. However a few stocks do following topping cycle i.e. making a top after every specific period.

Below is an example of Reliance industries that shows 77 days alternating topping & bottoming cycle. This means that after every 77 days (+ 8 days) Reliance forms a top if it has formed a bottom the prior cycle period.

Reliance Industries Daily chart:

Below chart is from 26th September 2012 research report

Happened as on 01st November 2012

Cycle analysis:

We mentioned in Financial Waves short term report on 26th September 2012, “As shown in the daily chart, prices are following 77 days time cycle very well. After the completion of 77 days every time prices have either formed a top or bottom. At present prices have approached the time cycle and indicates the top formation near 885 levels. Since June 2012, 900 was acting as a strong resistance and prices reversed just below this level…. In short, failure to hold the support of 825 will take prices lower till the next support of 780 levels.”

Happened: Reliance made a low of 788 as on 1st November 2012.

Write to us on helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com or visit www.wavesstrategy.com to view the complete report that shows the combination of Elliott wave analysis, Indicators and Time cycles published in “The Financial Waves STU”