Indian Equity markets have been
correcting post the high made at 9119
in month of March 2015, last year.
This high was also made after the slower pace of rally post the election
outcome in May 2014.
Shanghai Composite Index (China Equity market) topped out in June
2015 which was almost 4 months after the
high made by Nifty. Also developed markets have relatively outperformed
India over the entire period and did not show much of price correction but more
of time correction.
Now we are here and people are
looking back and started blaming China for the selloff but for an investor or a
trader it is simply providing a comfort value but carries no importance from
Investment or trading perspective.
Case in point: It is time to stop finding out reasons for the
correction but to use objective techniques that can help us forecasts the
future and take the right action in timely manner. We think that the correction
that started last year is now in its matured stage and we are now headed for
one of the very strong rise that can be witnessed.
Trust me news will change
drastically after the rise has happened and might look something like this – “Lower
Crude prices help India to reduce the deficit and provide much needed boost.
Corporate profits to improve drastically given fall in interest rates and
reduced commodity prices. Inflation is within the comfort zone and RBI governor
will be accommodative to ensure fast recovery in economy.”
Now coming back to the method we
think is an objective way to forecast the future trend – Elliott wave and Time
cycles
Nifty daily chart (India) compared to Shanghai Composite (China)
There are certain things that
work extremely well in markets but might be difficult to digest. Everything is governed by cycles and so is stock
market. There are instances when the turn in prices has happened exactly on the
cycle day and we have our records marked on charts to prove its importance.
These things are not random and that is why we see Channels, Fibonacci ratios, Elliott wave patterns, et al working
again and again and have stood the test of time for providing forecasting
ability.
It is time to stop blaming the events or China for that matter and
use the objective techniques to forecast the future trend. We are headed for
some golden era and yes, I might be off by a few months if it is not immediate
but it is worth the chance given the extreme pessimism amongst crowd which is
typical during major reversals. Check
the news back in August 2013 just before the major rally started and you
will find all the logical explanation why it was not the time to enter the
markets given the uncertainty of central elections in 2014.
Subscribe now to “The Financial Waves Monthly update”
along with “The Financial Waves short
term update” to objectively see where we are headed and why we think 2016
is has potential of being one of the strong years. Also understand forecasting
is all about probability and the evidences are enough for us to take this stand
but one should also understand the risk associated in case lower probable
scenario turns out. For subscription options visit Pricing Page
You can equip yourself with the
necessary tools by attending the two days workshop on Most advanced training workshop on technical analysis – Time cycles and Neo wave – Advanced Elliott
wave for Portfolio creation, Stock selection and Trade setups. Invest NOW
for this 2 days training in Mumbai on 12th and 13th of
March 2016. For registration Contact us at helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com or call
us on +91 22 28831358 / +91 9920422202.
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