Stock tips on Tata group stocks – Tata Steel, Tata Motors, Tata Chemical, TCS!

Tata Group stocks showed sharp reversal post the announcement of surprise removal of Mr. Mistry. There have been doubts raised on corporate governance on one of the most reputed group companies in India. During such scenario investors try to glue their eyes on the news and events to see what is happening around as they are anxious due to sudden reversal in Tata group stocks like Tata motors, Tata Steel, Tata Chemical, TCS etc.

Let us try to simply see from basic technical analysis perspective applied on charts on what are the crucial support and resistance levels for these stocks.

Tata Motors daily chart:

Tata Motors daily chart shows that in the recent down move prices have broken the important channel support along with strong momentum. 100 days Exponential moving average is violated now which suggests reversal in trend. 490 is the crucial level to watch on downside and 560 is the resistance.

Tata Steel daily chart:

As against to Tata Motors, Tata Steel has arrived at the crucial channel support. However the recent fall is sharp and fast in nature and hence it will be important to see how prices behave near this channel. Move below 380 will provide sign that medium term trend might be reversing on downside.

Tata Chemical daily chart:

Few days back Tata Chemical made high of 590 level with negative divergence on RSI. Post that prices have reversed sharply on downside and testing the channel support along with 50 days Exponential moving average. 500 is the important levels to watch on downside.

TCS daily chart:

TCS has been underperformer from last few years. As compared to other Tata Stocks, less damage was witnessed in TCS as prices have showed sideways to negative action in last few days. Medium term trend for this stock remains on downside with 2460 as resistance.

Ongoing issues in Tata Management can result in further volatility in days ahead however one should not trade based on news. Trading or investing in market requires objective analysis. We apply Elliott wave along with basic technical indicators to gauge the short, medium to long term trend on Nifty, Bank Nifty and stocks. To know the detailed analysis along with Elliott wave pattern on any of the above stocks along with trading strategy subscribe to “The Financial Waves Short Term Update” by visiting Pricing Page and selecting Equity research report.

Nifty outlook using combination of Elliott wave, Channels, ADX indicator, Volumes!

Nifty has been moving in lackluster fashion for many weeks now. We have applied various technical analysis methods to see the maturity of trend.

We have been prudent in capturing the lows near 8500 and index has already rallied by more than 300 points since then. The outlook was mentioned in our daily research report “The Financial Waves short term update” Also as expected the black channel resistance is broken this time since the up leg is of one higher degree. However, momentum has been lacking after just first day of rise on18th October 2016. During such scenarios it is important to look at other technical evidences to understand the maturity of trend and if there are other vital clues they are providing.

Nifty daily chart:

Wave analysis:

Below part of the research is picked up from “The Financial Waves short term update”

Volumes had remained stable: Volumes normally reduces during a non – trending environment and if there is increase in volume with no net progress in prices it indicates distribution. From the daily chart, we can see that the average of volume (red) shown on the volume indicator had remain stable since July onwards. However, Nifty was trading near 8670 level in last week of July and we are still near to that level. Such non trending move should ideally result into reduction in volume but we can see that the average has continued to be at the same level. This means that there has been exchange of hands without any meaningful progress in prices. Such behavior after a sustained rise is associated with Distribution pattern. It is not very promising sign from medium term perspective.

Average Directional Index (ADX) – ADX indicator measures the strength of the trend. This indicator rises during a strong trending move irrespective whether the trending move is on upside or downside, whereas a non – trending move results into lower reading on ADX. The same is highlighted by black line which has now touched 13 level that was seen during early April just when the bigger degree uptrend was starting. We are seeing this reading again at the current levels that indicates non – trending move after a sustain rise probably a distribution.

ADX is normally calculated using positive Directional Movement index (+DMI) and negative Directional movement index (-DMI) and the average of the difference of this indicators form ADX. In simple terms, it measures the strength of positive bar formation over negative bars over the given period of time. Such low readings on ADX only points towards the fact that a trending move is now due. It does not highlight the direction of the trend but it strongly suggests that the boring trading environment is going to be over soon.

Nifty 60 minutes chart along with detailed Elliott wave counts are shown in the actual research report “The Financial Waves short term update” with short to medium term outlook and key reversal areas. For more details visit Pricing Page.

Biocon: How Channels and Elliott wave can be used to set target levels!

At times combination of these techniques – Channel along with Elliott wave can help to capture the trend to the point.

Trading is a systematic activity and for that one needs to understand the market behavior. If the pattern under formation is clear then next trend can be captured with favorable risk reward ratio. For understanding market we apply Elliott wave and other basic technical analysis methods like Channels, Moving averages, RSI. All these indicators provide important support and resistance areas where one should book profit.

Biocon touched our mentioned target of 1020 level exactly on 21^st October 2016. We were able to capitalize on up move and prices moved exactly in lines with our expectations. The part of the same is shown below taken from “The Financial Waves Short Term Update”

Biocon 60 mins chart: (Anticipated in the morning of 19^th October 2016)

Biocon 60 mins chart: (Happened on 21^st October 2016)

(Part of research published in the morning of 19^th October 2016)

Wave analysis:

“Prices have continued to move higher however from last one month corrective rally is ongoing. This suggests that minor wave (v) of wave …. is forming Ending Diagonal Pattern and that is why overlapping rally has continued.

As shown in 60 mins chart, stock has bounced back from the blue trendline support and as per pattern also one leg on upside is pending. Move above 972 will suggest that uptrend has resumed towards trendline resistance.

In short, break of 972 will take prices towards 1020 level where red trendine is placed with important support at 930 level.”

Happened: post breaking above 972, prices sustained above important support levels and rallied towards the exact target of 1020 level by 21^st October 2016. Post touching our target, prices have now reversed on downside? So what should be the trading strategy from here on?

Trade with objective techniques! Subscribe to “The Financial Waves Short Term Update” which covers Nifty and 3 stocks on daily basis with detailed explanation and key levels one can use to form trading strategy. For subscription to this research report simply visit Pricing Page and get insight into short to medium term outlook on markets and what are the key reversal areas. 

How our Elliott wave channel highlighted of reversal using Moving average - Elliott wave techniques?

Nifty showed sharp rise after coming close to the level of 8506 and rallied by more than 150 points in single day.

Is it possible to predict such movements and anticipate a reversal? The answer is absolutely yes and you can very well see the below video published on 14^th October 2016 i.e. Friday at 4 pm which clearly highlighted why we were at cluster of support levels. It also shows how we are combining Moving averages along with Elliott wave. Nifty has rallied by more than 150 points in yesterday’s session and very well protected the zone of 8500.

Video update:

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In addition to above we also mentioned the following in our daily research reports that clearly hinted towards crucial support levels. On 18^th October morning Equity research report “The Financial Waves short term update” we mentioned the following:

The daily chart clearly shows cluster of support levels at the current juncture. For now we are keeping a close watch if this cluster is broken with a strong move on downside or prices just flirt around the important levels and shows reversal from here. Bank Nifty has managed to show positive divergence with Nifty i.e. Bank Nifty closed positive. ICICI Bank has alone managed to keep this index in positive but fall on other banking stocks has been in overlapping fashion. Let us see if this index can lead and show positive attempt over a day or two. In short, Nifty is in important zone for now……..if we see a move back above 8600 it can lead to short term squeeze resulting into up move.

Nifty indeed managed to protect the cluster of support levels and moved sharply higher towards 8700 as soon as 8600 was taken out on upside. So where is the current uptrend going to end and what will be the next probable target levels?

To know more subscribe to “The Financial Waves short term update” daily equity research report containing Nifty, Bank Nifty, stocks on rotational basis.

Attend the two days online webinar on “Combining Basic Technical analysis along with Elliott wave and Time cycles” to be held on 20^th October and 21^st October 2016. Now distance is not a problem and the recordings of the session will be made available in case you miss it due to technology issue. Along with it get access to Ashish Kyal, CMT directly by posting discussions or writing to him directly. Also get access to research report FREE for one complete week! For registration Contact US now!

ICICI Bank reversed exactly from important Channel support but credit goes to Essar news!

Essar Rosneft deal will help Essar pay back its debt to ICICI Bank that helped the stock to gain by nearly 7%. Is it really the news that drove stock higher which was already expected?

It is surprising to see such co-ordination between the news and the technical study. Exactly from the previously mentioned support of 240 levels on ICICI Bank which is also channel support prices bounced sharply and the credits are given to the Essar Rosneft deal.

Yesterday this stock was up by 7% and managed to hold Bank nifty on a positive note.

ICICI Bank daily chart:

Elliott Wave analysis:

The daily chart shows that in the start of 2016 prices are moving in primary wave X. The channeling technique has been working well on the above chart and yesterdays bounce is the best example to look upon. Now from medium term perspective trend will be positive as far as this support line is intact. On upside we should see up move towards the channel resistance in the form of minor wave c.

As shown in 60 mins chart, (shown in actual research report)……

Nifty has shown a sharp rise so far in current trading session and is about to cross above 8600 levels. We have been mentioning the key support levels in our research report and prices respected that level even now. In range bound markets it is crucial to buy near supports and sell near resistances rather than trading the breakouts. We combined various techniques like Bollinger Bands, Moving averages along with Elliott wave to understand the reversal areas.

The above research is picked up from the daily report – The Financial Waves short term update published daily before Equity markets open. The report contains detailed technical analysis along with Elliott wave chart of Nifty and different stocks. For subscription to this research report simply visit Pricing page and select Equity research report.

Attend the two days online webinar on “Combining Basic Technical analysis along with Elliott wave and Time cycles” to be held on 20^th October and 21^st October 2016. Now distance is not a problem and the recordings of the session will be made available in case you miss it due to technology issue. Along with it get access to Ashish Kyal, CMT directly by posting discussions or writing to him directly. Also get access to research report FREE for one complete week! For registration Contact US now!

Fractal Nature: SBI and TataMotors: Can you identify the difference?

Fractal Nature: Can you identify the difference between the below two stocks SBI and Tata Motors belonging to the separate sectors and industry?

The below research is picked up from monthly research report – The Financial Waves Monthly update published on 6^th October 2016.

The below charts only highlights to the fact that how highly correlated can stocks become during the corrections. Below charts are of two different stocks – SBI (blue) and Tata Motors (red). It is indeed amazing to see such fractal nature irrespective of their fundamentals and time frame.

SBI belongs to the Banking industry and Tata Motors within the auto space. Both of them have very different business model but at times they exhibit extremely high correlation. Look at the below chart again and at a glance you will think both the charts are of same stock. Since 29^th August 2016 we can see that SBI and Tata Motors have been moving in lock step fashion. Infact the percentage change on daily basis had been more or less similar.

Figure 4: SBI and Tata Motors hourly chart tomorrow (chart as on 5^th October 2016)

Case in point is above charts clearly reflects that diversification might not necessarily help. The events of 29^th September also resulted into sharp decline and similar reversals in these stocks. During major corrections the correlation increases across all the stocks and not only a few. Think again if you are really diversifying by using multiple stocks in portfolio!

……………… This is a very different way in which technical analysis can be looked upon and trust me these are subtle but important changes.

Fractal nature also forms the building block of Elliott wave analysis. Elliott wave helps us to understand the maturity of trend and the probable scenarios. During middle of complex correction it is important to rely on other basic technical analysis method but once the pattern is near completion Elliott wave provides very high probable trade setups. So combining both basic methods with Elliott wave becomes extremely important and when both are in sync one should not think twice to pull the trigger!

Subscribe to “The Financial Waves Monthly update” and get access to medium to long term views on Nifty, Midcap index, Stocks, Global markets, Commodity, Currency and much more. For subscription visit Pricing Page.

Attend the two days online webinar on “Combining Basic Technical analysis along with Elliott wave and Time cycles” to be held on 20^th October and 21^st October 2016. Now distance is not a problem and the recordings of the session will be made available in case you miss it due to technology issue. Along with it get access to Ashish Kyal, CMT directly by posting discussions or writing to him directly. Also get access to research report FREE for one complete week! For registration Contact US now!

Video update: How to combine Moving Averages along with Elliott Wave?

#ElliottWave news channel is a short video series. Ashish Kyal of http://www.wavesstrategy.com/  will be going live weekly at 4 pm every Friday. Stay tuned to know the current technical state of markets and learn more on advanced concepts of Elliott wave, #Neowave and #TimeCycles.

Join US for the 2 days online training webinar  on Elliott wave combined together with Technical Tools like Channels, Fibonacci, Time Cycles etc  – powerful tool to analyze markets using Elliott wave patterns.Topic: Elliott Wave and Time Cycles – A complete different way to look at market behavior and trading.Online training Date: 20^th & 21^st October 2016, Time: 6 pm to 9 pm 

For more details visit: Elliott wave Training

How long the current uptrend in Crude will last?

Riding the up move in Crude with the help of Elliott wave and Channels.

In commodity we have witnessed mixed performance in which Precious Metals lost its shine in current month and moved sharply lower whereas Crude has continued to move in range from medium term perspective. During the range bound action one can form buying strategy near support levels and selling near resistance levels. Apart from that application of Elliott wave can guide us for the probable pattern in formation. Elliott wave takes into consideration the nature of the up move and hence trend potential as well as maturity of ongoing move can help us in forming trading strategy. Below we have shown part of research taken from “The Commodity Waves Short Term Update” on Crude.

MCX Crude October60 mins chart: (Anticipated in the morning of 3^rd October 2016)

MCX Crude October60 mins chart: (Happened on 7^th October 2016)

Wave analysis:

(Part of research published in the morning of 3^rd October 2016)

“Prices have given fresh breakout from the sideways to negative action of last few weeks. There is formation of bullish candlestick pattern with increase in momentum in last week which suggests that uptrend should continue as long as we do not see exhaustion signs.

As shown in 60 mins chart, as of now prices have completed wave c of Triangle pattern and wave d is ongoing. The acting of last session indicates that sideways action is ongoing and post these prices should move higher.

In short, on downside 3130 will continue to act as important support and move above 3240 will suggest that move towards 3300 has started.”

(Part of research published in the morning of 4th October 2016)

“Crude showed high volatility. Prices moved higher towards 3310 level however post that reversed on downside towards 3250 and made spike at 3310 level. During such volatility one should trade with strict risk management.

As shown in 60 mins chart, prices are intact in upward moving channel and prices have taken out previous wave (x) area with strong momentum. This will keep short term trend positive. However looking at the volatility some consolidation cannot be ruled out. On downside 3190 is the support.

In short, Crude trend is positive but trade with strict risk management. 3190 is the support. On upside prices can move towards 3350 level.”

Happened: We took a bullish stand on Crude as soon as 3200 was taken out with strong momentum. Post that prices managed to sustain above the pivot support areas and achieved our mentioned target of 3350 level. Will it continue to rally? What should be the trading strategy from here on?

Subscribe to “The Commodity Waves Short Term Update” which covers Gold, Silver, Crude and Copper with Elliott wave theory and Important levels. For subscription Contact Us

Live webinar - Training on Elliott Wave, Time Cycles by Ashish Kyal, CMT

Trade using Elliott wave and Time cycles – Learn online with practical charts and application of one of the most important technical analysis method.

In this challenging market you really need to know when to enter and exit the trend. Even if you are right calling for the overall market direction but do not time it well one might end up losing on the strategy.

These techniques have helped us for winning the important stock market shows both on ET Now with substantial margins and CNBC TV18. So there is a strong proof of what we believe works in markets.

It is during such volatile environment that there can be plenty of trading opportunities provided you have right objective tools. One of the most common requests we get from subscribers - Is it possible to learn how to look at a charts and find opportunities for themselves?

It is very much possible if you have the right tools but experience is also an important element but it is never too late to start gaining it! Now distance is not a problem. Technology helps us to bridge the gap by providing necessary real life environment. Learn from anywhere you want. 

Our online course on Elliott Wave will guide you to identify trade setups and predict the reversal areas!

About the Speaker:

Ashish Kyal, CMT a frequent speaker on CNBC TV 18,  Zee Business, Bloomberg TV, RajyaSabha TV, ET Now, applies basic as well as advanced Technical Analysis concepts like Elliott Wave, Fibonacci retracement, Time Cycles, etc. He has been successful in calling major market turns including the bottom of 29^th February 2016.

Whether you are an Intraday or Positional trader or investor investing in Stocks, Commodities or Forex, futures or options – you get a practical trading education that you can start applying on charts after the course.

Join US for the 2 days online training webinar  on Elliott wave combined together with Technical Tools like Channels, Fibonacci, Time Cycles etc  – powerful tool to analyze markets using Elliott wave patterns.

Topic: Elliott Wave and Time Cycles – A complete different way to look at market behavior and trading.

Online training Date: 20^th & 21^st October 2016, Time: 6 pm to 9 pm 

Registration Fee: 8000 + Tax @15%

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Testimonials:

Date: 01st October, 2016

Very nice and broader way of analysis and to interpret the future moves much clearly.

-Ramesh Kumar K, State Bank of Mysore

Date: 01st October, 2016

The trainer has explained the basic concepts of Elliott Waves and other technical analysis methods very clearly. The training session also had analysis on live markets.

-Sindhu V, IDBI Bank Ltd., Bangaluru

Date: 14th October, 2013

The simplification of complex subject of "Elliott Waves" and combination of Elliot Waves with Classical Technical Tools are not only Awesome, but Unique too. I've thoroughly enjoyed Mr. Kyal's Seminar at Sarovar Premier Hotel, Bombay during13th & 14th October, 2013 because of his Flawless, Plain (Jargon free) and Lucid Language. Best of all I liked his virtue to teach what he really performs in his real professional life. And last, but not least, Mr. Kyal's Seminar was the Best of All Seminars I've ever attended.

-Kiran Banjara, KB Investment Avenues, Ahmadabad-GJ

Bank Nifty: Applying Bollinger Bands® and Channels on monthly charts

Bank Nifty is a very important leading indicator for Equity markets. Channels and Bollinger Bands provide lot of clues to the ongoing trend along with important reversal areas.

The below chart of Bank Nifty was published in previous months research report – “The Financial Waves Monthly update”. Prices have continued to behave as expected and are still contained within the bands. Elliott wave counts are purposely removed and is shown in the actual research reports.

Figure 5: Bank Nifty monthly chart

Post forming a low at 13400 level Bank Nifty has continued to move higher protecting the important support on downside and as of now trading at the high of 2016. The recent breakout on upside in Nifty after the month long consolidation and outperformance of Bank Nifty is creating euphoria and understanding the overall trend as per Elliott wave theory is required.

Bollinger Bands: During the range bound market, Bollinger Bands work well. We can see that prices are now close to the upper Bollinger Bands. As per this resistance of the same is placed at 20600 level. So it will be crucial to see if prices take halt near the same level or not over medium term.

Monthly bar technique: as the rally is corrective in nature, one should use other techniques like monthly bar technique to be in the trend. From last 6 months prices have been protecting the low of prior bar on closing basis. This is simple but very important tool to ride the trend. As per this, low of 18440 should act as important support and as long as this level is intact one should avoid catching a top.

The daily chart shows that prices have been moving higher in channelized manner which is why the entire up move is ………. As of now there are no exhaustion signs and it is better to follow the trend….

By adding detailed Elliott wave counts to the above chart the entire pattern suddenly becomes all the more appealing.

“The Financial Waves monthly update” is published every month providing medium to long term outlook on Nifty, sub-Indices, stocks, Global markets and much more. Contact US to get your copy of the research report now.

Attend the training on - How basic technical methods can be combined together with Elliott wave and Time cycles! Distance is not a problem. Register NOW for the online training webinar to be held on 20^th and 21^st of September 2016 and get FREE access to our research database, access to closed user discussion group where I will personally address to queries for limited time, Training videos available even after the training and much more. Register here for this online webinar!

Nifty reversed exactly as expected when majority turned BEARISH! Here is the proof…

Channeling technique, Elliott wave theory and sentiment indicators all helped us to be against the crowd this time as well post the Indo – Pak surgical strike event on 29^th September 2016.

In Thursday’s trading session which was 29^th September 2016, mayhem was witnessed in Indian Equity markets. The sharp fall was witnessed post the announcement by Indian Army - Surgical Strike in POK. Within a few minutes after the announcement Nifty moved sharply lower from near 8800 to 8559 level. Such kind of fall was enough for majority to turn bearish however; we took a contrarian bullish stand at that time. Following were the updates published to our subscribers of “The Financial waves short term update” along with Video release justifying our objective stand for up move. 

Interim Update published on 29^th September 2016 at 1:30 pm, Nifty was trading at 8650

Bottom Line: Nifty showed sharp move on downside on back of an event. Such declines on event or news create important levels. It is interesting to see Nifty has bounced back exactly from the important channel support near 8560 and so does many of the stocks. I do not think it is panic scenario and we cannot rule out upside pullback. One should keep an eye on 8540 as very important support and 8710 as short term resistance. Decisive break above 8710 will indicate positivity. I would take a contrary stand against majority who are extremely bearish now given that the fall is on back of event and one leg on upside looks pending as per Elliott wave.

Detailed analysis along with charts will be published in tomorrow's morning Equity research report - The Financial Waves short term update. Stay tuned!

There is more to it, we also published the below video explaining why Nifty is at important juncture from technical perspective.

Video update published in the evening of 29^th September 2016: How to trade Nifty post Surgical Strike?- click here

Nifty 60 mins chart: (Anticipated in the morning of 30^th September 2016)

Nifty 60 mins chart:  (Happened till now)

“As shown on 60 mins chart of Nifty, we can see that there are 3 important channels meeting at the lows of yesterday. The most important channel is the bigger blue one that connects the low of Brexit day i.e. 24^th June. Another red channel connects the lows from the zone where there was lot of trading activity previously and the short term black channel connects the recent highs and lows. It is not very often to see confluence of so many trendlines at one place and if market closes near this trendline we cannot rule out the possibility of a bounce back. Such strong support zone can either be broken by a Gap or by a strong selling pressure creating big red bar. So if today Nifty decisively breaks below 8540 level and sustains there throughout the day then we can be headed for deeper correction. But in case prices manage to protect the lows for a day or two then we can resume back towards the level where Nifty was trading before the news broke out.(Part of research taken from the report dated 30th September 2016)

Looking at the Elliott wave pattern the entire structure looks like a Flat correction marked in alternate labels with wave b currently ongoing and post its completion we can see wave c on upside towards ….

In short, Indian markets have closed near important juncture and follow-up movement today and on Monday will set the tone for weeks ahead. A blue bar formation from here on will result into one final push on upside ……..

Happened: Amid the high volatility we mentioned our outlook on Nifty based on objective technical tools and as of now prices have been behaving exactly as expected. Get access to the daily research report to see what is next from here. We have turned bearish near 9000 level and bullish at the lows of 8560. It is not very often to see patterns working exactly the way they are supposed to but it is indeed thrilling to see this happening in real time in current scenario….

Subscribe NOW to Equity research reports – Click here and select Equity Research report to get access NOW.

Intraday / Positional Advisory

We also provide trading advisory intraday as well as from positional perspective: Below are a few of the trading calls which were given in last week of September 2016 and targets were achieved just before the market crashed…

AJANTA PHARMA FUT BUY AT CMP 2014 SL 1960 TGT 2095 - Target achieved on 29th September 2016

BEL FUT BUY AT CMP 1260.60 SL 1237 TGT 1297 – Target achieved on 29th September 2016

ZEEL OCT FUT BUY AT CMP 543 SL 528 TGT 566 – Partial profits booked and trailed on 29th September 2016

MnM FINANCIAL OCT FUT BUY AT CMP 363 SL 354 TGT 379 - Partial profits booked and trailed on 29th September 2016  

CASH HINDUSTAN ZINC BUY AT CMP 244.90 SL 229 TGT 268 (given today) – Partial profits booked and the stock touched intraday high of  262.50 already today

There are times when due to challenging market conditions trading calls can be tricky but if the overall pattern is clear with prudent risk reward ratio than we do not mind to take a stand against the majority. Subscribe NOW to the trading calls and get research report free – Click here to register and select Intraday / Positional advisory. 

Live Webinar – Online training on Combining basic technicals with Elliott wave and Time cycles

In this challenging market you really need to know when to enter and exit the trend. Even if you are right calling for the overall market direction but do not time it well one might end up losing on the strategy. These techniques have helped us for winning the important stock market shows both on ET Now with substantial margins and CNBC TV18. So there is a strong proof of what we believe works in markets. It is during such volatile environment that there can be plenty of trading opportunities provided you have right objective tools. Now distance is not a problem. Learn from anywhere you want. 

Live webinar - Training on How Basic technical’s can be combined with Elliott Wave, Time Cycles by Ashish Kyal, CMT - Click here for more information 

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