KST indicator developed by Martin Pring is an amazing way to look at the cyclicality in the markets.
Know Sure Thing (KST): To understand where we stand in terms of cyclicality of the market I am showing an indicator which is known to have worked extremely well – KST (Know Sure Thing). This indicator is developed by Martin Pring and it is nothing but a summation of various Rate of change indicator.
Rate of change (ROC) is an indicator that measures the momentum of the market. Infact, momentum is the speed with which prices are moving higher or lower. If prices are moving higher but with slower pace it is not a healthy sign.
ROC of different parameters measure different cyclicality of the market. By combining these different ROCs one indicator is taking care to reflect if the momentum is slowing across the different cycle period or not.
KST Print indicator – Nifty topping cycles (shown in the monthly research report)
In the above chart, we are showing the KST (red line) with the signal line (blue) which is …….. days Moving average of KST. The individual price ROC of ……………… days is shown below the KST for reference. By simply gazing at the individual ROC indicator we can see that across the time frames the readings are lower and very close to the 0 value. Also there are negative divergences on all of these ROC readings. This suggests that the cycles across the short term time frames are probably topping out.
To get better conviction and confirmation now look at the KST indicator. We can see that since 2018 onwards KST has never crossed above ……… reading and everytime it turned down from that zone by crossing below the signal blue line there has been significant correction seen in prices. This time as well KST has now turned down from 59 levels and is now moving below the signal line. Do note that prices continued to touch the life time high of 12159 before reversing from there. KST has turned down earlier than that thereby giving a leading signal and negative divergences with prices. Now break below the support zone of …… will indicate that the next wave on downside atleast towards ……… or lower has started. This will remain valid unless we see a close of the red line back above the blue on KST.
Topping 144 days Time cycle: Interestingly the turn in KST reading from the extreme levels have been very much cyclical. We can see that each of the turn has come nearly in 144 days including the one which was before the election outcome. The high made by index after the central election was with much lower reading on KST thereby providing strong negative divergence. This time we can expect …………..
Isn’t it amazing to see a simple indicator that has provided classical signals. So, will it work again? Get access to the monthly research now and see yourself where are we headed from medium term perspective. Also receive daily research report for short term patterns and trade setups. Get access here
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