Monday, April 11, 2011

Nifty correcting the steep rally!

Nifty 120 mins

Nifty 10 mins

As seen on 120 mins chart Nifty has so far moved up only in the 3 waves formation. Prices were moving in sideways consolidation – a typical action in wave iv but started drifting down in later part of the day on Friday. The 23.6% retracement level of the entire move up from 5350 to 5925 comes around 5780 – 5790 levels. This level also marks the zone of previous 4th wave of minute degree and so should act as a good support level.

As seen on 10 mins chart we can see 5780 level clearly as a support zone. MACD has also moved down below the 0 level over short term.

We are showing an alternate wave count on 120 mins chart marked in red at the bottom of the chart. This wave count suggest the current move up as only 3 wave formation and we have completed wave X and are ready to move down below previous low of 5200. This remains a lower probability scenario as of now. A move below 5600 will create an overlapping structure with previous wave i and this will force us to adopt this alternative. As long as 5600 level is intact we will treat this as a minor degree wave iv correction which can end near 5750 – 5780 level.

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