By Waves Strategy Advisors. For daily subscription details visit www.wavesstrategy.com
On 16th August 2013, Nifty and Sensex registered one of the biggest falls last seen during the bear market of 2008.
Sensex 69 days topping cycle coincided exactly with 16th August, the day of big fall!
Sensex Time Cycles:
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Sensex 69 days topping cycle: The fall of last Friday, coincided exactly with 69 days Sensex topping cycle. We have been showing this cycle since past few quarters and this time prices turned exactly on cycle day. However, the short term indicators and price action 2 days prior to 16th August did not suggest that the turn is near. Prices closed near day’s high on 13th and 14th August and did not retrace even 50%. Cluster of evidences definitely provides more weightage to Time cycles and its importance. Also the fall was so steep that the reaction time was extremely less for a trader to act in non impulsive fashion. Nevertheless we will be closely observing this topping cycle and its next date is now near 19th November 2013.
Nifty 60 mins chart:
Elliott wave counts are purposely removed from above charts shown in daily morning reports.
Over past 3 days we have been constantly mentioning, “In short, 5480-5500 continues to be important level to watch on upside.
Also as previously mentioned the down move from 5500 to 5268 took 9 bars and prices consumed total of 11 bars so far and is still not able to take out the level of 5500 which indicates that the trend still continues to be negative. In the entire fall from 6100 not a single swing or wave is taken out in faster time on upside. This one simple technique is sufficient to indicate that the trend remains negative. However during down moves there will always be minor corrections on upside which is happening currently.
In today’s morning “The Financial Waves Short term update” we mentioned over short term, 5500-5550 will act as an important resistance zone. Slower retracement, Bollinger Bands®, Elliott wave counts and falling channel suggests limitation on upside.
In short, move below ……………. will provide the negative price confirmation and confirms the end of correction on upside and resume the downtrend towards …………. levels.
For many the intuitive feeling is this is extreme but it is markets that decide the extremities and not individuals. It therefore becomes imperative to use objective tools like Elliott waves, Bollinger Bands, Channels, Time cycles that helps to understand what is the major trend of the market and why the current market is sell on rallies mode. “The Financial Waves” daily research report applies this techniques on daily basis on Nifty and 3 stocks. For subscription visit http://wavesstrategy.com/index.php/store.html
Useful for: Trading Nifty and Sensex, Positional traders, Research reports, Elliottician, Learn technical analysis
Related to: Elliott waves, Bollinger Bands, Time Cycles, Channels, RSI, Support, Resistance, Technical analysis
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