Successful trading also requires 10 power points or framework!

Mr. Modi has prepared 10 power points and has emphasized on governance as most important followed by focus on delivery and implementation. 

The planning and execution both are important aspects of any business or policy decisions.

Trading in stock market should be no different than preparing a 10 points agenda or planning the trade. It should be treated no different than any other business. If you want to be successful in trading prepare a 10 power points today which will take care of Trading strategy, Money management, Risk Management, Entry method, Exit strategy, Instrument type – Cash / Futures / Options, Mental setup etc. Each of these points is extremely crucial and should be well thought before entering a trade.

People think trading is simple because execution is easy but it takes lot of time, efforts, mental energy to become a successful trader. We are discussing 1 point from the 10 power points in below article. Technical analysis application is all about understanding the probabilities of market.

Nifty Elliott wave patterns, Channels, Moving averages, MACD all in one report!!!

Nifty daily chart:

The above chart shows confluence of Elliott wave counts, Channels, Moving averages, Indicators.

In today’s morning report we mentioned the following:

Nifty opened near 7315 level with a Gap down of nearly 20 points and later closed down by almost 95 points after the weak start by IT major Infosys. Infosys shares fell nearly 250 points and lost nearly 8% by closing. It seems Mr. Murthy’s return is not helping shareholder and this is for 2^nd time when the stock has tanked by nearly 8% in single day after he has re-joined. The investors and FIIs will be nervous seeing such behavior in a blue chip stock. Infosys has also closed below the important support of 3000 which was previously very strong resistance. If the stock price cannot move back above 3000 over next 2 to 3 days it will indicate weakness in IT sector and this time if major market reverses there will not be any defensive sector which will limit the selloff as the Pharma and FMCG sectors are also looking weak.

Nifty as expected on expiry day did result into strong movement and as soon as the previous pivotal level of 7270 was broken the selling pressure intensified and the index closed near the day’s low at 7235 levels. The selloff was witnessed across the board with almost all the sectors closing in red including the outperforming Midcap and Smallcap sectors. It will be crucial to observe if the selling pressure can intensify over next 2 to 3 days across the board or if a few sectors again start showing some outperformance.

As shown on the daily chart, the black trendline worked very well as we have been expecting and prices constantly failed to close above it. Nifty has now arrived near the blue trendline support and any move below 7200 will bring it back within the blue channel opening up further downside possibilities. For medium term trend to turn negative, break of ……….. will be very important.

As shown on 60 mins & 10 chart,….. (shown in actual report)

To know how we are reading all of the above indicators across the time frames right from daily to 60 mins to 10 mins chart on Nifty & stocks and which levels will decide reversal in the medium term trend subscribe to “The Financial Waves short term update” which provides the important aspect of technical analysis which forms an important point in the 10 points framework of Successful Trading!. For subscription option visit http://www.wavesstrategy.com/index.php/store.html

Is it right time to invest in PSU Banks like Bank of Baroda?

PSU Banks have been the darlings in the recent run up of Indian equity markets. 

The trend has been sharp and fast on upside during the run up to the election period. However, post 16^th May the movements have become subdued and prices have been consolidating. During this period many of the retail investors are planning to invest in stocks as the major event is now over.

Please understand that stock markets are forward looking and discounting the future. Investing now might not be a perfect time from few months horizon. One has to understand the risk associated with investments and there is never a 1 way road. Investments if not done prudently can also result into huge losses and ask someone who has invested money near the top of 2008

Many of the stocks have lost more than 50% of the value from the highs and the media is talking about recent run up. Majority of the Midcap and Smallcap stocks are still lying at the dirt value with only a few making new life time highs which is catching the attention.

Case in point: Even from investment perspective there has to be a systematic way and one should do it with stoplosses in place. Technical analysis and Elliott wave theory help us to understand the maturity of trend and if the next big leg has started on upside with crucial stop loss levels.

Bank of Baroda Weekly chart:

The above chart is of Bank of Baroda published in today’s morning research report. The following is a part of that research report.

Wave Analysis:

PSU Banks are the one which has performed well in the recent rally on upside. However, post election, sell off was witnessed from the higher levels which suggest pause in an uptrend. This sell off has brought many of the Banks at the pivot support levels. Now, break of this level will suggest more weakness going ahead. We have picked up Bank of Baroda.

Medium to Long Term Perspective: As shown in Weekly chart, Looking at the up move from 500 to 1000, there is a higher probability next leg on upside has started. As per Elliott wave perspective, primary wave (1) completed at 1050 by end of 2010. Since then, prices were correcting on downside in form of primary wave (2) in Complex corrective pattern (W-X-Y-X-Z). The sharp move above the downward moving channel is increasing the odd that primary wave (3) has started on upside. We will get more clarity for the same when prices move above 1050 levels. This is the view as per medium to long term perspective. On the other side, if it is indeed new leg on upside, then downside correction should not retrace more than 61.8% of entire up move from 500 to 1000, which is coming near 700levels.Break of this level will indicate that correction which started from 2011 is still ongoing. From short term trading perspective, it is important to ………….

So from Long term investment perspective 700 becomes a very crucial Stop level. However, at times it is important to observe the short term Elliott wave counts as well to get better entry points. In today’s morning research report we have mentioned also about the short term trend ofBank of Baroda.

Subscribe NOW and see yourself the crucial levels for Nifty and the trend for other stocks and indices in this daily research report.For subscription options visit http://www.wavesstrategy.com/index.php/store.html

Ashish Kyal, CMTis also conducting a 2 days training programon How to trade systematically and High probable trade setups at Hotel Grand Sarovar, Mumbai. You can learn yourself on practical way of trading and investing using Elliott wave and combining other important technical indicators all together. For more information visit http://www.wavesstrategy.com/index.php/training-on-elliott-wave-high-probable-trade-setups.html

Bank Nifty near important juncture and turning points!

Bank Nifty has shown strong outperformance in recent rally. The below chart shows Elliott wave counts on daily and 60 mins chart.

Bank Nifty Daily chart: 

Bank Nifty 60 mins chart:

           Elliott Wave Analysis:

Bank Nifty has shown strong performance in recent rally of Indian market. On the election result day, prices made a high at 15742 and since then it is confined within the tight range.

As shown in Daily chart, same as Nifty, the rally started from the level of 10000 looks corrective in nature. As per bigger degree wave counts, in the month of September 2013, prices completed intermediate wave A at the level of 8400 and since then it is moving higher in form of intermediate wave B which is in double correction pattern (a-b-c-x-a-b-c).Internal structure of the same suggest that minor wave b of second standard correction completed at 13000 and ongoing move is in form of minor wave c. This wave c is struggling exactly near the level where 100 % of wave a is placed. This is increasing the odd for corrective up move rather than impulsive.

As shown in 60 mins chart, minute wave iii of minor wave c completed at 15750 levels and since then range bound movement is ongoing due to which it is not clear whether minute wave v truncated at 15550 or still wave iv is ongoing. Now, 14800 and 15750 are two important levels which will decide the next trend.

In short, any sharp move below 14800 will suggest that downside trend has started and move towards 14000 can be possible where next support is placed. Further move below this level over medium term will suggest that entire upside correction which started from September 2013, in form of intermediate wave B completed and next trend on downside has started in the form of intermediate wave C. However, any move above 15750 will suggest wave v is still ongoing and this rally can extend further.

Today's morning research report "The Financial Waves short term update" covered views on Nifty, NSE Midcap and BHEL in addition to above Bank Nifty analysis. Subscribe to this research and see yourself why Indian markets are nearing important turning points. Visit http://www.wavesstrategy.com/index.php/store.html

Nifty: Is this distribution pattern post Elections or time for fresh investments?

Elections have been a major event over past many weeks or rather months. The major rally in Indian markets started from 5118 level in September 2013. 

The high was made at 7564 levels on 16^th May 2014 on the Election results announcement.  Since then prices have failed to take out either the high or the lows of that day and moving in a range bound movement. Spikes have very high importance for us as they decide the major support and resistance levels.

Is it time to look for fresh investments?

Many investors were waiting for elections to get over to enter into the markets in expectations that the volatility will come down post the event. However, one should understand that stock markets are constantly discounting the future and are forward looking. The news outcome or results announcement by corporate are for the past but markets are discounting the future. So there is time displacement. Have you ever wondered when better than expected quarterly results are announced why does prices of the stock still falls or corrects on downside? The exact reason is explained above.

It is therefore necessary to use objective techniques to see the future path of stock market. Below is the excerpt from “The Financial Waves short term update” published on 26^th May morning

Nifty 10 mins chart: Published on 26^th May before market opened    

Happened: On 26^th May by 2:30 PM touching the high at 7500

On 26^th May morning research report we mentioned the following:

Nifty very short term chart is shown above which is reflecting the internal wave structure. The move on upside on 16^th May was wave a and post that prices corrected the sharp up move in form of wave b which formed a triangle. Yesterday we started the uptrend again in form of wave c and currently prices are in wave iii of this wave c. The momentum should slowly subside now which is a typical characteristic of c waves in a Flat correction…..a normal impulse will result in a move towards 7460where wave iii will be equal to 1.618 * wave i.

Happened: Nifty made a high above 7460 touched 7500 levels and reversed sharply lower. The intraday movement was of nearly 235 points. However, such spiky movement provided more important clues to the overall trend of the market.

Today morning we published the following:

Importance of Spikes:The sharp movements make very crucial support and resistance levels. As mentioned earlier the high made at 7564 on 16^th May which is the election result day is still not taken out and also the low made at 7130 made on same day is intact. Yesterday’s spike was within this range and gave other levels of 7504 and 7270 which will be important. Please understand this range is well within the prior spike so for strong reversal break of …………followed by ………..will be crucial.

In short, Nifty has met our minimum requirement on upside… Any move back above 7430 will result sideways action to continue for few more days between 7564 and 7130 levels that looks like distribution rather than accumulation at higher levels!

So see yourself if Markets are forming a distribution pattern is it right time to invest? The patterns are clear, indicators are suggesting momentum is slowing down but volumes are still heavy – a classical sign of distribution. So which are the crucial levels that will confirm the reversal of trend?

Know for yourself by subscribing to the daily research report “The Financial Waves short term update”a very different perspective to markets using Advanced technical analysis on Nifty and 3 different stocks. Subscribe by visiting http://www.wavesstrategy.com/index.php/store.htmland get your copy of daily report directly to your email id. The report is written by Ashish Kyal, CMT and he shares his insights and years of experience on Elliott wave through it!

USDINR near strong reversal as per channeling technique!

Bottom Line: USDINR trading at crucial levels with 58 as crucial level on downside. Move above 60 will confirm reversal!

USDINR Weekly chart spot:

            USDINR 30 mins chart spot:

Wave Analysis:

For USDINR, in the last update we mentioned that, “current down move can continue towards 58 level where black channel support is placed. Break below this level will infuse selling pressure. On upside 58.60 followed by 58.90 will act as a important hurdle for USDINR”

USDINR has arrived at crucial support zone of 58 which is the important channel support along with 61.8% retracement of the entire up move from 51.20 levels to the highs of near 69. This level of 51.20 was seen in October 2012 and this pair touched 69 in August 2013. Indian currency along with many Asian currencies was looked upon as near crisis similar to that seen in 1997. However, many were surprised on dramatic reversal from 69 but from Elliott wave perspective the high was exactly near 161.8% of previous move which confirmed completion of wave 3 of primary degree and wave iv is ongoing since many months now. USDINR has also arrived near very important channel support which is valid since 2012 onwards and can be clearly seen from the above weekly chart. As of now prices have not confirmed the reversal & 58 is the crucial level and should not be ignored. In case Rupee continues to appreciate and moves further towards 57 levels than we will revisit the counts but for now it is time to be alert.

As shown on weekly chart, in Friday’s trading session this currency pair was unable to take out previous day’s low and touched intraday high at 58.55 level.The reading on RSI is exactly near 30. This is the time when one should get cautious in case major reversal across asset class happens.

As shown on 60 mins chart, prices have been getting resistance of blue channel which was earlier acting as support. This is as per polarity rule of technical analysis. Now,on upside 58.60 followed by 58.90 will act as an important resistance.As per wave perspective, prices have been moving lower in minor wave c of intermediate wave y which has arrived at matured stage as RSI exhibits positive divergence. But, as long as we do not get price confirmation trend remains on downside.

In short, for USDINR our view is cautious, where price action near 58 will be crucial. On upside move above 60 will confirm medium term reversal. Over short term 58 – 57.90 should act as important support!

To ride the next wave in USDINR, subscribe to “The Forex Waves Short Term Update” which provides important reversal points and projections over short to medium term. For more information, visit http://www.wavesstrategy.com/index.php/store.html

Training on Elliott wave - High Probable Trade setups!

Training on Elliott wave - High probable trade setups in Mumbai on 12th & 13th July 2014

Learn practical application of Elliott Wave- High probable trade setups from the experience of Ashish Kyal,CMT

The video explains current state of Indian market and how forecasting can be done using Elliott wave, Channels, Patterns. Attend the 2 days training on Elliott wave in combination with various indicators to form an integrated Technical Analysis to be held on 12th & 13th July 2014 in Mumbai.

Does any one of the following happen to you?                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

§  You buy stock on the basis of good news or better than expected result and price of the stock still keeps falling after you take the long position?

§  Why does market moves in your favor but only after hitting your stoploss?

§  You are always out of the market during best of the trends!

If your answer to any one of the above question is YES, then you belong among 80% of crowd that faces similar situations every day.

One of the most common requests we get from subscribers is that can you teach me how to look at a chart and find opportunities for myself?           

Our trading course on Elliott Wave will teach you how to identify and trade those opportunities.

Whether you are Intraday or Positional trader or investor investing in Stocks, Commodities or Forex, futures or options – you get a practical trading education that you can apply immediately.

It is plausible to forecast freely traded markets with high accuracy but provided you have the understanding of necessary technical tools.

SCOPE

The training is ideal for those who want to analyze and understand Equity / Commodity / Forex markets in detail. Traders or investors who want to learn on how to build their investment portfolios or do trading for living. The course is designed for anyone and everyone keen to learn systematic way of trading using scientific approach. The only pre-requisite is passion for learning objective method of trading.

OBJECTIVE

The two day training on Elliott wave will focus on following aspects of Technical analysis:

§  Increase proficiency in the use of Basic and Advanced Technical Analysis

§  Project Price, Time targets using Fibonacci and Elliott wave

§  Understand Equity, Commodity, Currency and Global Markets cycles

§  Inter-market analysis and how world markets are linked together

§  Form your own trading strategies using proper risk management strategies

§  Have a thrilling experience of seeing market turns, sometimes exactly to the point of projections

§  Detailed analysis of past and predicting future of markets

            §  Simple and direct methods for Entry and Exit.

            §  Setting up Stop loss & Targets for proper trade setups

WHO SHOULD ATTEND?

§  Members of Equity, Commodity, Currency exchanges

§  Brokers / Traders / Dealers

§  Research analysts in Equity, Commodity and Currency markets

§  Students who aspire to pursue career in Financial Markets

§  Treasury dealers of Banks and Corporate

TOPICS COVERED

PROGRAMME DIRECTOR

 

Ashish Kyal is the Founder of Waves Strategy Advisors Pvt. Ltd. He is a Chartered Market Technician. Ashish is an MBA and did his Bachelor of Engineering from Mumbai University. He is a member of Market Technicians Association (USA). He has vast experience in Capital markets and has worked with leading Investment Banks like Lehman Brothers, Nomura Holdings within Capital Markets division. He has worked on quantifying and evaluating risk on Portfolios of Global Hedge Funds and has extensively researched on Short Interest analysis for Security Lending and Borrowing market, developed a tool that can be used as a Sentiment indicator and can analyze likelihood of Short Squeeze. He has worked for commodity exchange of India for designing the Risk Management model for Futures commodity market.                   

Ashish is a frequent speaker on business channels like Zee Business, CNBC TV18. He is a regular columnist for Economic Times section of Navbharat Times, a leading newspaper in India. He has also been a guest speaker at host of management colleges & frequently speaks at financial seminars. Ashish has written articles for “Technically Speaking” (MTA Newsletter USA). He actively blog his views on Equity markets using advanced technical tools like Elliott wave analysis & Time Cycles. He has written extensively on Global assets including Metals, Alternative Energy, Agro Commodities, Bonds, across multiple time frames.             

Date & Venue

July 12 & 13 2014 (Timing: 11AM - 4PM)

Hotel Grand Sarovar Premiere, Goregoan, Mumbai .This belongs to 5 star category having chain of international hotels

Fees

Rs 8,000 per participant, plus 12.36% service tax (Total: Rs 8990). The Fees include cost of tuition, lunch, Evening Tea/Coffee, Certification. If enrolled after 15^th June 2014 the charges will be Rs.10,000 + 12.36% Service Tax (Total: Rs. 11,236)

After the course :

• 1 week of free research report
• Certificate on successful completion
• Instant interaction of Social Media platforms- Facebook page/Facebook group, Twitter- #AskAshishKyal,  
• Refer a friend and get 10% discount

Registration

Registration can be done from website http://www.wavesstrategy.com/payment/  Demand draft/Cheque should be drawn in favor of Wave Strategy Advisors Pvt. Ltd.

For Details & Registration, please contact:

Waves Strategy Advisors Pvt. Ltd.

208, Pragati Shopping Center, Daftary Road, Malad East.

Phone: +91 22 28831358, +91 9920422202

Email:  helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com

Website: www.wavesstrategy.com

Gold a sharp selloff – Is it a beginning of next major trend?

Gold has lost its sheen over past many months and this is no surprise to us. We have been talking about Gold underperformance for more than a year and now even the traders are losing interest in yellow metal which has been the darling of commodity for more than a decade.

Gold has enjoyed decade long Bull run since 2002 onwards. A true rally in Gold is when prices rise against all the major currencies across the Globe and not just Indian Rupee. Even though Gold made new highs against INR in 2013 it failed to do so against USD, EURO, GBP, JPY. This clearly suggested that the rally in Gold prices in INR was unsustainable and only contributed by Rupee depreciation.

The below chart and analysis of Gold clearly reflects how Elliott wave analysis suggested an upcoming capitulation and severe selloff in this asset class:

MCX Gold 60 mins chart: (June contract) (as shown on 21^st May morning report)

Happened as on 21^st May post market analysis:

The severe selloff in Gold might be a surprise to many but not to our subscribers. We have mentioned the following yesterday morning when Gold was trading near 28200 “On upside 28350 is the important resistance. On downside any sharp move below 28000 will resume downtrend…….”

Happened: Gold made a sharp reversal and as soon as 28000 level was broken prices fell sharply and made a low of 27350.

We gave sell call on Gold as well to our intraday call subscribers who capitalized on the selloff.

Subscribe to the intraday / positional call of Commodity and get the research report absolutely free “The Commodity Waves” See yourself what is the trend for Gold, Silver, Crude, Copper and we also cover Natural Gas, Lead, Zinc periodically. Trade systematically. For subscription option visit http://www.wavesstrategy.com/index.php/store.html or write to us at helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com/ +91 22 28831358 / +91 9920422202

Trading opportunities captured in RelCap, BPCL, PFC, CESC, Grasim, Jubliant!

The below articles highlights on how one can capture trading opportunities on stocks like RelCap, BPCL, PFC, CESC, Grasim, Jubliant!

Below is the excerpt from our “Financial Waves Short Term Update” published in last 10 days to our paid subscribers which gave good trading opportunity. For more subscription details visit http://www.wavesstrategy.com/index.php/store.html

Reliance Capital Daily chart:

Anticipated on 15^th May 2014: Our favored view is positive with the support of 400 and 380. If prices continue to sustain above 400 levels, then over short term 470/480 levels can be seen on upside where next resistance comes.

Happened Yesterday: After breaking above big consolidation, stock sustained above 400 levels. In today’s trading session it made a high near 484 levels and achieved our mentioned levels.

BPCL Daily chart: 16^th May 2014)

Anticipated on 16^th May 2014: For BPCL our favored view is positive and any decisive break of 530 level will infuse the buying pressure and prices will head towards 590/600 levels.

Happened Yesterday: After breaking above 530 level, buying pressure intensified and made a high of 589 in today’s trading session.

Power Finance Corporation Daily chart:(15^th May 2014)

Anticipated on 15^th May 2014: For PFC our favored view is positive. On downside 210 followed by 200 will act as strong support and prices can move towards 265/270 on upside.

Happened Yesterday: Prices sustained above 210 level, made a high of 292 in today’s trading session.

Grasim Industries Daily chart: (14^th May 2014)

Anticipated on 14^th May 2014: With the support of 2750 level, our bias is positive. Any move above 2930 level will take prices towards 3100/3150 where first resistance comes.

Happened on 16^th May 2014: After breaking above 2930 level, prices did not look back and made an intraday high of 3274.

Jubilant Food Daily chart: (13^th May 2014)

Anticipated on 13^th May 2014: Any move above 1080 can push the prices to 1150/1180 Levels where first resistance comes.

Happened on 16^th May 2014: As soon as 1080 was taken out, strong momentum generated on upside and touched the level of 1180.

CESC Daily chart:

Anticipated on 12^th May 2014: our bias for short to medium term trend is positive. Prices can move towards 540/550 where channel resistance comes.

Happened on 16^th May 2014: Prices made a high at 549.70 and almost achieved our mentioned level.

To know 3 different stocks with trading opportunity on daily basis before the Equity Market opens and speak with our analyst directly on yahoo messenger for any queries relating to research report just Subscribe to The Financial Waves Short Term Update and get instant updates. To subscribe visit http://www.wavesstrategy.com/index.php/store.html or write to us at helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com or call us on +91 9920422202/+91 22 28831358