Sunday, June 12, 2011

Nifty moved down as anticipated!

Nifty daily chart:

Nifty 20 mins:

Cycle Analysis: Nifty daily chart shows that 15 days cycle is currently active and is very accurate for predicting the lows. We still have around 2 days left for this bigger cycle to turn up suggesting that we might continue to consolidate or drift lower. ROC shown in red color also suggests support is not in yet. Nifty has been moving in a complex wave formation as shown. The intraday chart shown below helps to understand the shorter term wave structure.
Nifty 20 mins chart, shows that we moved up in 5 waves from 5330 to 5600 and then moving down making a 3 wave structure. The prices now took strong support near 5460 which is also a 50% retracement level and turned. 5460 is also previous 4th wave support that we have marked when down move started. 5430 should act as a last support and a decisive move below it will increase the odds that we might head below 5330.
Any move back above 5540 will be strong positive confirmation that the next leg up has started. We will currently wait for 5540 to be taken out for positive breakout or a move below 5430 will raise the odds that we are heading lower. Let us see what market wants to communicate in next 1 or 2 days. It will be crucial to observe!

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