Begining of a major correction???

Explanation

Prices fall below 15000 making it imperative to adopt our alternate view as preferred
We can see RSI is very weak, it failed to even cross above 65 mark
As shown in previous blogs we have negative divergences in many of the indicators
Our first target on downside is 14200 where wave (1 or a) = wave (3 or c)

Alternate

The alternate wave count treats this as an Expanded flat correction but the short term trend still remains down

If prices move back above 16000 we will review

Reliance

Short Reliance at current price but with Strict stop loss of 2100. First target is 1880.

Hindalco: A good Sell!

Hindalco: A very good inverse co-relation with Dollar index (DXY). DXY looks to have hit a major bottom. DXY shall turn up anytime soon and this will have bearish effect on Hindalco. Also the elliott countings are not showing good signals. OBV aand RSI shows negative divergence. Risk reward ratio looks acceptable.

Warning: Gann, Time cycles, OBV, Advance decline - Strong Divergence

All indicators are showing very strong negative or bearish divergence. Please be careful if you are long. My earnest advise: "Sell now and buy later". There will always be an opportunity to buy later even if we are wrong now!

Wait and Watch!

Alternate Count

Explanation
Today's fall was very steep, Sensex fall more than 400 points from its high in less than 15 mins
This can be wave (ii) of (3) but the fall look more impulsive than corrective
Important level to observe is 15,000. If Sensex breaks this level it will negate our preferred positive view and will point towards major downward correction
This can be the correction of entire up wave that started in March
15000 level is only 500 points away from current levels and Mr. Market will convey us its direction very soon

Rally continues but with slow momentum

Explanation
The momentum is slowing down but we still have wave (3) and wave (5) of [5] to complete
We are looking at around 17000 for the rally from March to complete
Volumes are low and rally is loosing steam are all signs of 5th wave in progression
One can go long with strict stop loss at 15000. The best of rally is behind us
Nifty should have a target of 5100
The only concern is Dollar index (DXY) looks to be forming a bottom near 77 range
Reversal in dollar will pull down commodities and that will have adverse effects on global equity markets