Nifty: How to form successful intraday trading strategy based on Elliott wave?

Nifty has been precisely moving as per Elliott wave pattern and you can see how to apply technical analysis to form intraday trading strategy.

Nifty showed huge volatility in last few weeks in which prices first moved lower from 10178 to 9688 level and post the same sharp rise towards 9945 level has been witnessed. However during the same time basic as well as advanced Technical methods have continued to help us to form short to medium term trading strategy.

It is thrilling experience to see that important reversal area has worked well even during the volatile period. Below is the glimpse of trading strategies on Nifty that has worked perfectly in last few weeks:   

Nifty 60 mins chart:

(Below is the part of research published in today morning)

Wave analysis:

“RBI maintained status quo on key policy rates in lines with expectations but the important thing to note is that markets continued to rally despite of no strong positive outlook. This is the reason that we say that events can result into short term movement that can last for few minutes to few hours but the original trend eventually resumes that we are seeing on upside.

Bank Nifty showed some underperformance and is yet to take out the highs of 24230 level which is important. Volatility was high as expected but move above 24230 will confirm a positive breakout in this sector. We are keeping a close watch on this.

Nifty after making a low near 9850 levels reversed on upside and continued to move higher towards 9838. So the zone of ….. is important support as prices have a Gap area below that. So existing long positions can now use .. as stop level and keep trailing it to make most out of the positive trend…”

Based on the Elliott / Neo wave analysis we generated the following trading strategies published in “The Financial Waves Trading update”.

Trading Strategy of 4^th October 2017:  Nifty can trade volatile in today's session due to monetary policy. For today, long positions can be created on move above 9870 with 9830 as stop and target of 9910. BANG ON!

Happened: It is interesting to see that even on RBI Monetary policy day; Nifty moved in lines with our expectation and achieved our mentioned target levels.

Trading Strategy of 27^TH September 2017:  For today, short positions can be created on move below 9840 with 9870 as stop and target of 9810 or lower. BANG ON!

Happened: Nifty moved lower precisely as expected.

Trading Strategy of 25^th September 2017: For today, short positions can be created on move below 9950 with 10000 as stop and target of 9900 or lower.

Happened: Nifty broke the level of 9950 and quickly moved below 9900 levels.

Trading Strategy of 21^st September 2017: Short positions can be created on move below 10110 with day's high as stop and target of 10070.

Happened: BANG ON! Nifty broke below 10110 and quickly moved below the target level as well.

The above trading strategies clearly indicate the power of technical methods which can help to capitalize in short to medium term trading. Get access to “The Financial Waves Trading Update” which covers Nifty with intraday trading strategy and “The Financial Waves Short Term Update” which covers Nifty with 3 different stocks on daily basis.

In case you cannot track the market yourself and want to receive trading tips during market hours with complete follow-up, target levels and stoploss you can directly subscribe to our Intraday / Positional advisory services.

Stocks Intraday trading strategy to win CNBC TV18 Bull’s Eye show!

Intraday trading strategy or Stocks Tips that helped me to win CNBC TV18’s Bull’s Eye stock trading show!

Nifty dynamic move from 18th Sep to 22nd Sep: Though the markets saw a fall of almost 160pts on Friday 22nd Sep we ended on the winning side on the CNBC Trade show. How? Let us have look on what were the strategies followed to maintain our consistency to manage positive returns on the amount of Rs. 400000

The most important thing that I personally follow is to understand the direction of major index before stock selection on each day. This helped me to gauge out of 4 stocks to pick daily, how many we need to have on the buy or sell side.

Notional amount of 400,000 was given that has to be spread across 4 different stocks on daily basis.

18th September trades: During the week Nifty had been constantly struggling to cross above the important resistance level of 10135- 10155. We mentioned the importance of these levels even in our daily Equity research reports. Nifty was consolidating in a range between 10050 and 100130. A breakout above 10155 was needed to see a further uptrend. The sectors that we were focusing on were Housing Finance, Auto, Gas Distribution on the Buy side as these were the sectors that were out performing and could have managed to achieve the specified target. Stock tips – Buy DHFL, IGL, TVS Motors, Sell Apollo Hospitals.

19th September trades:  Nifty had a positive closing in previous session and thus we maintained our strategy to keep 3 stocks in buy and one on sell side to hedge the entire portfolio. On second day once again I selected LT Finance which showed outperformance along with PFC and Biocon which were exhibiting short term breakout.  Within the same sectors also there can be some laggards and hence based on the same Repco Home finance was given on short side.

20th September trades: Based on the sideways action at higher levels in Nifty, we try to find out the strong momentum in select stocks. On the basis of the same Bharat Forge, STAR and Tata Chemical were preferred to give on buy side. On sell side LIC Hosing finance was given due to its weak structure.

21st September trades:  Although the market were struggling to maintain the upside trend, on observing the rally given by the Pharmaceuticals sector for 2 consecutive days we decided to focus more on Pharma stocks as they had been gaining momentum. We also included Bharat Finance as one of our picks on the buy side since the stock was outperforming and had made  a Flag pattern on the charts to see a breakout on upside trying to takeout its 52week high. To overcome any kind of disruption in the market trend we again preferred to have one stock on the selling side. Stock tips – Buy Dr. Reddy, Torrent Pharma, Bharat Financial Inclusion, Sell LIC Housing Finance.

22nd September trades:  Stock tips – Buy Ajanta Pharma, Biocon, Bharat Financial Inclusion, Sell Repco Home Finance. Since Pharma as a sector was outperforming we remained bullish and gave a buy call on Pharma stocks while being bearish on Repco Home finance being the underperformer. Even though the markets witnessed a sharp fall, we managed to restrict our losses for that day as our focussed remain on the Pharma space.

Overall, I managed to go long on Pharma on most of the occasions and short the underperformer on each day to hedge the portfolio to some extent that helped me close positive for the entire week when the other contestant closed in red 

The above strategy clearly highlights the fact that knowing the direction of major index is extremely important even when individual stocks have their own technical picture. These stocks lose their identity if the major undercurrent or index tone is strongly trending in one direction.

Evaluating individual stock technical charts are also important but identifying the number of stocks to be on the buy or sell side on each day based on overall market tone was the key to trading success during the week.

For reference anyone wants to read about strategies followed in May 2016 can refer the following link: Rules followed during ET Now game show where I won with substantial margin can be found in this link – Rules followed to win ET Now show by Huge margin

Another Bull’s eye trading strategy followed in September 2016 – Trading strategy to win September 2016

Bull’s eye trading strategy followed in September 2016 – Trading Strategy to win February 2017

The above is just to share across my personal experience during these shows.

Post the break of 10040 on Nifty we have been bearish all the while and the same has been mentioned in our daily equity research report – The Financial Waves short term update

Where is Nifty headed and trading strategy using Elliott wave?

Equity markets have shown sharp fall in today's session and Nifty, Bank Nifty, Stocks looks to have reversed. Visit https://www.wavesstrategy.com to know how to trade during such volatile times!

Trading Strategies I followed to win CNBC TV18 Bull’s Eye stock trading show!

Techniques followed during the week for stock selection and trading strategy adopted that helped to win the stock trading show Bull’s Eye on CNBC TV18

It is exciting to participate in the stock trading game show but at the same time it is important to live upto the expectations of millions by not betting on lower probable trades. It is important to follow prudent risk and money management strategies. Market dynamics this time were different than that before in May 2016 when I won ET Now show with substantial margin.

For reference anyone wants to read about strategies followed then in May 2016 can refer the following link: Rules followed during ET Now game show where I won with substantial margin can be found in this link – Rules followed to win ET Now show by Huge margin

Following are a few strategies I followed for Bull’s Eye show on CNBC TV18. Notional amount of 400,000 was given that has to be spread across 4 different stocks on daily basis.

• Identifying overall market direction is most important as majority of stocks behave in close correlation to index even though magnitude of rise or fall might be different

•  It was challenging to catch hold of momentum stocks during the week of 12^th September 2016 to 16^th September 2016 as the main index Nifty was in absolute sideways direction after a sharp decline on 12^th September.

• During such scenarios it is better to bet on the outperforming stocks for going long and shorting the ones that hardly showed any pullback

• Key differentiator was managing to consistently perform rather than betting everything in one direction when the trend was not clear

• Techniques like Neo wave, Time Cycle analysis on very smaller degree helped me to gauge the market direction on last day of the week i.e. 16^th September when I was expecting a correction after a brief run up whereas other participants maintained all buy calls, I was short on 3 stocks and long on only 1 stock – Cox & Kings that has tendency to move independent to the main index

• During final hour of the trade there was sharp selloff on majority of stocks and at the same time Cox & Kings recovered sharply into positive.

Definitely there is element of lady luck that also worked in favor and after the tough competition, I managed to outperform and was declared as a winner.

You might not find specific techniques which I followed during the day but various tools that I believe and practice rigorously is Elliott wave, Neo wave, Time cycles, Channels and identifying the direction of main index for the day is crucial to understand if it is better to be tilted more towards long side or shorts.

Techniques were more or less similar to that followed during May 2016 – ET Now game show. Please refer this link – Trading Rules to follow

In a nutshell, it feels good to win another stock trading game show when millions are watching but trust me the pressure is equally high…Actual trading is no different and a clearly defined strategy should be in place before you place your bets! Happy Trading…:-) For more details visit Contact US

Stock tips and Nifty trading strategy by Ashish Kyal on Zee Business

Following is the brief interview transcript Ashish Kyal had on Zee Business at 12.30 pm, providing stock tip and trading strategy on Nifty

Q: What should be trading strategy on Nifty given the pressure seen over past 2 days?

A: Nifty has failed to sustain above the important support mark of 7600 and also broke below the previous pivot low. This will keep the short term trend negative and it is therefore advisable to use sell on rallies strategy rather than buy on dips. One can initiate shorts keeping a strict stop of 7690 and target of 7450 levels.

Nifty hourly chart:

Q. Any stock in buy or sell will you recommend. Since the outlook on market is negative will you prefer giving a sell call?

A: As the overall trend looks negative for now it is better to short the underperforming stock. HDFC has been moving lower and is one of the worst performers in today’s session. Also the stock has broken the important support zone of 1090 which is the pivot level. One can therefore sell this stock on rallies keeping 1120 as strict stoploss and for the target of 1020 which is close to the previous pivot lows.

HDFC Hourly chart:

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Ashish Kyal,CMT Nifty trading strategy and for buying Amara Raja Batteries, selling SAIL and JP Associates on CNBC TV 18

Below is the verbatim transcript of Ashish Kyal's interview with CNBC-TV18

Ashish Kyal, CMT told CNBC-TV18, "One of the stocks that we have kept in buy even in this scenario is Amara Raja Batteries . It has managed to perform very well. The stock formed higher high, higher low when Nifty and other major indices, even midcap stocks have been crashing. It managed to fall hardly and has bounced back immediately as soon as we saw recovery. So, this stock looks good and we can expect a target of somewhere around Rs 1,085 but definitely a stop loss of somewhere around Rs 960 has to be placed. In case it falls below Rs 960 then some selling pressure can suffice. So, this stock looks good from short to medium-term perspective."

" Steel Authority of India  (SAIL) is a sell. Past week, we have been constantly saying that commodity stocks doesn’t look very promising and it is sell on any rallies. The stock was consolidating somewhere around Rs 55 and yesterday it gave a very sharp move below that. Even today it touched an intraday low somewhere around Rs 47. So, this stock looks weak and the bounce back we are seeing in metal index as of now should be only temporary. It is a global phenomenon right now. So, SAIL will be a sell with a stop loss of Rs 52. So, put that stop loss, in case it crosses Rs 52 there can be deeper retracement and the target we can expect is somewhere around Rs 45 on the stock," he said.

"Everyone is aware how Jaiprakash Associates  has performed over the past few months, rather the stock has come down from maybe around higher than Rs 20 level to sub Rs 10 levels and belongs to a very weak category. So, this stock is definitely a sell. The bounce back is again temporary and the stop loss should be used somewhere around Rs 9.70. We can expect this stock to go towards Rs 7 because it has broken the important psychological levels of Rs 10 and there has been huge volume with the fall. So, I don’t see the uptrend going to be sustainable for much longer time," he added.

"So, Amara Raja Batteries looks promising on the buy side and JP Associates and SAIL should be sold off on any rallies." 
(Source: moneycontrol.com)

For more details visit www.wavesstrategy.com or write to us at helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com or call us on +91 9920422202/+91 22 28831358.

How to capture the moves in Banking stocks applying Elliott wave theory and Fibonacci ratios?

Trading is simple if we use objective tools to trade the market.

“The Financial Waves Short Term Update” covers research on Nifty and 3 stocks with in-depth analysis. We have been using basic technical tools along with Elliott wave theory to ride the short to medium term trend. Recently we were able to capture the trend of SBI and the part of the same is shown below:   

SBI 60 mins chart: (Anticipated in the morning of 7^th April 2015)

SBI 60 mins chart: (Happened on 13^th April 2015)

(Part of research published in the morning of 7^th April 2015)

Waves Analysis:

As shown in 60 mins chart, prices have decisively broken the black downward moving channel and has made higher high higher low formation. This suggests that upside retracement of the prior down move has started. Now, as long as 263 level is intact on downside short term outlook for this stock will remain positive. However given the RBI Monetary policy today, one should trade with strict risk management and today’s closing will be important.

In short, with the support of 263 level short term outlook is positive for SBI. On upside prices are expected to move towards 285 level where channel resistance along with 50% retracement is placed of the prior down move.

Happened:  protecting the support of 263 level, prices moved higher and made a high at 294.90 levels on 17^th April 2015. Now, what should be the trading strategy?

Subscribe to “The Financial Waves Short Term Update” and for more information visit Pricing page

How to trade Nifty on intraday basis?

Trading becomes interesting with rise in volatility provided you are placed in right direction of the trend.

It takes intense research and analysis before executing trades. If you have time constraint and do not want to apply advanced objective techniques yourself leave it upto the experts who are looking and measuring the pulse of the market on daily basis.

The below shows past few Nifty trading strategies we have given in our daily research report “The Financial Waves Trading Update”

Anticipated the fall since 16^th April 2015:

Happened so far:  

On 16^th April before markets opened following was the trading strategy:

“For today, short positions can be created on move below 8720 with 8770 as stop and target of 8650”

Happened: Nifty moved exactly as expected and touched the intraday low near 8640 levels.

Trading Strategy on 17^th April 2015: “For today, short positions can be created on move below 8650 with 8710 as stop and target of 8580. Avoid creating long positions for today."

Happened: Nifty broke below 8650 and rushed towards the target area.

Trading Strategy on 20^th April 2015: “For today, short positions can be created on move below 8590 with 8640 as stop and target of 8520. Avoid creating long positions."

Happened: Nifty moved exactly as expected and moved even below the target area.

We do not say that the strategy given before the markets might work every time but the accuracy of around 70% to 80% should also suffice to have a profitable P&L on an average basis. A very big trend might. Do not get carried away that it is only buy on dips market probably it is time to evaluate and change the stand!

Subscribe to the daily Equity and Nifty research report and get insights into most objective techniques you might have come across to assist you in your trading and forming suitable strategies. For subscription options visit the “Pricing Page”

Nifty Elliott wave, Bollinger Bands®, MACD Trading Strategy before Budget!

Bottom Line: Nifty failed to close above 8900 or below 8800 and continued to move in a range. Break of either levels awaited for clear trend to emerge!

The below research was published today morning before equity markets opened in "The Financial Waves short term update" by Waves Strategy Advisors

Nifty daily chart:

Nifty 60 mins chart:

Elliott Wave Analysis:

Nifty had a range bound movement in previous week with prices touching the high of 8913 and low of 8793. There is a weekly Doji bar formation and a break of the range is important for clear direction ahead. Within this range IT stocks showed some outperformance and Bank Nifty failed to show any strong bounce back. Nifty has retraced around 80% of the previous down move whereas on other hand Bank Nifty which was leading the rally retraced only 50% of the entire down move. Also the bounce back in Bank Nifty is in overlapping formation so far which is not a good sign from medium term perspective. From weekly perspective, decisive break above 8913 will resume the positive trend whereas close below 8790 can result into short term downside reversal.

The recent up move which started in form of wave (c) of e from 8600 levels has so far taken 6 trading days. So a faster move back below 8600 in less than 6 days will indicate medium term reversal to downside. This will break the pivot level in lesser amount of time the up move took to form. Short term moving average of 20 days is also acting as an important proxy for trend. The support as per this average is also near 8600 levels.  

The movement of past few days has been exactly within the Bollinger Bands as shown on hourly chart. Prices have been moving sharply within the range but only to take support near the lower and upper areas of the Bollinger Bands. When on Thursday there was a strong move towards 8913 we expected a break on upside. However, prices reversed the very next day back towards 8800 support area. So now it is prudent to wait for an hourly close above 8913 or below 8790 for confirmation of the break of the band and start of the trend in that direction.

Range bound action has kept both Flat pattern and Triangle pattern possibility open. As mentioned above a faster reversal below 8600 will confirm truncation of wave (c) of e at the highs whereas on other side slower movement from here will indicate wave (d) of e is forming within a triangle pattern.

In short, Nifty is currently moving in a range but a clear trend should emerge on break of mentioned levels in this week. Leading sectors have failed to show any upside momentum which is a cautious sign and close below 8790 will result into short term downside reversal. Volatility can be high in current week ahead of Budget!

Attend the most comprehensive training on "Mastering Elliott wave - Neo wave with different Time cycle methods applied on more than 100 charts" The training is scheduled on 14th & 15th March in Mumbai at Grand Sarovar Hotel. For registration contact us at helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com or call on +91 22 28831358 / +91 9920422202

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