CNBC TV18 Bull’s Eye – How Ashish Kyal, CMT won consecutive 4th time? Stock analysis!

It is an amazing feeling to win Bull’s Eye trade show for the 4th time in a row. And interestingly all the other participants had been negative during this period. Below give a brief about the various trades taken during the week of 26th March.

The week of 26th March was a truncated one with only 3 trading sessions. But it was challenging as Nifty was not trending in any direction.

The most important things I followed to win for the 4th consecutive time was to analyse the direction of Nifty by using tools like Elliott wave, Neo wave and other technical indicators like Moving averages, Channels. Once there is clarity on where the major index is headed it becomes easy to understand how many trades out of total 4 allowed each day should be on the long side or short side.

26rd March trades:  Stock tips – Buy: Marico & Titan Short: Capital First & Chennai Petro

Nifty was in the down trend prior to 26th March but it was close to the multi-week channel support. As the bias was negative it was prudent to have a few positions on the short side. At the same time since we were expecting a positive reversal the stocks that were outperforming and defensive were picked up. Both Marico and Titan belong to the consumer sector and did not participate in the downtrend. Infact, as soon as markets stabilized these stocks reversed back on upside sharply exactly as expected. Chennai petro on the other hand cracked as it was in strong momentum on downside. This helped us to be ahead by substantial margin in the first week itself.

27th March trades:  Stock tips – Buy: Balkrishna Industries, Apollo Tyre & Bata; Short: HDIL

Nifty managed to close above the high of prior day which indicated that the overall trend might be changing. So we went long on 3 stocks and as the crucial resistances were still not broken we stayed short on one stock – HDIL. This was a quiet day as Nifty formed DOJI with no clear direction.

28th March trades:  Stock tips – Buy: Muthoot Finance, Nestle & Cyient; Short: Cummins India

The week was favourable to defensive and IT stocks. So I decided to go long on Nestle and Cyient. Muthoot Finance formed a higher highs and higher lows after a while and there was possibility of very short term reversal. Cummins India continued to be a major loser and the momentum was strong on downside. Interestingly, Nifty corrected by more than 70 points on 28th March but all of the long stocks closed positive and Cummins on which I was short closed negative. This clearly helped me to stand apart from the other contestants who relatively underperformed as market direction was challenging.

In a nutshell, this is yet another consecutive win on CNBC TV18 and 4th time in a row. We are using similar methods to generate intraday calls for our Intraday / Positional advisory services.

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Nifty: How to determine price strength using Bar technique?

Nifty has been closing at life time high levels but have you seen a single candle giving a close of more than 100 points? Think again! Technical analysis methods do not always revolve around only looking at indicators like RSI, ROC or Moving averages. There is much more to it.

See below a very different way of looking at momentum.

Nifty daily chart: published today morning in daily research report

Bar technique - A very important observation is if you look at the close of Nifty since 7th of December 2017 there has been not a single day where prices closed with gain of more than 100 points. Also this was seen last only on 7th December which was reversing the earlier short term downtrend. Forget about the close, the difference between high and previous close has also been less than 100 points except that on 18th December which was Gujarat Election outcome day. On 18th as well prices closed mere 60 points higher than previous day. So, when everything is so euphoric Nifty has been simply lacking the required momentum even now.

Another important fact - over past 22 trading days on an average daily basis Nifty has gained mere 16 points. So, after completing wave …….. near the lows prices have simply failed to keep up with euphoria in wave ………. This is typical property during last legs that creates enough euphoria but prices only drift without strong bar formation. Nevertheless, we will see if Nifty manages to give a close of more than 100 points which will precursor for current rally extension as it approaches near important trendline resistance.

In short, move above ……… will keep short term tone positive which can drift prices ……………

The above research is picked up from “The Financial Waves short term update” our flagship product that covers detailed Elliott wave analysis with trade setup on Nifty, Bank Nifty, stocks using various different methods. Subscribe Now

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