Nifty near new highs but on slowing momentum!

The below research is published in "The Financial Waves Short term update" by Waves Strategy Advisors. This reserach report has Nifty along with 3 different stocks and Elliott wave counts. For subscription options visit http://wavesstrategy.com/index.php/store.html

Bottom Line: Nifty continued to move higher and tested previous important top but so far it has been on slower momentum!

                      

Nifty daily chart:

Nifty 60 mins chart:

Nifty 60 mins chart: slower momentum

Wave Analysis:

In previous update we mentioned that, “…In short, on upside high made near 6250 followed by 6300 will be extremely important on closing basis. A strong close above 6300 will force us to adopt alternative bullish possibility and a probable upside breakout from the consolidation of 6 years correction.”

We have been bullish on Nifty all the way from 5800 to 6200 and we have also mentioned about the importance of the current trading zone which it has touched many times before as well. A decisive breakout above the previous highs will indicate start of next trend on upside. But we have changed our short term stand to negative few days back based on the fact that the up move has been associated with slower and slower momentum. Also prices broke the important channel support by moving below 6120 thereby indicating that the short term up move is lacking conviction and would rather fail one more time before managing to make new highs.

Volumes have also gone down from the peak value which was last seen in August with upside volumes spikes were registered on 19^th and 20^th September and since then it has been constantly reducing. We should have strong volumes at current levels to indicate accumulation even at higher levels for Nifty to make new highs.

Daily RSI has failed to move above 70 so far. It is again close to this range but has exhibited negative divergence. A turn down in prices from here will create one more negative divergence on daily scale. On shorter time frame, a closer look reveals that each of the important highs at 5920, 6140, 6156, 6252 and 6269 has been made with RSI reading of 84.50, 80.20, 75, 62.50, 66. This clearly shows that momentum indicators are not supporting the up move. This is visible on above 60 mins chart.

Such movement and waning out of momentum was last seen during the uptrend of January 2013 when markets made a peak of 6114 and then reversed for next 2 to 3 months.

From wave perspective, since no part of wave C except in wedge pattern can break the 0-B trendline we have redrawn this trendline to accommodate for the spike down seen 2 days back. Also actual wave “a” started from 5320 and not 5118 so the actual 0-b trendline is shown above which is still intact as of now.

If the current move has been a 3^rd wave up and not c then we should not have so many technical reasons mentioned above against the 3^rd wave and momentum should pick up in 3^rd waves which is actually slowing down and is a typical property of wave c.

On one lower degree we have tweaked short term counts to accommodate possible extension seen in wave c. At the high of 6270, wave v= wave i and also entire wave c is exactly equal to wave a.

Given all these technical factors, we have to wait for prices to close below the previous day’s low for minor negative confirmation and a move below Tuesday’s low of 6079 will be extremely crucial. Markets normally do not move up with so much of negative indication but nevertheless these indicators will start turning on upside and remove negative divergences if Nifty closes above 6300 where we will be forced to adopt bullish alternatives which looks lower probable as of now.

In short, the uptrend looks on lack of strength and momentum so far and 6300 will be extremely important level. Move below 6210 followed by break of 6080 is required for start of negative trend atleast towards 5800.

 The above research was published in today's morning report by Waves Strategy Advisors. For subscription option visit http://wavesstrategy.com/index.php/store.html or write to helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com or call us at +91 9920422202 / +91 22 28831358

Nifty Trading Strategy post RBI policy announcement!

In today’s policy meet RBI increases repo rate by 25 bps and cuts MSF by 25 bps.

After taking the governor position Mr. Rajan has increased the key policy repo rate by 50bps in total. Many thinks that the policy announcement decides the trend of the market but that is not necessary. There are times when market reacts to favorable news positively and at times it moves exactly opposite to the expected positive outcome. The reason being that the events do not change the trend of the market but only produces short term spikes that last from few minutes to hours or days but the original trend later on resumes. Elliott wave principle – an advanced technical analysis concept helps to understand this trend and provide forecasting ability.

Have a look at the below chart and try to forecast Nifty using only Interest rate cycle. Infact, if you observe markets have gone up after the repo rate hike on both of the instances.

 The above chart clearly shows interest rates do not decide the major trend of the market but nevertheless it plays a vital role in providing information from Economic analysis perspective. An interest rate cycle tops out before the major bottom is formed in Equity markets. There is much more to this chart about Economic cycle analysis.

In our forthcoming issue “The Financial Waves Monthly Update” we will be giving a very details observation on what we see on above charts without using any other technical indicators. It is simply prices and Interest rates that can also provide vital information as to the major trend of the market. For pricing structure visit Subscription or Contact US!

Hindalco: Why “Coalgate” SCAM did not help from trading perspective?

Hindalco has been in news for over past few weeks with regards to “Coalgate” SCAM.

Trading based on simply news can be very challenging. On 21^st October following news was announced – 

Hindalco Industries Ltd (HALC.NS) gain as much as 4.3 percent after Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's office says he is satisfied with the outcome of the process of allocating coal blocks to certain companies, dealers say.

The stock in today’s trading session is down by almost 2% and way down from 120 levels when the news was announced. Looking at the below chart it is difficult to even say that either positive or negative news has impacted the stock let alone trading based on news.

  

Hindalco 120 mins chart:

The above chart and below explanation is picked up from “The Financial Waves” short term update research report published on daily basis.

Wave Analysis:

Metal Index is one of the indices which started to outperform the market from the start of August 2013. During August we have witnessed one of the major downside corrections of 2013 in markets. However, during that period this index started to move higher. During this run up, Hindalco went up from 85 to 125 levels. However, from the mid September 2013, prices were consolidating between 125 and 110. Recently, it has breached important support of 110 and closed below that, which indicates ……

As per wave perspective, from the start of 2013 prices have been trading in flat correction pattern as primary wave B has retraced more than 61.8% of primary wave A. The break below 110 indicates that primary wave C has started on downside which can move at least towards ……..

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Nifty showing weakness above 6200! High probability of downside reversal...

The below research report is picked up from daily "The Financial Waves STU" that not only have Nifty but 3 different stocks as well on daily basis. By Waves Strategy Advisors. Please visit http://wavesstrategy.com/index.php/store.html for subscription options

The data and charts are as per today's morning before markets opened. Bottom Line: Nifty continued to form red bars for 3 consecutive period and closed negative though marginally!

                      

Nifty daily chart:

Nifty 60 mins chart:

Wave Analysis:

In previous update we mentioned that, “In short, next 2 to 3 days of price action will be very important and close below 6120 followed by 6040 will be bearish. We are yet to get any confirmation from broader market which will be extremely important for trend reversal. So wait either 6220 to break on upside for minor positivity or 6120 to break on downside on closing basis for negative confirmation.”

Nifty opened minor negative but rallied quickly breaking above the previous high and touched 6150 levels on upside. The volatility seems to be increasing again atleast on intraday basis and prices quickly fell back towards 6150 thereby covering a total of 100 points from top to bottom. This simply represents anxiety by traders at higher levels and is indicating weakness in current uptrend.

The outperforming sector – IT has started showing weakness and stocks like TCS, Wipro has showed good retracement from higher levels. Other sectors like Pharma and FMCG has started moving sideways during this period.

On RSI strong negative divergence can be seen on hourly chart and daily RSI is failing to cross above 70 levels. Moving average difference indicator is showing negative divergences as well. So it seems market is losing momentum with every uptick and for it to cross above 6300 looks unlikely with such weak momentum. However, as the current pattern can be a Wedge shaped (Ending diagonal pattern) there is a possibility of slow corrective rise. Such wedge pattern was last seen on upside during January 2013 when RSI showed 4 strong negative divergences and finally market topped out near 6210 levels. The current formation is seen on hourly scale whereas January 2013 was on daily scale and so the post pattern implication cannot be compared with that. Nevertheless, it is a short term bearish pattern.

As shown on 60 mins chart, wave v is ongoing so far and a close below 6120 will be confirming that short term reversal is in place. Further move below 6040 will provide 2^nd negative confirmation.

In short, the daily close has been negative for consecutive 3^rd day and move below 6040 will open up possibilities for 5700 on downside. The nature of this fall will provide further clues on bigger trend of the market. 

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What is Technical analysis – Predictive and Reactive method? Nifty example

The following article touches upon understanding 2 different methods of technical analysis – a Predictive way and Reactive method.

Nifty had a range bound movement which was enclosed within 6180 and 6220 forming an inside bar. We can see that over past 2 days movement has been sideways on Nifty and Sensex but Midcap and Smallcap sectors have managed to form strong positive candles during this period. The advance decline ratio also continued to be healthy and the overall breadth had been positive during this period.

Nifty 60 mins chart:

On daily as well as 60 mins chart, there is a clear higher high and higher low formation. A verybasic technical analysis concept suggests that as long as prices form higher highs and higher lows the trend is positive. Elliott wave is a predictive technique and the other is a reactive technique.

From trading perspective it is better to combine both at times. Using Elliott wave, we currently have 2 probable scenarios. One of these scenarios is shown in above charts and the other remains of a big triangle pattern breakout above …….. on Nifty. The short term trend remains positive even in the above shown wave counts but a breakout from triangle pattern will result into multi-year of Bull Trend. We are still considering both the scenarios as equally probable since prices are not moving up strongly as of now to be a clear impulsive structure nor there is any deterioration in the broader market. It is better to wait for more clues or break of important levels to get a clear confirmation about Elliott wave counts. But till that happens one can completely rely on reactive technique which suggests the trend remains positive as long as prices form higher highs and higher lows atleast on smaller degree charts and an upward sloping blue channel is intact.

In today’s morning Equity research report “The Financial Waves STU” we have not only mentioned about predictive and reactive techniques but also about the important 2 stage confirmation as per Neo wave – Advanced Elliott wave concepts and applied it on Nifty.

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Tata Steel: Trading using Technical analysis, Elliott wave, Channels

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Tata Steel is one of the stock which was underperforming from the start of 2013.

In span of 7 months, it declined from 450 to 190 levels. In this kind of downtrend, it becomes very difficult to catch the reversal at the bottom.

We can see the fall from 450 to 190 was in prescribed channel. One would have made money using this channels resistance and support. However, observing the underperformance from this start of the year in Metal Index as well as Tata Steel, many would have been wrong at the time of major turning point near the level 200. After breaking the downward sloping red channel on upside, stock is continuously outperforming and has made higher high and higher lows. We were accurate in finding out important levels for this stock in an ongoing uptrend.

Below is the chart which was shown in “The Financial Waves STU” on 14^th October 2013.

Anticipated:

Tata Steel Daily chart:

Happened: (started rallying from 15^th October onwards and still moving higher)

Below is the excerpt of daily research report which was published on 14^th October 2013.

As shown in daily chart, the up move from 190 to 320 was in the form of intermediate wave A and then corrected in the form of minor wave w-x-y in intermediate wave B. Wave B corrected in perfect channel and followed resistance and support very well. The move above 320 indicated that intermediate wave C has started on upside. This wave has come near previous high of wave A at 315. Any move above this level will extend wave C towards 345 where C = 61.8% of A.

In short, any move above 320 will infuse buying pressure and stock can move higher towards 345 where next resistance comes. This scenario remains valid as long as 295 is intact on downside.

Along with that we have shown 60 mins chart of Tata Steel where internal wave counts is shown with channeling technique. Currently market is trading at the crucial levels and many beaten down sectors have started to show strength on upside. We are publishing daily equity report before market opens which includes Nifty Daily chart with clear explanation and 3 opportunist stocks. Visit http://wavesstrategy.com/index.php/contact-us.html for more details

Ashish Kyal view on Sensex major trend in Economic Times section of Navbharat Times

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Sensex at crucial juncture! Move above 21200 can lead to start of next BULL TREND!

The below is the English transcript of article by Ashish Kyal, CMT Director of Waves Strategy Advisors in Economic Times section of Navbharat Times.

Indian markets have been moving up amidst all the uncertainty that has come out over past 2 months.The strength we saw in Friday’s trading was led by Banking, IT, Realty and Financial sector. Rally has been observed across all sectors of the Indian Equity market but on a rotational basis.  From positional trading perspective one needs to have long positions on basket of stocks to benefit from overall up move.

Sensex - Price to Earnings and Price to Book ratio suggests Indian markets are not expensive

Sensex PE ratio currently stands near 17 levels. This level is even below the 10 year monthly average of 18. We do not say this indicates that a bottom is near but it does provide a higher conviction that Indian markets are not expensive as many might be thinking.  Sensex Price to Book ratio is astonishingly quoting at the level last seen in 2008 and prior to that in 2003. We have seen sharp rise in this ratio in 2009 as prices increase multifold after forming a very important low. This ratio has again approached near the same level of 2.5.  From fundamental perspective, Price to Book ratio has arrived near 2003 levels and Price to Earnings ratio is also at the level of 2005. So by using these 2 simple parameters we are not seeing the current market as expensive for now but rather cheap on valuation.

Bank Nifty underperformance can continue…

In the rally since September onwards we can see that sectors like IT, Auto, Pharma has continued to outperform whereas Banking sector is still very much below its high made in May 2013. To understand this simple technique is to see Bank Nifty / Nifty ratio analysis. This ratio analysis suggests break of important support on downside which means Bank Nifty can continue itsunderperformance against Nifty for few more months. This does not mean Bank Nifty will give negative returns but means that other sectors or Nifty can continue its outperformance before Banking sector starts to catch up.

Sensex in terms of real money – GOLD suggests it is near very important support

Sensex in terms of INR does not represent how Indian markets have fared in terms of real money. Currency is printed by the country’s central bank, which might not necessarily represent the correct value. It therefore becomes necessary to see how stock market has been doing in terms of real money which is GOLD. Even when actual Sensex recently touched 3 year’s high but many stocks are trading at 52 week’s low. Sensex in Gold and not INR shows that prices are near 2009 low levels.  However, Sensex in Gold has managed to protect 2009 low levels and prices have bounced back from there. This is also suggesting that major trend on upside should start very soon if not already started.

Week ahead: In short, the result season so far has been promising with Infosys followed by many other heavy weight companies beating street expectations. Indian currency also looks to be stabilizing near 60-62 levels. We think the positive sentiments should continue in this week as long as Sensex is able to protect 20400 levels on downside. Further move above 21200 will take Indian markets towards life time highs and will also be first sign of start of major BULL TREND!

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Nifty struggling again near previous important highs!

The below view was published in morning daily research report "The Financial Waves Short term Update" by Waves Strategy Advisors. For different subscription  options and details visit http://wavesstrategy.com/index.php/store.html or http://wavesstrategy.com/

Nifty formed an outside bar near the previous high of 6150 and filled the Gap up opening. Next 2 days is very crucial to determine if short term top is in place!

                                

Nifty daily chart:

Nifty 60 mins chart:

Wave Analysis:

In previous update we mentioned that, “In short, the trend continues to be positive with 6030 as an important support level for short term. Move above 6150 which is the previous high is important and it will also break another resistance level on upside.”

Nifty had a Gap up opening exactly near the previous high it made in mid-September at 6145 levels but failed to sustain there and closed on negative note. It seems that everytime market reaches this level it gets nervous. Even this time prices are showing reversal signs over short term exactly near the previous high. Next 2 days of price action is extremely crucial to determine if the short term trend is reversing to downside.

As shown on the daily chart, prices broke above the black resistance line but closed below it. The overall breadth also turned negative with Midcap and Smallcap index moving down by more than a percent. From wave perspective the current up move is marked as wave c of wave (B). Wave (B) is forming a zigzag pattern. As per this pattern wave b should not retrace more than 61.8% of wave a and wave c should atleast cross above end of wave a. Both of these criteria are now satisfied and there can be a possibility of reversal. However, looking at the lower degree chart there is a possibility that one minor push on upside is still pending. The deciding factor will be 6040 level on downside. A move below this level will be first indication that an important top might be in place whereas if prices again manage to cross above 6150 then the current leg will extend further on upside.

On larger time frame, 6200 is a very important level on upside. A move above this level with increase in overall momentum, breadth and broader participation is required for confirming if the larger trend on upside is beginning. Failure to do that we will keep the above shown counts as preferred.

In short, Indian markets have now arrived at very crucial juncture. A move above Tuesday’s high is necessary for uptrend to resume whereas any move back below 6040 will be first sign of weakness. Volumes have been above average on Tuesday and let us see how it behaves over next few days along with price movement. Existing long positions continue to use 6040 as crucial stop level on downside.

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Tips on Nifty, TCS, RIL by Ashish Kyal of Waves Strategy on Zee Business

Tips on Nifty, TCS, RIL by Ashish Kyal of Waves Strategy Advisors on Zee Business. For more information on various research reports and advisory on equity, commodity, currency visit www.wavesstrategy.com

How to trade Reliance Industries post Q2 results?

Results Update: Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL),controlled by Mukesh Ambani, India's richest man, reported better-than-expected results in the second quarter.

RIL's net profit in the quarter ended September 30, 2013, rose 1.5 per cent to Rs. 5,490 crore from a year earlier, slightly better than estimates of Rs. 5,440 crore. RIL's revenue in the second quarter also beat analyst expectations. RIL said its second quarter rose 14.2 per cent to Rs. 106,523 crore, against expectations of Rs. 102,320 crore.

Reliance Industries stock prices had a Gap up opening near 898, but the stock has pulled down from there and is now quoting with less than a percentage gain. Trading simply based on news or result announcement can be very tricky. If you do not have access to management meets, you are not an expert fundamentalist with sophisticated excel models, know how of the industry sector, you might just be as good as others. Even people having all the mentioned things still cannot know what the stock price is going to be for the day. Technical analysis and Elliott wave principle is the key to look at price patterns and forecast the future objectively.

Below we have shown long term charts of RIL published in the monthly report – The Financial Waves

Figure 11: Reliance Industries Weekly chart

Reliance Industries is one of the highest volume traded stocks on NSE. This stock carries 9.34%weightage on index and carries 3^rd highest market capitalization. We have shown Reliance industries weekly chart, since 1984 prices are moving higher by taking support and resistance of the upward sloping equidistant channel.

In the year 1998 prices found support of the channel, breached six years consolidation (1991-1998) on upside and ended primary wave II near 35 and started next leg on upside in the form of primary wave III.  Interesting observation is that Sensex has completed primary wave II in the year 2000, whereas, Reliance industries ended primary wave II in the year 1998. This shows thatReliance industries has started the impulsive move earlier than Sensex.

….weeks bottoming cycle is working well since 1985 onwards. All the major …….are made near this cycle. This confirms and synergizes that intermediate wave ……… bottom formation is plausible in

After completing current wave, we expect stock should resume the major uptrend indicating nextBULL RUN towards ………… levels.

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Sensex at crucial juncture! Is this the start of next BULL TREND?

Bottom Line: Sensex again reached near the previous highs of 20700 made in September 2013. It is on the verge of long term trend changing level!!!

Indian markets have been moving up amidst all the negative news that has come out over past 2 months. The monthly chart clearly reflects this movement. A simple bar technique shows that prices have so far made higher highs and higher lows which is the basics of technical analysis and yet the most powerful technique to determine the direction of the trend.

In today’s morning research report “The Financial Waves Short term update” we have shown 4 different time frame charts – Monthly, Daily, 60 mins, 10 mins to determine the trend right from long term to medium term to short term and explained how at times it is imperative to see all the degrees whether you are an intraday trader or long term investor.

Here in this article we are showing just 1 chart of major index with wave counts purposely removed that are shown in actual report.

Sensex Monthly chart:

Wave Analysis:

In previous update we mentioned that, “Existing position should trail stop towards 5950 levels and if Nifty has a Gap up opening the same should be trailed towards 5980. In short, we continue to be…... A move above ……………. will form higher highs and higher lows even on the daily degree and Sensex will again be on the verge of an upside breakout!”

We have been bullish on Nifty as soon as it took out 5650 level. In 11^th September 2013 research we mentioned “We have seen a Gap up move as soon as this correction got complete and not only Nifty many of the stocks have shown inverse Head & Shoulder reversal pattern at the bottom. First target for this pattern is near 5850 – 5900 levels.”

Even on 4^th October 2013 we mentioned that “On one higher degree, the move up from 5400 to 6150 took approximately 10 days and so far prices have already consumed 9 days and has retraced only 50% of this up move. This concept suggests the medium term up trend that started from 5400 is still intact and a move above ………. will form a classical higher high and higher low formation even on daily scale.”

In today’s morning research before market opened we published the above shown monthly chart along with detailed explanation on daily, 60 mins and 10 mins degree.

Rotational rally:The strength we saw in Friday’s trading was led by Banking, IT and Capital Goods sector whereas high beta sectors took a break. This pattern again fitted very well with the overall ongoing rotational rally concept.

Sensex - Price to Earnings and Price to Book ratio:

Figure 2

From fundamental perspective, Price to Book ratio has arrived near 2003 levels and Price to Earnings ratio is also at the level of 2005. So by using these 2 simple parameters we are not seeing the current market as expensive for now but rather cheap on valuation. There is lot of other parameters apart from these 2 that goes for fundamental justification… The above chart is picked up from “The Financial Waves Monthly update”.

Conclusion: …….. we want our readers to be unbiased and look at this objectively rather than acting subconsciously and not accepting the probability of a possible ……… formation as well. We do not have preference of one scenario over other but we are close to getting that confirmation.Sensex has arrived very close to confirming the start of next BULL TREND but let us wait for the mentioned important level to be broken on upside for confirmation!

For various subscription options and more details about equity research report published on daily basis before market opens that has Sensex / Nifty as well as 3 different stocks with Applied Elliott waves visit the pricing page at http://wavesstrategy.com/index.php/store.html or contact us on +91 9920422202 / +91 28831358 or write to us at helpdesk@Wavesstrategy.com

Infosys rallies over 7% post Q2 results but it was predictable using “Technical analysis”

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Infosys rallies over 7% post Q2 results; hits highest level since Jan 2011. 

Infosys Ltd rallied a little over 7 per cent in morning trade on Friday to touch its highest level since January 2011 of Rs 3,360, after the software exporter raised the lower-end of its fiscal 2014 dollar revenue growth guidance.

For many trading on Infosys might be a wild guess on result day as the stock has moved previously anywhere from -15% to +15% after the results were declared. But using technical analsysis and Elliott wave concept it is possible to determine the direction and targets for the stock.

In today’s morning report also we mentioned that

“We are expecting Infosys to give an upside move towards 3500 levels given the fact that it has managed to sustain above the 3000 strong resistance level which will now be a very important support. Infosys result day iseverytime eventful with more than 10% movement but this time we are expecting this stock to show relatively non euphoric movement and prices can move in a range of + 5% to 7%.” Infosys is currently up by 5% and touched 7% high levels exactly within the range.

We did not use any fundamental values to predict this but just stock price and our tool of Elliott wave analysis. Read below, we have published on 9^th October the below chart of Infosys along with upside targets and justification in our daily research “The Financial Waves Short term update”.

Infosys Weekly chart:

 Infosys Daily chart:

Wave Analysis:

The following was published on 9^th October morning report: As shown in weekly chart of Infosys, prices started uptrend from 1000 levels in start of 2009 and moved higher till 3500 in the end of 2010. After that stock started moving in the range of 3000 and 2050 since 2011. Recently, we have witnessed that the stock has managed to cross above 3000 level and is sustaining there. ………..looking at the wave perspective there is a possibility that we might see sucha move on upside.

As shown on the daily and 120 mins chart, after sharp move from 2150 to 3100 prices are moving in a sideways consolidation over past few days which seems to be wave iv. The current up move looks impulsive with 1 leg pending on upside.

Option strategy:From option trading perspective, many traders have been buying out of money calls and puts for this stock in anticipation for large moves on result day. However, looking at the option premium for both calls and puts we have our doubts how beneficial this strategy would be just in case results and forecasts come in lines with expectations that will drastically reduce the option value.

In short, our bias on Infosys is positive and we can expect a move towards 3400 in form of wave v.

All of the above was published 2 days back i.e. in morning research of 9^th October. This is a proof of why we say Technical analysis and Elliott wave theory makes market predictable and gives probable path.

To know our view on Nifty and why we have been bullish all the while when majority have been on opposite side subscribe to the daily research report “The Financial Waves short term update”  and you will have your answers. This can be the beginning for Indian market and do not miss the next big opportunity which looks highly probable. For subscription visit http://wavesstrategy.com/index.php/store.html or call us on +91 9920422202 or write to us at helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com