Nifty reversed and broke the wedge shaped pattern! Is this resumption of bigger degree downtrend?

Nifty topped out at the level of 8654 after rallying for 28 days from the lows of 7940 levels. Many would have come across the news and forecasts that prices are headed for much higher levels towards 9000++ during this up move. However, when Nifty crossed above 8600 we have been cautioning our subscribers about the lack of momentum and participation in the up move and that the uptrend is only going to be temporary with medium term trend on downside.

Yesterday’s selloff of more than 150 points simply reflected how vulnerable the entire up move had been!

Here is what was mentioned just few days before the fall:

Nifty 60 mins chart: showed on 24^th July 2015 in daily research report “The Financial Waves short term update”

Happened as of 27^th July 2015:

Elliott Wave analysis: below was published on 24^th July 2015 morning before markets opened

In the last update we mentioned that, “In short, …..one should be ready to change the stand as and when prices shows strength or weakness. Sustainability above 8650 is required to see continuation of this up move whereas move below pivot low of 8500 will be bearish!”

Volumes: As shown on daily chart, volumes have been reducing in this entire rise and the 14 days Moving average of volume is drifting lower whereas during a down day the volumes are increasing. This is an indication of distribution rather than accumulation which is also in sync with the wave characteristic of b wave. Over medium term 8315 is now an important level to watch which is the swing low and also below 200 days Moving average.

Nifty hourly chart shows loss in momentum as prices made high above prior peak but RSI continued to deteriorate and made lower high. Also the steepness of the rally has been reducing with each leg getting smaller on upside from 7940 levels. As mentioned earlier the entire rise looks like a wedge shaped pattern and unless we see a strong move above the crucial resistance of 8730 we continue to look at this as wave b, post completion of which we should see wave c on downside.

From Price Time reversal perspective, we should see faster move below the last rising segment i.e. move below 8500 within two days is required to provide first negative confirmation that the up move is in danger….”

The above research published on 24^th July 2015 clearly indicated reduction in volume, momentum and the size of rally. The sharp selloff of 160 points shown on 2^nd chart simply indicates how irrational the up move can make majority when the expectations of 9000 – 9500++ started building up exactly when Nifty was due to reverse.

The 2^nd chart clearly highlights the severity of fall and the strong trending move in opposite direction.

If this is indeed completion of a wedge shaped pattern then we will have much lower levels over medium term. However, markets cannot move in straight line and minor upside interruptions are plausible which will only provide fresh opportunities to place on downside.

For more details along with Elliott wave technical justification on where the short to medium term trend is headed from here and the crucial levels on Nifty and stocks subscribe to “The Financial Waves short term update” This can be just the resumption of medium term downtrend and movement can be very fast. Stay alert! Subscribe NOW and get long term forecasts research report FREE. For more details Contact US on www.wavesstrategy.com or call us on +91 9920422202 or +91 22 28831358.

Video update - Nifty and Equity Stocks Views on CNBC TV18

For subscription to daily research analysis with Elliott wave and Time cycles on Nifty and stocks visit www.wavesstrategy.com or contact us at helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com or on +91 9920422202

Gold no longer a safe HAVEN! Is it the time to Invest or bet on reversal?

In our “The Financial Waves Monthly Update” report of July 2013 we had predicted that Gold will continue to underperform and it is acting as a worst investment tool for the investors.

In the update we had mentioned Gold looks to have definitely ended secular bull trend of past 10 years and should underperform other asset classes for more 21 years! We can witness that our predictions are proving to be fruitful and the prices are trading at the lows of last 5years which is a  replica of what we have shown in the monthly update as per Technical tools and The Elliott wave counts.

Why we think Gold will start multi-decade underperformance? Published in 2013

The below chart is well explanatory…

Gold: No longer a safe Haven!!!

Gold spot USD yearly (monthly average) chart of July 2013:

Comex Gold weekly chart as of 22^nd July 2015:

Following was published in July 2013 when Gold was trading near $1400 and is currently trading below $1100 - Gold has been one of the favorite investment vehicles for over a decade. The reason being obvious for the euphoria, as seen from Figure 10 which also shows Gold path from 1920 till date. Prices have increased multifold from $272.22 in 2002 to near 1700 levels (monthly average for the year) or $1920 actual high in just a decade. This is astonishing 7 times or 524% returns in 11 years. People tend to flock to the asset class that has been in a secular bull trend. This is a good strategy but the problem is that when this secular tend ends the next leg of bear market is not acceptable to many investors since they have not seen Gold underperforming during their investment career or probably refuse to accept the fact that it can underperform other asset classes.

Gold love for Prime numbers: We can see multiple relationships in terms of Price and Time. Gold moved in controlled fashion prior to 1968 and so we can see prices constant at $35 for 33 years. Even in a controlled fashion the time for Cycle degree wave (II) is 33 years which is 11*3 both of which are prime numbers. The rally in cycle degree (III) took prices towards $612.56i.e. an increase of 17 times in 13 years, both of which is again prime number. Cycle wave (IV) lasted for 21 years which is 7*3 both again prime numbers. Cycle wave (IV) started from 272.22 and made a monthly average high of 1700 in 2012 or actual high of 1920 in 2011. Considering actual highs prices increased by 7 times in 11 years (both again prime)

Time cycles: Gold is following 33 years bottoming Time cycles very precisely since 1930. This gives next bottom low in 2030 exactly at the period when DJIA cycle is topping out. This means money to flow back to Gold from equity markets after 2030.

From wave perspective, even if Gold moved in controlled fashion prior to 1968 we are seeing very clear 5 waves on upside. We have shown idealized chart along with actual chart in figure 10. If our assumption of cycle degree (V) is right then Gold should move atleast towards previous wave top at $612 levels at minimum.

Again this was published in July 2013 - In short, Gold looks to have definitely ended secular bull trend of past 10 years and should underperform other asset classes for more 21 years!

Happened: As per weekly chart Comex Gold has continued its downward trend which was started in 2012 and as of now from the highs of 1345 prices are trading lower in the form of intermediate wave Z of complex correction. Internal structure of the same is explained in our Global research report. Prices have now taken out the pivot low of 1130 along with momentum…

So what is expected next from here over medium term? Also note that even during secular downtrend there are strong opposite side movements. So is it right time to Invest in Gold? To know the answer subscribe to the daily commodity research report “The Commodity Waves short term update” and also get the Long term forecasts in “The Financial Waves Monthly update” absolutely FREE! Contact US for more details…

Nifty video update with Elliott wave structure -- CNBC TV18

Video update on Nifty with Elliott wave structure and the key support and resistance levels to look at. For subscription to Equity research report containing detailed technical analysis on Nifty and stocks visit www.wavesstrategy.com or contact on helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com

Nifty continued to move volatile on Greece event but within a range!

Bottom Line: Nifty showed sharp move on upside as soon as the Greece bailout news was announced. Prices are not between important levels of 8560 and 8300.

Nifty daily chart:

Nifty 60 mins chart:

Wave analysis:

In the last update we mentioned that, “In short, Nifty has been moving in range as of now where 8460 followed by 8560 will continue to act as resistance and move below 8300 level will infuse selling pressure. Due to the ongoing event of Greece intraday volatility cannot be ruled out and looking at closing levels will be crucial!”

Nifty showed sharp move on upside along with global markets after the Greece bailout package and managed to close near the upper end of the range at 8460 levels. Prices had a Flat opening and traded in a narrow range till 12 pm but rallied steeply higher towards the important level of 8460 post that. Participation was seen from across the sector in this up move.

Nifty has now again arrived near the crucial upper end of the channel as shown on daily chart. This has opened up a few probable scenarios over short term and today’s action will provide more confirmation if the up move is headed for much higher levels towards the red trendline resistance at 8730 that was providing good support before and should now act as resistance.

As shown on hourly chart, the upside move has opened up the positive possibilities and break above 8560 will indicate deeper upside rally as it will break the channel shown on daily chart decisively. Also this will indicate that the low formed at 8315 was only wave x or an irregular c failure pattern as show as the alternate counts which got completed at 8315 and the next wave on upside has started. A faster move below 8300 is required for negative confirmation.

In short, Nifty is still trading in a range with a clear breakout awaited. Move above 8560 with strong momentum will open up deeper retracement towards 8730 on upside whereas faster move below 8300 is now required for negative possibilities. Let us see if the positive event only resulted into short term spike or a sustained trend for few days!

Subscribe now for the daily research report "The Financial Waves short term update" and see yourself why Indian markets are at very crucial juncture. The daily morning research will give insight in stocks and other indices as well. For subscription options visit http://www.wavesstrategy.com/Pricing.aspx

How Time cycles can be used to predict Neo wave - Advanced Elliott wave patterns?

Neo wave is an advanced concept of Elliott wave.

The major difference between a Neo wave and basic Elliott wave is based on the fact that for defining an impulse pattern there are more stringent rules to be applied in case of Neo Wave. The technique has been developed by Mr. Glenn Neely and he postulated more than 15 rules to define an impulse pattern.

The theory is definitely not easy but it is really worth because it drastically reduces the number of probable scenarios. During times when the complex correction is under formation we have to depend on other techniques of technical analysis to understand the pattern. These techniques are right from basicChannels the foundation of technical analysis to the application of Time cycles to understand the probable lows.

The below chart shows the combination of Channels, Time cycles and Neo wave counts applied on Nifty.

Nifty Daily chart:

Hurst Time cycle 54 days: Now for someone who does not necessarily practice Time cycles can still look at the chart and conclude that after every 54 days prices are trying to the change the trend from negative to positive. The low made on 16^th June is no different. However, we do not use time to forecast price magnitude but for that Advanced Elliott wave is used.

Please understand during period of complex correction it is difficult to conclude with high conviction the pattern under formation but Time cycles are suggesting that August end can be another important low and the tops are usually in between the two cycle lows. This is vital information for a Future or Options trader to form the strategy accordingly.

Above chart shows a Diametric Neo wave pattern has completed important top near 8845 and the primary wave [E] of triangle is ongoing which started in 2008. On upside 8670 can be a very important level to watch…

To know various reasons on why this level will be important and the current pattern under formation Register for the two days training program on Most Advanced Technical analysis training ever – Combining Time cycles and Neo wave to predict the reversal zones along with time! The training will be on 11^th and 12^th July 2015 by Ashish Kyal, Chartered Market technician (CMT MTA - USA) a frequent speaker on CNBC TV 18 and Zee Business.

Neo Wave and Time Cycles Training- Practical application and Trade setups

Elliott Wave, Neo Wave and Time Cycles are one of the most advanced concepts of technical analysis.

Many believe that keeping it simple is the key to trading success which is probably true but we think it applies from Risk management and money management perspective. However, with respect to timing the market and knowing when to enter the trade, simple strategy no longer gives the desired outcome given that Indian equity markets are moving in complex formations. To cater to the changing market environment it is prudent to apply the best of the tools available to increase trading success.

Time is the essence for everything. It is applicable not only to our day to day life but for freely traded markets as well. A good trade setup if not timed properly can still result into a serious loss. There are very few technical analysis studies that focus on Time since most of the techniques are driven by Price alone!

The course is designed to aim at the following aspects of trading:

1. Best Trade setups to enter the market

2. How to make the most of the position by timing the exit

3. Know when not to trade – A key to trading success

4. Applying other techniques along with Elliott wave for high conviction trade setups

5. Time cycles – A very important element to help reduce the number of probable scenarios to nearly one!

6. How to keep the profits intact after a winning streak…

Ashish Kyal, CMT will be conducting Most Advanced Technical Analysis Training – Neo wave and time cycles in Mumbai on 11-12 July 2015.

Ashish carries vast experience of analyzing World Equity, Currency and Commodity markets using techniques like Elliott Waves, Time Cycles, and momentum tools. He frequently speaks at financial seminars like Market Technicians Association (MTA - USA), Association of Technical Market Analysts (ATMA), National Institute of Bank Management (NIBM), Sydenham Management college. He is on the selection panel of GDPI for premiere B- Schools and invited by Somaiya Institute of Management Studies and Research to speak onEntrepreneurship. He has also been invited as a guest speaker at National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) for the Post Graduate Certificate Program in Financial Economics.

Training Details:

This training would cover Advanced Technical Analysis Concepts – Elliott Wave, Neo Wave and Time Cycles. Practical application of these advanced tools on Equity, Commodity, Forex and Global Markets.

Training Duration:

12 hours (6 hours daily)

Contents:

1. Overview of Elliott Wave

2. Neo Wave

3. Two stage confirmations

4. Diametric Pattern

5. Newly discovered patterns

6. Different Rules and guidelines

7. Cycle Analysis: Time the market with accuracy using Time cycles

8. Trade setups, Application of the concepts on charts

Registration Fee:

The charges for the Training are Rs. 23000 + 14% Service tax. If registered after 20^th June 2015 charges would be Rs. 26000 +14% Service tax

Registration is on first come first basis as there are limited seats.

After the course :

1. 1 Month of free Nifty Neo wave research report to understand the practical application on realtime basis

2. Instant interaction on Discussion Forum at www.wavesstrategy.com

3. All participants will be entitled for 20% Discount on any of our research products after the course for 1 month subscription

How to Enroll?

To register for the training using either Credit Card or Netbanking visit http://www.wavesstrategy.com/Payment.aspx  and mention Product as “Neo wave Training” and period as “1”

Attend the 2 days training workshop that will provide in-depth analysis on Advanced concepts of Elliott wave – Neo wave and how it can be combined with Time cycles. It focuses not only on Price but also onTime which is an important element for any trader or investor.

Register before 20^th June 2015 to avail Early Bird Offer and confirm your seat today!

For registration visit http://www.wavesstrategy.com/Payment.aspx or call us on +91 22 28831358 / +91 9920422202 or write to us at helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com      

 Testimonials    

• First of all big thank you for the excellent training session. This was one of the best training I've ever been in!!!You did terribly well! I was/and still am impressed about how you made something "simple" from this very complicated stuff called NEOWAVE -I tried to read the book, and gave up...Now I'll give it another try... 

      - Francis RAMA, France

• The simplification of complex subject of "Elliot Waves" and combination of Elliot Waves with Classical Technical Tools are not only Awesome, but Unique too. I've thoroughly enjoyed Mr. Kyal's Seminar at Sarovar Premier Hotel, Bombay during 13th & 14th October, 2013 because of his Flawless, Plain (Jargon free) and Lucid Language. Best of all I liked his virtue to teach what he really performs in his real professional life.And last, but not least, Mr. Kyal's Seminar was the Best of All Seminars I've ever attended

      -Kiran Banjara, KB Investment Avenues, Ahmadabad-GJ

• Mr. Ashish Kyal is simply the most amazing teacher of practical Elliott Wave Theory.

      -Rishabh Vasaria, Hyderabad

• Myself Sameer. Just want to share my feedback. From last 7 years, I am doing full-time trading in F&O segment (Nifty & Bank Nifty) using my technical study and Elliot wave counting. I attended 2 days Neo Wave seminar on 1st March at Goregaon. The session and teaching by Mr. Ashish Kyal was excellent. The topics covered in session e.g. new Neo wave patterns, new Elliott rules, 2 stage confirmation and Time Cycles were very useful. Today I applied these techniques on Nifty and Bank Nifty (Daily & 60 Min charts) and its working perfectly fine. I am very much satisfied with the course. Just want to say Thank You for sharing such valuable knowledge. I have also subscribed for your daily mail service on Nifty EOD and Elliott view. From last 3 months, I am reading these mails daily. I always verify my own analysis with your mails, before taking any entry in market. The accuracy and success ratio of your mails (analysis) is more than 98%, which is excellent. Thanks again.

      - Sameer Dharaskar,Mumbai

Ashish Kyal, CMT CNBC TV 18 Midcap stocks on Market Radar 20150707

For more details on video updates and daily research on Equity, Commodity and Forex markets using Elliott wave, Neo wave and Time cycles visit www.wavesstrategy.com.

Attend the 2 days training workshop that will provide in-depth analysis on Advanced concepts of Elliott wave – Neo wave and how it can be combined with Time cycles. It focuses not only on Price but also on Time which is an important element for any trader or investor.

For registration call us on +91 22 28831358 / +91 9920422202 or write to us at helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com