Given the strength in Nifty over last week we have adopted Alternate sceanrio 2 as preferred. Friday's fall has taken many by surprise but it no where confirms that the major trend which for now is down has resumed. We are still in wave X and the trend still remains up over short term and any steep movement down from here below 5370 - 5400, we will know that major down trend has resumed and wave X up is over.
Corrective Waves B and X are very difficult to trade and are very much unpredictable. One should recharge the emotions for tough times ahead if this indeed is wave X since they are very tough to trade. As seen on Friday, Prices were in an uptrend in morning and suddenly turned down without giving any warning signs. That is what happens in waves B and X. We are assuming that a simple corrective pattern is developing upwards but we would like you to be cautious at the same time!
We are expecting minor uptrend to start again soon confirmation of which is obtained above 5495 but a deeper correction below 5370 - 5400 will mean major downward trend has resumed.
A move from 5800 on 14-01-2011 to 5180 on 11-02-2011 took around 24 days. if one considers it as wave iii then by logics of neowaves wave iv should take more that that so by many means this should be a pull back down and upmove should resume. my prefered view is we should get 5800 as wave 2 after extended wave 1.
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