Budget impact on Indian equity markets!

Budget is about to start and many would be eyeing on the news to determine the trend of the market. 

However, we believe that event can result into short term volatility and random movements rather than driving the trend. The trend whether up or down will eventually resume irrespective of the news outcome. People will then try to fit in the logic to justify the movement of the market based on theBudget outcome! A sharp reaction on Thursday on downside after the Railway Budget resulted into news that the Budget did not show any bold steps and so equity markets reacted lower. But on Friday Nifty was up by more than 150 points thereby erasing the loss of Railway Budget day and entering into the positive side. The news following it will be Economic survey painted rosy picture for future.

Today, if equity markets move lower even after strong Budget following is the news you will read in morning papers: “Budget expectations were already discounted in the rally and expectations were high for bolder steps”. On the other hand a positive close on markets will result into modification of news as “Budget lives upto the expectations with clear roadmap ahead!”. We have no intention to discredit this but please understand the news outcome will change based on market movements rather than markets moving based on the news. So the leading factor here is the equity market!

Now how do we look at the simple methods that help to understand the clear direction and levels for Nifty?

Below is the chart of Nifty showing only channels. Elliott wave counts are removed from here but showed in actual morning research report.

Nifty daily chart:

The below research is picked up from today’s morning “The Financial Waves short term update”that has shown clear path for Nifty ahead of Budget and the crucial levels. Subscribe now to look at this important path.

Budget day is finally here with huge expectations from across the industry and everyone is keeping an eye if Modi government can come out with a Big bang! Anything short of expectations can result into serious capitulation and so one needs to trade cautiously especially after the rise of yesterday. On most of the occasions Budget has acted as a reversal day and closing becomes very crucial. Also we can expect a movement in the range of 2.5% to 4% between highs to lows. This gives a room of around 220 to 350 points movement on Nifty on intraday basis between highs and lows. Also many times the trend is seen about 30 mins to an hour after the Budget is over. Based on this and looking at the pattern on Nifty we have shown the path that prices can probably follow.

Nifty has been moving in period of contraction over past few weeks. With the start of event this contraction can now change to expansion and can follow a path as shown above (shown in today’s morning actual report). The sharp reversal on upside has opened up the possibility that the entire pattern is forming as a Flat corrective with wave (c) forming a wedge shaped Ending Diagonal pattern. This is one of the probable scenarios. Also as the event can produce a movement of nearly 220 to 350 points on intraday this can be a possibility.

 In short, trade cautiously on the Budget day amidst the high expectations. Important levels for a clear trend to emerge will be either above 9040 or below 8600. As long as these levels are intact we can expect oscillation between ………. and ……….. levels as per the path shown (in actual report)!

Subscribe now this daily research report and get insights into crucial levels that can provide good trading opportunity today during BUDGET! For subscription option visit the Pricing Page on www.wavesstrategy.com and select “The Financial Waves short term update” and we will deliver the report immediately.

Attend the two days training session on Mastering Elliott – Neo wave along with Time cyclesshown on more than 100 charts on 14^th and 15^th March in Mumbai. For more details write to us at helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com or call on +91 22 28831358 / +91 9920422202

How Hurst Cycle along with Neo Wave can help in forecasting the pattern?

J.M.Hurst suggested that there are certain standard cycles which are universal and can be applied on any asset classes. 

Many cycle analysts often complain that cycles vanish without giving prior indication. The major reason being interaction of different cycles of varying magnitude.

The subject might look complicated but it is no different than Elliott wave principle. The major difference is Hurst Cycle analysis helps us to predict time and Elliott wave focuses more on price. This element of time can help us to forecast the Elliott wave pattern that can form in future. If you understand the logic at one level of degree, identifying and analyzing the cycles at higher or lower degree becomes more mechanical and easy.

As shown in below chart we have applied different cycle on Nifty Daily chart along with Neo Wave which helped us to predict the probable future path. The important part of Hurst Cycle is that if you know that major as well as smaller degree cycles are citing towards probable bottom or top then you can save yourself from making wrong trade. In market “when not to trade is the key to success”.

Anticipated: With the help of this Hurst cycle along with Advanced Elliott wave (Neo Wave) we expected that the rally started from 6650 in the month of May 2014 is probably making Diametric pattern. This pattern consists of 7 legs (a-b-c-d-e-f-g). Near the zone of 7600-7550 in the start of August 2014 we were expecting that wave d of Diametric pattern should complete where our Bottoming cycle as per Hurst cycle was due. As per these counts there was a high probability that Indian Market should resume upward journey towards new life time highs. Price as well as time confirmation clears the chaos and gives higher forecasting ability.

See in the below chart how we have applied Hurst Time cycle along with Neo Wave.

Nifty daily chart (Applying Neo wave and Hurst Time cycles)

Nifty daily chart (Happened so far)

So what next from here on?

Join US for the 2 days training workshop to be held on 14^th & 15^th March 2015 in Mumbai on the most advanced concepts of Technical analysis - Neo wave (Advanced Elliott wave) combined together with J.M.Hurst Time cycles – a powerful tool to forecasts Elliott wave patterns using Time cycles – A complete different way to look at market behavior, forecasting and trading!!! This training session for the first time will focus on more than 100 different practical charts applied across the asset class.

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Where and when is the course?

The training is at Hotel Grand Sarovar Premiere, Goregoan, Mumbai on 14^th & 15^th March 2015. This belongs to 5 star category having chain of international hotels and the fees are including Tea / Coffee and Lunch.

Registration Fee:

The charges for the Training are Rs. 39900 + 12.36% Service tax. Registration is on first come first basis as there are limited seats.This includes 1 week of FREE Elliott wave video before the training session itself along with 12 months of FREE Monthly Research reports that is worth 12,000 /-

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Equity Trading Strategy before Budget

Equity Trading Strategy before Budget! For subscription to daily research reports using Elliott wave and applied technical analysis along with Time cycles visit www.wavesstrategy.com or Contact us at helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com or on +91 22 28831358 / +91 9920422202

Nifty Elliott wave, Bollinger Bands®, MACD Trading Strategy before Budget!

Bottom Line: Nifty failed to close above 8900 or below 8800 and continued to move in a range. Break of either levels awaited for clear trend to emerge!

The below research was published today morning before equity markets opened in "The Financial Waves short term update" by Waves Strategy Advisors

Nifty daily chart:

Nifty 60 mins chart:

Elliott Wave Analysis:

Nifty had a range bound movement in previous week with prices touching the high of 8913 and low of 8793. There is a weekly Doji bar formation and a break of the range is important for clear direction ahead. Within this range IT stocks showed some outperformance and Bank Nifty failed to show any strong bounce back. Nifty has retraced around 80% of the previous down move whereas on other hand Bank Nifty which was leading the rally retraced only 50% of the entire down move. Also the bounce back in Bank Nifty is in overlapping formation so far which is not a good sign from medium term perspective. From weekly perspective, decisive break above 8913 will resume the positive trend whereas close below 8790 can result into short term downside reversal.

The recent up move which started in form of wave (c) of e from 8600 levels has so far taken 6 trading days. So a faster move back below 8600 in less than 6 days will indicate medium term reversal to downside. This will break the pivot level in lesser amount of time the up move took to form. Short term moving average of 20 days is also acting as an important proxy for trend. The support as per this average is also near 8600 levels.  

The movement of past few days has been exactly within the Bollinger Bands as shown on hourly chart. Prices have been moving sharply within the range but only to take support near the lower and upper areas of the Bollinger Bands. When on Thursday there was a strong move towards 8913 we expected a break on upside. However, prices reversed the very next day back towards 8800 support area. So now it is prudent to wait for an hourly close above 8913 or below 8790 for confirmation of the break of the band and start of the trend in that direction.

Range bound action has kept both Flat pattern and Triangle pattern possibility open. As mentioned above a faster reversal below 8600 will confirm truncation of wave (c) of e at the highs whereas on other side slower movement from here will indicate wave (d) of e is forming within a triangle pattern.

In short, Nifty is currently moving in a range but a clear trend should emerge on break of mentioned levels in this week. Leading sectors have failed to show any upside momentum which is a cautious sign and close below 8790 will result into short term downside reversal. Volatility can be high in current week ahead of Budget!

Attend the most comprehensive training on "Mastering Elliott wave - Neo wave with different Time cycle methods applied on more than 100 charts" The training is scheduled on 14th & 15th March in Mumbai at Grand Sarovar Hotel. For registration contact us at helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com or call on +91 22 28831358 / +91 9920422202

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Nifty Elliott – Neo wave double corrective post pattern implications and two stage confirmation!

Elliott wave defines different patterns. There are standard corrections namely Zigzag, Flat and Triangle. 

Apart from this there are complex corrective patterns that combine standard corrections with an intervening X waves and forms double Zigzag, Triple Zigzag, Double Flat, Triple Flat, Double / Triple combinations, etc. We do not only apply basic Elliott wave but apply  Advanced concepts of Elliott wave known as Neo wave There are various patterns defined in Neo wave apart from mentioned above. These new patterns are Diametric, Extracting Triangle, Neutral Triangle, wave 5 extension terminal pattern. These new patterns as per Neo wave gives a complete different perspective to Elliott wave and we take a step ahead and combine this entire studies along with Time cycles to get important turning junctures.

Now let us analyze how these patterns practically helped us to predict the movement on Nifty. Below is part of the research published in daily research report “The Financial Waves short term update”

On February 13^th 2015, we showed the following chart when Nifty was trading near 8710 levels:

Nifty 60 mins chart (as shown on 13^th February 2015 morning)

Happened:  

As per research published on 13^th February morning before markets opened:

Nifty two stage confirmations as per Neo wave: The break of the 0-b trendline now increases the odds that the entire downside correction from 8996 to 8470 might have completed and this can be the next leg on upside which might lead towards the previous highs.

In short, given the break above 8645 followed by 8700 levels the trend for Nifty is positive with the support of 8600 on downside. At times it is prudent to be quick in changing the stand when markets do not follow the time rules along with price.So a move back above 8645 and 8700 indicates that uptrend might be resuming. On upside further move above 8840 will provide second stage confirmation.

Double corrective post pattern implications: Neo wave –Advance Elliott wave suggests that a double corrective pattern has a post pattern implication of nearly 76.4% to 80%. This means that by analyzing the type of correction we can predict the strength of next trend. This gave the target zone of 8880 to 8900 levels.

Happened: Nifty moved higher and touched the level of 8900 on intraday movement today. Prices reversed back from there and are now trading near 8830 levels. This clearly shows how well the levels are respected and at times even short term forecasting can be done with very high accuracy. However, during middle of correction the predictability reduces. It is still very vital information to accordingly position size the trades.

Isn’t it a thrilling experience to see markets moving amidst all the events exactly as per the rules and certain defined patterns?This is the power you can get when you learn about Neo wave which is advanced concepts of Elliott wave and do the forecasting yourself. To learn about this concept of technical analysis attend the two days workshop on Mastering Elliott wave with different Time cycles methods. This is the most exhaustive training on advanced concepts ever conducted. The training is scheduled on 14^th and 15^th March 2015 in Mumbai combined with more than 100 practical charts! For more information contact us at  helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com or call us on +91 22 28831358 / +91 9920422202.

Analyzing Gold: Text book Triple complex corrective Elliott wave pattern!

Elliott wave has been one of the important advanced technical analysis tool we use to determine the direction of an asset. 

This theory can applied on freely traded assets provided it is highly tradable and liquid. We all know Gold is one of the most traded asset and Elliott wave patterns work very well even though in complex formation.

Now below is the example of Triple correction pattern. This pattern tends to be channelized with very rhythmic movement. Also each correction is labeled as a-b-c which is followed by wave x and then the other standard correction. There can be maximum of three correction and two “x” waves. Now look at below chart of Gold and try to understand where we stand from maturity of downtrend!

This chart of Gold is shown in daily commodity research report “The Commodity waves”

Gold 60 mins April Contract chart:

Wave Analysis (published today morning before commodity markets opened)

Comex Gold has continued to move lower from $1300 levels and not a single bar has managed to close above the prior bar’s high.We have observed that this basic technique works very well in Gold during a trending move. So unless we see a close above prior bar high which is currently at …. the trend for Comex Gold will continue to be negative.

Over here in MCX Gold, the selloff has continued within the channel. We have been constantly mentioning about Gold underperformance as an investment class in our monthly updates. Nevertheless, short to medium term trend can reverse back on upside. However, over short term there is no positive confirmation and move above 27200 will be important for positivity which will break the short term downward moving channel.

Gold Triple correction Elliott wave pattern -As shown on hourly chart, prices are moving in complex corrective fashion and each of the leg have been equal. This is a typical characteristic of triple corrections and currently minor wave (a) is ongoing of 3^rd correction. As mentioned earlier move above 26990 will indicate wave (b) on upside towards the channel at 27100 has started. Unless that happens avoid …….

In short, ………

Subscribe now to “The Commodity Waves” and trade objectively using systematic method rather than taking impulsive decision which is responsible for majority of losses. Attend the two days training workshop on Advanced Elliott wave – Neo wave and its combination with varied Time cycles methods. This is one of the most comprehensive trading courses that you can get using Advanced technical analysis! Contact US on helpdesk@wavesstrategy.comor on +91 22 28831358 / +91 9920422202 for more details or visit www.wavesstrategy.com

Elliott wave Video update: Why next 5 days is going to be very crucial for Nifty?

Elliott wave Video update: Why next 5 days is going to be very crucial for Nifty?







For subscription to various research reports along with detailed explanation on Elliott wave, Time cycles and other advanced Technical analysis tools visit www.wavesstrategy.com 

Nifty Candlesticks, Elliott wave, Channels, Time cycles, RSI all predicted this down move..See yourself!

Selloff in Nifty even before Delhi Election exit polls.

Now the logical reasoning will be Delhi elections resulted into selloff in equity markets but the top was formed way before the voting day itself!

Following is the research published daily before equity markets opened in “The Financial Waves short term update” For subscription options visit Pricing Page.

See yourself the logical reasoning we had for markets to turn and the way it has been moving precisely as per the Elliott wave pattern that we forecasted!

Following is the chart shown on 27^th January 2015 in daily research report “The Financial Waves short term update”

Nifty 60 mins chart:

As per triangle rule prices can travel towards 100% to 125% of widest leg which gives an upside target zone of 8880 to maximum 9040.

Happened: Nifty made a top at 8996 very close to the average we have been expecting all the while on 30^th January 2015

Nifty 60 mins chart: - Anticipated on 2^nd February

Anticipated on 2^nd February 2015:

49 days Time cycle which has warned us that a turn is near and the up move is in matured stage. Many would compare this fall with that of 6^th January but the major difference being that this fall has happened from the channel resistance after strong euphoria near the Time cycle top with VIX index reaching near 20 levels from lows of 13 along with prior up move.

In short, break of 8795 has turned the bias negative on Indian markets. Follow-up action of 2 days will be very crucial from here. Failure to show any meaningful bounce with sustained pressure below Friday’s low at 8775 followed by 8690 will indicate a very important top is in place atleast for next few months. It is time to stay away from the crowd and follow the objective techniques rather than getting carried away with unrealistic targets.

Happened: We have been constantly warning our subscribers to stay alert and not get carried away in the euphoria. The Elliott wave pattern has worked precisely to the point so far!

Nifty 60 mins chart: Anticipated today morning before equity markets opened

Happened:

Wave Analysis: In today’s morning research report we mentioned the following:

Anticipated in today’s morning research report: In previous update we mentioned that “In short, trend for Nifty continues to be negative unless we see a close above prior bar’s high. Intraday volatility can now subside and a strong trending move is due to emerge. Decisive break below Bollinger band will provide strong negative confirmation.”

Nifty continued to form red bar throughout the week and closed at not only the day’s low but also week’s low. Infact, on the weekly basis we can see a very strong bearish Evening candlestick pattern. This is three candles pattern and usually indicates short term reversal especially when it occurs from the important Fibonacci and Channel resistance area….

Now, Delhi Election exit polls are suggesting a clear victory by AAP party. This will become clearer tomorrow on the counting day but markets are going to discount it today in anticipation. This does not directly impact the ruling government BJP but the rally has been more driven by positive euphoria rather than rationality. Also the Banking stocks have already started taking a beating after a few banks reported poor than expected results both in Private sector and PSU space. Case in point is if the two major factors responsible for driving markets toward 9000 mark are changing then there has to be some impact and change in sentiments atleast over short term.

Nifty hourly chart clearly shows…..(explained in actual report) In short, we continue to think that prices are now in wave …or wave ….. and trend will remain negative unless we see a close above 8760. Sharp move towards 8450 can be expected if this is indeed wave ……. on downside which will also confirm a bigger degree top atleast for few months is formed!

Happened: Nifty moved sharply lower and already touched the lows of 8516 coming close to the first target level of 8450

Subscribe NOW to this daily research report and trust me it is worth the investment that one can make at no risk. Trade objectively using these techniques by simply following it in “The Financial Waves short term update”daily research report. Visit www.wavesstrategy.com for subscription options.

Selloff in Nifty continues even before Delhi Election exit polls - Impact on markets

Selloff in Nifty continues even before Delhi Election exit polls - Impact on markets!

Following is the research published today morning before equity markets opened by Waves Strategy Advisors. For subscription options visit www.wavesstrategy.com

Nifty continued to move with high intraday volatility but managing to form lower highs and lower lows so far!

Nifty daily chart:

 

Announcements:

“The Financial Waves Monthly Update” is now published. The current research focuses on Nifty outlook applying Elliott wave and Neo wave. Understanding the different types of reactive or trend following methods – Channels, Bar technique, Candlesticks, Moving averages, Bollinger Bands, Volumes and RSI.  Bank Nifty a leading sector is now under-performing. Outlook on BSE Smallcap Index.BEL long term pick, EURUSD path ahead, Why Comex Gold is at interesting juncture and Russian Stock market and impact of crude on its economy. Subscribe to “The Financial Waves Monthly update” by visiting http://wavesstrategy.com/index.php/store.html and see yourself the long term forecasts and world markets at a glance.

Nifty 60 mins chart: Today morning before markets opened

Happened by closing -

Wave Analysis:

In previous update we mentioned that “In short, trend for Nifty continues to be negative unless we see a close above prior bar’s high. Intraday volatility can now subside and a strong trending move is due to emerge. Decisive break below Bollinger band will provide strong negative confirmation.”

In the morning research report we published the following and expected the down move to continue:

Nifty continued to form red bar throughout the week and closed at not only the day’s low but also week’s low. Infact, on the weekly basis we can see a very strong bearish Evening candlestick pattern. This is three candles pattern and usually indicates short term reversal especially when it occurs from the important Fibonacci and Channel resistance area. The reversal in last week happened from the channel resistance and the Target zone which we have been already expecting. This increases the significance of the Evening star pattern. This pattern will carry weightage on break below the low of the third candle which is at 8645. Again, this is on a weekly basis and so if the current week closes below 8645 i.e. by end of Friday it will confirm this bearish pattern further.

Now, Delhi Election exit polls are suggesting a clear victory by AAP party. This will become clearer tomorrow on the counting day but markets are going to discount it today in anticipation. This does not directly impact the ruling government BJP but the rally has been more driven by positive euphoria rather than rationality. Also the Banking stocks have already started taking a beating after a few banks reported poor than expected results both in Private sector and PSU space. Case in point is if the two major factors responsible for driving markets toward 9000 mark are changing then there has to be some impact and change in sentiments atleast over short term.

Now coming back to the Nifty hourly chart, we can clearly see that prices have so far not generated downside momentum but has closed below the previous wave x zone at 8695. Now the downside momentum should generate and trend can be very sharp. On upside 8760 which is near the 15 periods Exponential Moving average can be used as trailing stop preferably on closing basis given the sharp intraday volatility over past few days. Also event can result into rise in volatility and one should have the strategy ready before the market opens to avoid impulsive reaction.

A very important observation is that each of the up move post May 2014 – after the Lok-Sabha elections has been retraced by 76.4%. This has been one of the major factors that has also indicated the up move is not strong but corrective wave and if the similar pattern is followed now as well then we should see a retracement towards 8220 – 8290 zone.

In short, we continue to think that prices are now in wave c or wave iii and trend will remain negative unless we see a close above 8760. Sharp move towards 8450 can be expected if this is indeed wave iii on downside which will also confirm a bigger degree top atleast for few months is formed!

Happened: Nifty moved sharply lower exactly as expected and continued the selloff. Prices have been moving down from the highs of 8996 exactly as we have been expecting in our daily research report.

For subscription options to this daily research report "The Financial Waves Short term update" visit www.wavesstrategy.com

Elliott - Neo wave, Time cycles, various indicators applied on more than 100 charts!

For first time ever Elliott - Neo wave, Time cycles, various indicators applied on more than 100 charts in most comprehensive training for more than 22 hours!

Comprehensive course on Mastering Elliott Wave – Neo Wave along with Time Cycles, Channels, Fibonaaci, RSI, etc. This means application of each and every theory that we have been practicing for so many years are going to be revealed that too on more than 100 different CHARTS.

Before the course? You will be given access to more than 6 hours of basic Elliott wave video link so that the actual session directly starts from Advanced stage and everyone is at similar level of understanding!

What more? At the end of the course you will also get access to one year of free Monthly research reports which is otherwise worth INR 12,000! 

For first  time ever Mr. Ashish Kyal, CMT would be sharing more than100 of his charts using different  Technical Indicators and methods. The most practical training in field of Advanced technical analysis you can come across.

Ashish Kyal,CMT is  passionate about charts and applying different techniques of Advanced Elliott Wave. He loves to share his experience on applying various Techniques, Indicators etc and combining them with Wave theory and most importantly with TIME CYCLES....

Indian Markets are at very crucial juncture now. To enter into such a market can be risky at times if not done with proper analysis. It is prudent to understand which indicators to be applied during different phases of Elliott wave cycles!

Again, the training is worth your investments, see below why -

• Elliott Wave - 6 hours Video even before attending the training itself
• The most important  Technical Analysis tools applied frequently in markets along with Neo wave
• Application of these various techniques on more than 100 different charts for first time ever!
• Using different Time cycle methods like Hurst Time cycles to forecast the pattern under formation
• Techniques on Indicators like Bollinger Bands, Moving averages should be applied as per Market Dynamics
• One Year of Monthly Research report Free worth Rs. 12000/-
• Even after the session you can still get in touch for any queries or to clarify doubts anytime in entire month. 

Where and when is the course?
The training is Mumbai on 14^th-15^th March 2015 right from 9 am to 5 pm (including Tea & snacks, Lunch). This means more than 22 hours of training (including video link before the training itself)

Registration Fee: 

The charges for the Training is Rs. 39900+ 12.36% Service tax

Registration is on first come first basis as there are limited seats.

How to Enroll?
To register for the training using either Credit Card or Netbanking visit http://wavesstrategy.com/payment/ and mention Product as “Training” and period as “1”.
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