Is Crude really headed towards sub $70? Or is it time to take a break from short positions?

Crude has been in news for many weeks now after the sharp fall from $108 mark to current levels near $80. 

Now many traders are betting that it will head below $70 exactly at the wrong time. We have our doubts and the studies are indicating otherwise.

The blame is now put on OPEC for not taking corrective steps and keeping supply under check. But we believe it is more due to reduction in demand globally rather than supply pressure. Also it is only after the sustained selloff that fundamental news start kicking in to justify the trend. For a trader it is important to know the trend before rather than betting on news which is always later!

Now see the below chart of Crude and see for yourself why we think the downfall is in matured stage:

MCX Crude daily chart:

Below is the excerpt from “The Commodity waves short term update” published on daily basis in morning.

Crude has continued to trade with loss of momentum on downside. Many of the analysts and traders have started believing that Nymex Crude is going to drift towards $70 mark. However we beg to differ and think that Crude is in matured stage of down move and reversal should happen soon on upside. There are series of positive divergences but prices are yet to confirm. Move above $85 will be strong positive confirmation that the trend has reversed on upside.

Similarly, for MCX Crude the support is now at 4900 levels. Prices are simply drifting with loss of momentum and RSI is showing strong positive divergence. This increases the odds that we can see an upside reversal from here. However, positive price confirmation will be obtained only above 5120 levels.

In short, Crude is now at crucial juncture. Break above …………

It is also important to look at the short term hourly chart along with daily chart to understand the key reversal areas. To know more subscribe now to this daily research report and see yourself where is Gold, Silver, Crude and Copper are headed from here. Most commodities are now at very important levels. Do not miss the next big trend which might be about to emerge. For more details visit the http://www.wavesstrategy.com/index.php/store.html  or Contact us at +91 22 28831358 / +91 9920422202

How to trade Silver using Elliott wave pattern?

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Silver daily movement can look very tricky especially when it is trading in a range. But if we apply simple technical analysis method like support and resistance zone along with Elliott wave pattern the chart makes all the more sense and provides high conviction trade setup.

Now look at below Silver 60 mins chart with no markings. This looks like a random movement.

Silver 60 mins chart:

Now look at Silver chart below along with marked Support and Resistance zone and Elliott wave counts. This current ongoing pattern is double Flat corrective pattern where first Flat correction is connected to the 2^nd Flat corrective pattern with wave x in between. To get more clarity apply an indicator say RSI and see the support and resistance zone for this indicator itself.

MCX Silver 60 mins chart :( March Contract)

Wave analysis:

In the morning report of “The Commodity Waves STU” which is a daily research report covering Gold, Silver, Crude, Copper we published the following:

For MCX Silver in yesterdays update we mentioned that, “any move below 44350 will continue the down move towards 43800/43700 where support is placed.”

As expected, after breaking the support of 44350, price quickly moved lower till 43600. Now, same as Gold, MCX Silver prices have arrived near the support level from where it has bounced back many times.

As shown in 60 mins chart, in yesterday’s trading session prices arrived near the support of horizontal line and consolidated for 6 hours. Opposite to Gold, the fall from 45500 to 43600 look impulsive in nature. Now, to continue the down move it is imperative for prices to move below the important support...

So what should be trading strategy from here on and the probable direction of breakout? To know the answer you can subscribe to “The Commodity Waves Short term update” by visiting http://wavesstrategy.com/index.php/store.html and receive daily research report with charts and explanation. What more? If you have any doubts with respect to research report get in touch with us via email or on messenger and we will be keen to clarify it asap. Do not miss the next trending move that looks to have started across commodities. You can also subscribe for intraday and positional advisory and get the research reports absolutely FREE!