Time Cycles and Neo Wave - Advanced Elliott Wave for Portfolio Creation, Stock Selection & Trading

The most comprehensive training on Elliott Wave, Neo Wave and Time Cycles is here…

Announcing Exclusive course on Time Cycles and Neo Wave - Advanced Elliott Wave for Portfolio Creation, Stock Selection & Trading…

Get ready for the markets in 2016. We strongly believe that the downtrend that started in 2015 is in matured stage and we are now getting ready for a very strong reversal and uptrend. For now there is no positive confirmation but the technique of Time cycle along with two stage confirmation as per Neo wave techniques which is Advanced part of Elliott wave is providing leading signals.

We have been able to capture the top in 2015 very accurately and are optimistic to rely again on these objective and scientific methods rather even if it is against the crowd to take correct and independent decision. You can also learn these techniques and start building on the experience of capturing the major turning areas.

Join us for the 2 days extensive course on Time cycles and Neo wave techniques for Portfolio building, stock selection and ideal trade setups

Course Highlights:

·  Ideal Trade setups to enter the market

·  Time cycles – A very important element to help reduce the number of probable scenarios to nearly one!

· How to make the most of the position by timing the exit

· Know when not to trade – A key to trading success

· Applying other techniques along with Elliott wave for high conviction trade setups

· How to keep the profits intact after a winning streak…

· Participate on our Discussion Forum to keep learning the technique even after the course.

· Post your charts after the course with the Elliott / Neo wave counts, Time cycles or any other techniques you like to apply and get instant feedback 

·Access to Free research for a limited period

When and where is the Course?

The training is at Hotel Grand Sarovar Premiere, Goregoan, Mumbai on 12^th -13^th March 2016. This belongs to 5 star category having chain of international hotels and the fees are including Tea / Coffee and Lunch.

Contents:

1. Overview of Elliott Wave

2. Neo Wave

3. Two stage confirmations

4. Diametric Pattern

5. Newly discovered patterns

6. Different Rules and guidelines

7. Cycle Analysis: Time the market with accuracy using Time cycles

8. Trade setups, Application of the concepts on charts

Who is the speaker?

Ashish Kyal, B.E., MBA, CMT

Ashish carries vast experience of analyzing World Equity, Currency and Commodity markets using techniques like Elliott Waves, Time Cycles, and momentum tools.

Ashish is a regular speaker on CNBC TV 18, Zee Business and Dukascopy- Swiss Business Channel. He frequently speaks at financial seminars like Market Technicians Association (MTA - USA), Association of Technical Market Analysts (ATMA), National Institute of Bank Management (NIBM), Sydenham Management college. He is on the selection panel of GDPI for premiere B- Schools and invited by Somaiya Institute of Management Studies and Research to speak on Entrepreneurship. He has also been invited as a guest speaker at National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) for the Post Graduate Certificate Program in Financial Economics, had been a chairperson for SIMSR International Finance conference.

Training Duration:

12 hours (6 hours daily)

Registration Fee:

Early Bird offer: Investment for the Training is Rs. 23000 + 14.5 % Service tax. If registered after 1st Feb 2016 charges would be Rs. 26000 +14.5 % Service tax

Registration is on first come first basis as there are limited seats.

For registration visit http://www.wavesstrategy.com/Payment.aspx or call us on +91 22 28831358 / +91 9920422202 or write to us at helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com

How Time cycles can be used from Trading perspective! Imagine the power when combined with Neo wave, Bollinger Bands, Channels

Nifty bounced back from the support zone near 7250 which had been very important support levels that we have been mentioning in our research reports for quite sometime.

We have been able to capture the majority of the turning areas very accurately including the major tops made at 9119 in March 2015, Top of August 2015 post which there was a crash from 8400 to near 7500levels and then the top made at 8200 followed by 7950. Each of these tops occurred exactly on the cycle day or very close to it. Below chart needs little explanation that shows the Topping Time cycle.

Figure 3: Nifty daily chart – 49 days Topping Cycle and Bollinger Bands (shown on 5^th January 2016)

Below cycle is picked up from the Monthly research report:

49 days Time cycle: We have seen bottoming Time cycles working very well but at times it is important to look at the Topping cycle as well. This 49 days Time cycle is shown in Figure 3 on Nifty daily chart. We have been using this topping cycle for many years now and it has produced the desired outcome most of the time. As per this important tops are formed every 49 days and we can clearly see the top of August 2015 post which there was severe selloff which was also formed on this cycle day. After 3 months we have seen a fall of more than 150 points on Nifty on 4^th January 2015. This indicates short term bearishness for few days.

This was about capturing the top. Now read below and see the chart yourself that helped us to capture the very crucial low made at 7240. The below chart was shown in the daily research publication “The Financial Waves short term update” on 18^th January 2016 well before market bottomed out near 7240.

Nifty weekly chart: (as shown on 18^th January 2016)

Bank Nifty daily chart: (as shown on 18^th January 2016)

The below research was published in morning of 18^th January 2016

Importance of Channel intersection: During times of high volatility and extreme sentiments the moist reliable technique that comes handy is the Channeling method. The weekly chart of Nifty shows two different channel intersections near the zone of 7250 – 7300. Intersection of trendlines are very important zone and becomes all the more relevant when it connects two different cycles. We can see that the support area as per the upward sloping blue channel which connected the euphoric rise of 2014 is near 7200. On the other hand, red downward sloping channel connects the cycle of correction of 2015. Interestingly the support of this channel is now near 7300 and to add importance to it both of these important trendlines is intersecting near 7250. This gives lot of objectivity and the worst case scenario analysis for the current trend…..

Happened: Nifty made a low at 7241 on 20^th January 2016.

Applying channel to leading sector – Bank Nifty: The sector that is leading the fall is Bank Nifty. The daily chart of Bank Nifty shows parallel lines connecting the tops and the lows. We can clearly see that prices are now approaching near the lower trendline of the channel with the support zone lying near 14700 – 15000 mark. We are now close to these levels and this week is going to be crucial. But please understand this doesn’t mean one should start creating long positions at current levels. Unless we see a base formation with strong positive close and faster retracement above the last falling segment it is prudent to avoid catching a falling knife and allowing the market to decide its low levels.

The zone of 7250 – 7300 is very crucial channel support on Nifty and 14700 – 15000 is the support zone on Bank Nifty. There is high probability these levels will be respected but let market confirm the scenario probably this week.

Happened: Nifty touched 7241 hardly 9 points below the level of 7250 on 20^th January and reversed sharply from there to move close to 7500 mark whereas Bank Nifty touched 14750 on same day close to the lowest level of 14700 which we mentioned and reversed sharply from there to move above 15500 in today’s session.

The above research shows the application of only Topping Time cycle along with Channels. Simply imagine the power when we combine this with Neo wave and indicators like RSI, Bollinger Bands to understand the path ahead and capture key reversal areas to ride the next trend!

Announcement:

Enroll Now for the Most advanced training on Technical analysis – Time cycles combined with Neo wave.

Announcing Exclusive course on Time Cycles and Neo Wave - Advanced Elliott Wave for Portfolio Creation, Stock Selection & Trading…

Get ready for the markets in 2016. We strongly believe that the downtrend that started in 2015 is in matured stage and we are now getting ready for a very strong reversal and uptrend. For now there is no positive confirmation but the technique of Time cycle along with two stage confirmation as per Neo wave techniques which is Advanced part of Elliott wave is providing leading signals.

We have been able to capture the top in 2015 very accurately and are optimistic to rely again on these objective and scientific methods rather even if it is against the crowd to take correct and independent decision. You can also learn these techniques and start building on the experience of capturing the major turning areas.

Join us for the 2 days extensive course on Time cycles and Neo wave techniques for Portfolio building, stock selection and ideal trade setups.

When and where is the Course?

The training is at Hotel Grand Sarovar Premiere, Goregoan, Mumbai on 12^th -13^th March 2016. This belongs to 5 star category having chain of international hotels and the fees are including Tea / Coffee and Lunch.

Training Duration:

12 hours (6 hours daily)

Registration Fee:

Early Bird offer: Investment for the Training is Rs. 23000 + 14.5 % Service tax. If registered after 1st Feb 2016 charges would be Rs. 26000 +14.5 % Service tax

Registration is on first come first basis as there are limited seats.

For registration visit http://www.wavesstrategy.com/Payment.aspx or call us on +91 22 28831358 /    +91 9920422202 or write to us at helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com

Nifty & Bank Nifty: Predicting crucial levels using Channel intersection technique!

Importance of Channel intersection: During times of high volatility and extreme sentiments the most reliable technique that comes handy is the Channeling method. The weekly chart of Nifty shows two different channel intersections near the zone of 7250 – 7300. Intersection of trendlines are very important zone and becomes all the more relevant when it connects two different cycles. We can see that the support area as per the upward sloping blue channel which connected the euphoric rise of 2014 is near 7200. On the other hand, red downward sloping channel connects the cycle of correction of 2015. Interestingly the support of this channel is now near 7300 and to add importance to it both of these important trendlines is intersecting near 7250. This gives lot of objectivity and the worst case scenario analysis for the current trend. Existing shorts can ………..

Nifty weekly chart:

Applying channel to leading sector – Bank Nifty: The sector that is leading the fall is Bank Nifty. The daily chart of Bank Nifty shows parallel lines connecting the tops and the lows. We can clearly see that prices are now approaching near the lower trendline of the channel with the support zone lying near 14700 – 15000 mark. We are now close to these levels and this week is going to be crucial. But please understand this doesn’t mean one should start creating long positions at current levels.

Bank Nifty daily chart:

Unless we see a base formation with strong positive close and faster retracement above the last falling segment it is prudent to avoid catching a falling knife and allowing the market to decide its low levels.

The Financial Waves short term update – is flagship product of WSA and it contains advanced technical analysis studies like Elliott wave, Neo wave, Time cycles on Nifty, Bank Nifty, stocks published on daily basis before markets open. You can subscribe to this research report by visiting PricingPage.

Training Workshop:

The most comprehensive training on Elliott Wave, Neo Wave and Time Cycles is here…

Announcing Exclusive course on Time Cycles and Neo Wave – Advanced Elliott wave for Portfolio Creation, Stock Selection & Trading. Get ready for the markets in 2016. Register NOW for this two days training event scheduled on 12^th and 13^th March 2016 in Mumbai. Contact US on helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com or on +91 22 28831358 / +91 9920422202 or Fill the form with your details here and we will get in touch with you: Contact US Form

Enough of blaming China for the selloff!

Indian Equity markets have been correcting post the high made at 9119 in month of March 2015, last year. This high was also made after the slower pace of rally post the election outcome in May 2014.

Shanghai Composite Index (China Equity market) topped out in June 2015 which was almost 4 months after the high made by Nifty. Also developed markets have relatively outperformed India over the entire period and did not show much of price correction but more of time correction.

The easiest way to explain a fall in markets and attribute the losses is to blame Global events as it is most convenient thing but only after the move has happened. I distinctly remember the extreme optimism during the Budget time of 2014 when Crude was already in downtrend and the widespread euphoria was fall in commodity prices will provide upper hand to India and reduce the deficit drastically. However, during that time we came out loud and bold that Global economies are headed towards the Commodity crises and fall in prices also indicate slowdown in demand. It was then in early 2015 that we warned about impending downtrend in India and the extreme optimisim is about to fade out equally fast.

Now we are here and people are looking back and started blaming China for the selloff but for an investor or a trader it is simply providing a comfort value but carries no importance from Investment or trading perspective.

Case in point: It is time to stop finding out reasons for the correction but to use objective techniques that can help us forecasts the future and take the right action in timely manner. We think that the correction that started last year is now in its matured stage and we are now headed for one of the very strong rise that can be witnessed.

Trust me news will change drastically after the rise has happened and might look something like this – “Lower Crude prices help India to reduce the deficit and provide much needed boost. Corporate profits to improve drastically given fall in interest rates and reduced commodity prices. Inflation is within the comfort zone and RBI governor will be accommodative to ensure fast recovery in economy.”

Now coming back to the method we think is an objective way to forecast the future trend – Elliott wave and Time cycles

Nifty daily chart (India) compared to Shanghai Composite (China)

There are certain things that work extremely well in markets but might be difficult to digest. Everything is governed by cycles and so is stock market. There are instances when the turn in prices has happened exactly on the cycle day and we have our records marked on charts to prove its importance. These things are not random and that is why we see Channels, Fibonacci ratios, Elliott wave patterns, et al working again and again and have stood the test of time for providing forecasting ability.

It is time to stop blaming the events or China for that matter and use the objective techniques to forecast the future trend. We are headed for some golden era and yes, I might be off by a few months if it is not immediate but it is worth the chance given the extreme pessimism amongst crowd which is typical during major reversals. Check the news back in August 2013 just before the major rally started and you will find all the logical explanation why it was not the time to enter the markets given the uncertainty of central elections in 2014.

Subscribe now to “The Financial Waves Monthly update” along with “The Financial Waves short term update” to objectively see where we are headed and why we think 2016 is has potential of being one of the strong years. Also understand forecasting is all about probability and the evidences are enough for us to take this stand but one should also understand the risk associated in case lower probable scenario turns out. For subscription options visit Pricing Page

You can equip yourself with the necessary tools by attending the two days workshop on Most advanced training workshop on technical analysis – Time cycles and Neo wave – Advanced Elliott wave for Portfolio creation, Stock selection and Trade setups. Invest NOW for this 2 days training in Mumbai on 12^th and 13^th of March 2016. For registration Contact us at helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com or call us on +91 22 28831358 / +91 9920422202.

Video on Nifty, Bank Nifty using Elliott Wave by Ashish Kyal on CNBC TV18

The above video explains current state of Nifty, Bank Nifty, stock tips over short to medium term horizon. For more details on various research reports and Intraday / Positional ideas visit www.wavesstrategy.com or contact on helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com

Capturing the carnage in Banking stocks!!

The first week of January 2016 was painful for Global Equity Markets wherein Indian Equity Markets lost almost 5% in a week. Banking stocks were the worst hit by the down move. Bank Nifty lost more than 1100 points in 6 trading sessions. We were cautious on the Indian Equities from the end of December 2015 and suggesting shorting opportunity on various stocks through “The Financial Waves Short Term Update”. We were able to capture the fall in Yes Bank and part of the same is shown below:

Yes Bank 60 mins chart: (Anticipated in the morning of 1^st January 2016)

Yes Bank 60 mins chart: (Happened on 7^th January 2016)

(part of research taken from “The Financial Waves Short Term Update” published on 1^st January 2016)

Wave analysis:

“prices have been intact in downward moving channel. As per wave perspective, stock has been forming Complex Correction pattern and intermediate wave y of the same is ongoing. Prices have reached towards channel resistance along with 30 weeks Exponential moving average and hence price action of next few days will be crucial to observe. Stock has given close below prior bars low after 11 trading sessions which is suggesting negativity.”

As shown in 60 mins chart, prices have reversed from the channel resistance along with 61.8% retracement of the prior down move. The down move of last session has also broken upward moving channel. Now move below 710 will provide further confirmation that minor wave b of intermediate wave y completed and next leg on downside in form of minor wave c has started.

In short, Yes Bank has reversed from the crucial channel resistance. Move below 710 will take prices towards 680 level where area of minor wave a is placed.

Happened: Yes Bank moved in lines with our expectation. Post Breaking 710 level prices have made low at 675.70 level on 7^th January 2015 and achieved our target. Bank Nifty is now very close to the low made of 15760 in the month September 2016.So what should be the trading strategy now for Banking stocks?

Subscribe to “The Financial Waves Short Term Update” and get in-depth research on Nifty and 3 stocks where short term trading opportunity exists. For more information visit Pricing Page

Nifty strong selloff: Power of 49 days Time Cycle!

Global Equity Markets has showed sharp fall in current week on the fears of slowdown in growth of China. Today was the 2nd trading session in this week where Shanghai Composite moved lower and closed down with 7% loss. This is the justification for the current selloff in Indian Equity Markets however based on Advanced technical concepts from the last week of December 2015 we were maintaining our cautious stand on Nifty due to slower nature of rally. Along with all this we also use Time cycles to time the market. Timing the market is very important from trading as well as investment perspective. Below we have shown part of research taken from “The Financial Waves Monthly Update” published on 5^th January 2016.

Nifty daily chart – 49 days Topping Cycle and Bollinger Bands

(Part of research taken from “The Financial Waves Monthly Update”)

49 days Time cycle: We have seen bottoming Time cycles working very well but at times it is important to look at the Topping cycle as well. This 49 days Time cycle is shown on Nifty daily chart. We have been using this topping cycle for many years now and it has produced the desired outcome most of the time. As per this important tops are formed every 49 days and we can clearly see the top of August 2015 post which there was severe selloff which was also formed on this cycle day. After 3 months we have seen a fall of more than 150 points on Nifty on 4^th January 2015. This indicates short term bearishness for few days.

Post forming to at 49 days Time cycles, Nifty did not look back and selloff is still ongoing. Now question arises still how much pain is left? Nifty is approaching towards the low of 7550 formed in early part of December 2015. What is next?

Subscribe to “The Financial Waves Monthly Update” which is published now for long term forecast and to know the short to medium term trend subscribe to “The Financial Waves Short Term Update” . For more information visit Pricing Page

Shanghai market crashes another 7%. What to expect next?

Chinese Equity Market Shanghai Composite is in limelight from last few months now. We can see that volatility in Global Equity Markets has increased due to the slowdown and growth issue in China. On 4^th January 2015 Shanghai tumbled 6.9% on back of growth issues. In fact even today there was severe selloff witnessed where market fell by more than 7% which has led to suspension of trading for today. This has been keeping Global Equity Markets on the edge. It is important to understand the overall structure of Shanghai Composite.

In order to know where Shanghai will head itself and what are the crucial levels subscribe to “The Financial Waves Monthly Update” which covers in-depth research on various asset class viz Global market, Nifty, Bank Nifty Currency, Commodity and Mutual funds. Below is the part of the research:

Figure 11: Shanghai Composite weekly chart

As shown in weekly chart, an important top for this market was placed in the year of November 2007 as post that prices showed sharp reversals on downside and flashed its red signals. However 2014 proved to be a year of revival as prices managed to move higher in an impulse fashion which helped the market to head towards the highs of 5178 levels. Looking at the current scenario, prices are showing retracement of the prior up move which started from the lows of 2100 to the highs of 5178. This has surely put a halt to the upside move but one needs to understand that correction do happen in any particular asset and post its completion we might again see the resumption of the ongoing trend.

Case in point: There was no such optimism seen when market showed decent rally from the lows of 2100 to the highs of 5170 which means more than 100% of appreciation in terms of price. Whereas the recent down move has put in too much of pessimism in the mind of people even when Chinese market has protected its lows made in August 2015. For objectively understanding the trend we use Elliott wave technique.

As per Elliott wave perspective, prices completed bigger degree wave III near the highs of 6124 and post that showed 7 years of correction in the form of (A)-(B)-(C).  Wave (C) formed Ending diagonal pattern and post its completion there was sharp reversals seen on upside. This rising segment indicates that cycle degree wave …….. completed its course in mid 2014 and next leg has taken its place in the form of wave ……

Spikes are very important as it forms important highs and lows and break of the same can result into trending move on either side. Such spike was witnessed in this index during August 2015 where prices made a crucial low of …….levels. So as long as this level is protected we can continue to expect range bound action and on upside break above ……. will give us the confirmation that medium term uptrend is resuming again.

In a nutshell, ………….

To know what is next from here in Global markets along with detailed medium term outlook on Nifty and Bank Nifty subscribe to “The Financial waves Monthly update”. Also get access to daily short term research report – “The Financial waves short term update” which covers Nifty and stock on daily basis. It is during such volatile environment objective way of research is most important. Do not miss out on this strong trending move and find out crucial support or resistance levels from Trading to Investment perspective. For subscription options visit the Pricing Page.

Nifty in final leg of down move before the reversal in trend!

Bottom Line: Nifty failed to break 7980 level and reversed on downside sharply losing 170 points. Trend is negative in final leg on downside in form of wave c.

Nifty daily chart:

Nifty 60 mins chart:

Wave analysis:

In the previous update we mentioned that, “Nifty has reached towards inflexion point. Move above 7980 is required to continue the positive trend along with sustainability above 7890 followed by 7835 levels.”

In the last trading session, Nifty had Gap down opening at 7924 level and then selling pressure continued throughout the day. Nifty broke 7890 followed by 7835 level in single trading session only which indicates that trend has reversed on downside.

The selloff was not limited to only Indian markets but has been a global phenomenon. Trading on Chinese index – Shanghai Composite was halted after it crashed by 7%. However, this index is still well above its low made in September 2015. It will be interesting to see if that level is protected while sentiments turn bearish. Next few days of action is going to be crucial.

From last 2 weeks we were citing 7980 as important level. Due to the slower nature of rally we mentioned very early that one leg on downside looks pending. Prices respected our mentioned level and reversed on downside losing 170 points. Such big fall is witnessed after 3 months. Prices have taken out last 7 days prior bar in single day only which indicates weakness over near term.

From sector perspective, carnage was witnessed across the board where Bank Nifty erased the entire gains of Friday’s session and lost more than 2.5%. Along with that Midcap and Smallcap too came under pressure and closed on the negative note with 1.35% and 1.19% respectively. Not a single sector managed to close in green territory. Such synchronized selloff indicates weakness as of now.

As shown in 60 mins chart, post breaking the upward moving black channel, prices did not look back and continued to move lower till the end of session. This down move has retraced the last segment of up move in faster time and has taken out the pivot lows of 7890 followed by 7835 level. So on upside as long as 7890 (as per polarity reversal) followed by 7940 is intact on upside any rallies will be short lived.

As per wave perspective, we have been mentioning the current up move as only wave b of (z) and now wave c of the ongoing Flat correction pattern has started on downside. If this is last stages of selling then the pressure should reduce after 3 days and 7600 – 7650 can act as short term support. In case the fall extends even beyond this range then more bearish stand would be warranted.

In a nutshell, Nifty trend has reversed on downside. One should avoid catching low as of now. 7890 followed by 7940 level will act as resistance and prices can move towards 7650 levels.

Subscribe to “The Financial Waves Short Term Update” which covers Nifty and 3 stocks and “The Financial Waves Trading Update” which covers Nifty along with intraday trading strategy. For more information visit Pricing Page