USDINR moved exactly as anticipated six months back!

Anticipated on 16th May 2011: This chart was published in our Currency short term update during times of extreme optimism towards Rupee outperformance to USD but we were expecting a move up towards 52.

USDINR Anticipated on 16th May 2011:

Happened:

We mentioned before on 16th May 2011, “The weekly chart of USDINR shown above is picked up from our currency report publication where our currency analysts predicts movement of Indian Rupee against various currencies like USD, GBP, JPY & Euro. Looking at those charts and USDINR above it is mentioned that there can be some serious depreciation in Indian Rupee against USD. We can clearly see the Elliott wave markings on the chart and prices have formed Triple bottom at exactly 61.8% retracement of rally from 39 to 52 levels. The downward move is also overlapping and we can see a strong positive RSI divergence on weekly scale.

All this indicates USDINR should now start moving up and break the downward trendline. A break above 45.10 will provide strong confirmation that we might have ended multi-month down move on USDINR.

This also sends across bearish picture for Indian equities. We do concur that currency and equities do not move in lock step but the correlation does increases at major turning points.”

Currently USDINR has completed 5 waves up from the bottom at 44 to 52 levels and shall now correct the entire up move. However we might have completed just wave i of 5 and are in wave ii of 5. Either ways the short term trend points downwards. Subscribe to Forex alternate day report by Waves Capital to see where current wave is headed or write to us on helpdesk@wavescapital.com