Combining Daryl Guppy & Elliott wave to Nifty on a Budget Day!

Combining Daryl Guppy & Elliott wave to Nifty

By Waves Strategy Advisors. For more information visit www.wavesstrategy.com. To subscribe write to helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com or call us on +91 22 28831358 / +91 9920422202 

As the country awaits the verdict on the Union Budget, what can happen to the markets on budget day?

Indian equities market had been in correction mode from past few weeks. Every time on the day of Budget there has been increase in intraday volatility but the closing isalways important. Events can produce short term spikes or change of trend but that will be only momentarily.

We have always been saying that we should trade objectively and not subjectively and on this day also we would suggest that budget can produce short term volatility but closing will be important.

Our today’s publication of “The Financial Waves” comprises one interesting analysis of Daryl Guppy Moving average method.

Daryl Guppy Moving average method is very interesting to watch. This method uses a cluster of short term moving averages and cluster of long term moving averages.

Nifty: Daryl Guppy View and Elliott Wave Daily chart

We have shown Daryl Guppy Moving average method last time in October when the trend was firmly positive. Currently this method is indicating towards strong negative trend. Daryl Guppy Moving average method is very interesting to watch. This method uses a cluster of short term moving averages and cluster of long term moving averages. Whenever all the short term moving averages move above each and every long term moving average one can initiate long position and whenever each and every short term moving average moves below all long term moving averages, a short can be initiated as it indicates reversal in trend.

Nifty above chart shows that since June 2012 all the short term moving average has managed to stay above all the long term moving averages. Currently we can see a strong reversal and after many months all short term moving averages have almost crossed below the long term averages. This confirms to our Elliott wave counts and the trend remains negative as per Daryl Guppy method.

To know what we expect next in Equity market write to us at helpdesk@wavesstrategy.comor call us on +91 9920422202/ 28831358

By Waves Strategy Advisors. For more information visit www.wavesstrategy.com. To subscribe write to helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com or call us on +91 22 28831358 / +91 9920422202

Nifty in a strong downtrend as expected!!!

The following was published in morning on 25^th February 2013 in “The Financial Waves” equity research report by Waves Strategy Advisors. This report is published daily. To subscribe write to helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com  or call on +91 9920422202 or visit www.wavesstrategy.com

Bottom Line: Nifty failed to give any meaningful bounce after the strong selloff on Thursday. USDINR also looks to have started next trend on upside.

Nifty Daily chart:

Nifty 60 mins chart:

  

Wave Analysis:

We mentioned in previous update, “In short, the trend remains firmly negative for next support coming near 5600 as long as yesterday’s high of 5920 remains intact. Prices can move very fast and avoid creating any long positions unless prices prove us otherwise by breaking above important resistance levels. Enjoy the fire crackers as long as it lasts!”

Nifty moved in a narrow range between 5835 and 5874 on Friday. Prices did not give any deeper retracement after strong fall on 21^st February. As shown on daily chart, we will continue to be bearish as long as prices manages to stay below 20 days Exponential moving average as this has acted as very important support before and now acting as a strong resistance. Also as shown prices have closed below the support of grey trendline that connected previous wave 3 high. Below 5830 the next support directly comes near 5650 levels.

As shown on 60 mins chart, prices consolidated on Friday in flag type formation to digest the fall the previous day. Prices have again closed below the previous pivot low marked as wave (x). X points are important turning levels and as prices have managed to close below it we can expect down move to continue. However move below Friday’s low of 5836 will confirm the resumption within the blue channel as shown.

From wave perspective, we have removed the A-B-C count shown previously since in a zigzag correction wave A should have 5 waves and in a Flat correction wave B should retrace atleast 61.8% of wave A. In current scenario neither is valid as wave A is corrective and wave B has retraced only 38.2% of wave A. This means that prices are moving in a complex correction involving X waves as shown.

As mentioned above currency should also move in sync with equity markets i.e. USDINR should start trending on upside with the current down leg on Nifty. We can see increase in volatility in current week.

In short, our bias remains firmly negative as long as 5920 is intact on upside for a move towards 5650 – 5600. Move below 5830 on downside can result into strong increase in selling pressure.

To know what is next subscribe to "The Financial Waves". write to helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com  or call on +91 9920422202 or visit www.wavesstrategy.com

Nifty: Elliott wave analysis suggests next strong trend has started!!!

Nifty: Elliott wave analysis suggests next strong trend has started!!!

By Waves Strategy Advisors, For more information visit www.wavesstrategy.com or write to helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com

The fall of almost 100 points on Nifty yesterday might be a surprise to many but not to our readers as we made them aware of such scenario – infact the very prior day.

Read yourself what was mentioned in “The Financial Waves” research report on 21^st February 2013 before equity markets opened in morning.

“An earnest advise to our readers is to trade in direction of trend and to follow strict stop loss methods in case trading is done against the major trend. A classic example is of Gold and Silver. Prices have been falling for more than a week and every rise has been short lived. We have been constantly mentioning this in our Commodity report and yesterday Gold and Silver prices were down by more than 2% & 3% respectively at one point of time. This simply shows that during powerful trends prices do not give respect to support levels. Human psychology work exactly the opposite way and we have a tendency to catch reversals. Similarly, Nifty for many months has moved within narrow range and has not given a strong trend in single direction. There will be tendency to catch reversals but if a strong trend on downside starts then we can expect a similar scenario can develop. A move of 100 points on Nifty which has now become a passé can be expected again. Time is running out for post pattern wedge implication i.e. prices should reach near …….. levels in next ………. days or less…”

Nifty 20 mins chart:

Nifty had a fall of almost a century yesterday after a long time. Prices made a low of 5844 and closed near it thereby forming a big red bar on downside. We mentioned in yesterday’s report itself that the fall of 100 points which has not been seen for quite sometime can be expected again and Nifty vindicated this in yesterday’s trading itself.

Prices reversed from 20 days Exponential moving average and the trend now remains firmly negative. We can now expect a move towards ………. very quickly

The selloff this time is not localized but is witnessed across the globe. Commodities including precious metals have been the first to start the fall, followed by base metals, rally in Dollar index and fall in major world equity markets by more than 1.5% yesterday. Such synchronized fall normally last long and result in strong trending moves. However, it is too soon to comment if the world markets have started collapsing before crucial levels are broken. Next few days of price action will provide vital information on world freely traded markets whether it is Equity, Commodity or Currency.

In short, Nifty can move towards ……………

Such trending opportunities do not come quite often. Do not miss the BIG move that we are expecting. Trade systematically and objectively using prudent risk management levels. For more information on how to subscribe write to us at helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com or call on +91 9920422202 / +91 22 28831358. For more information visit www.wavesstrategy.com

Nifty up move is corrective, major trend remains down – Don’t miss another BIG opportunity!!!

Nifty up move is corrective, major trend remains down – Don’t miss another BIG opportunity!!!

By Waves Strategy Advisors. For more information visit www.wavesstrategy.com. To subscribe to daily research report write to helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com or call on +91 9920422202.

Indian markets might be challenging from trading perspective and there are high chances to get carried away with News all around.

But for a technical analyst and Elliott wave follower markets have been moving exactly as expected.Read below to see yourself how we have been capturing each and every move on Nifty.

Nifty 60 mins chart:

Wave counts are purposely not shown as they are meant for our paid clients.

The following excerpt is picked up from daily Equity report published before markets open:

Nifty continued to protect the level of 5880 and made a low of 5883 on intraday. Prices were trading relatively flat for most part of the day but started showing strength during final hour of trading. Nifty managed to rally by more than 40 points during last half hour of trading and closed at day’s high.

Looking at the strength of up move, chances are high that Wave ….. is probably over at the low of …….. level and prices have started the upside correction which can go towards …….. However wave x are the points which are difficult to cross and so we can see some resistance coming near 5970 levels.

Nifty made a high of 5971 during opening hours today morning exactly near the first resistance we mentioned…..

There is more to it. We have shown high beta sector – NSE Midcap index as well in today’s morning report that simply shows what has happened to broader markets and what is expected over coming days…

Do not miss the next BIG opportunity in Indian Markets. The move down from 6110 to 5850 was just one leg of down move. More waves are left which can be sharp and fast. To know what are the important turning points and maximum level that Nifty can reach in current minor up move subscribe to the daily research report “The Financial Waves”

For more information write to us at helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com or call us on 9920422202.

Learn and Trade objectively! Equip yourself with necessary technical tools…

Take an informed decision and get equipped with technical tools as well as Elliott wave which are extremely important for knowing where the markets will head next.

Do not act simply on what others say but also have the thrilling experience when your forecast is very accurate and sometimes to the point…

From past few weeks we have been very precise in capturing the movement of Equity, Commodity and Currency markets. Now, our trading course on Elliott Wave will teach you how to identify and trade those opportunities.

Whether you are Intraday or Positional trader or investor investing in stocks, commodities orforex, futures or options – you get a practical trading education that you can apply immediately.

We had been continuously mentioning that Nifty can make a top at around 6050-6120 and precisely Nifty had made a top at 6112. To many the current down move in Indian equity markets might be a surprise but not to our subscribers as they were expecting strong reversal to downside and we mentioned the support at 5585 levels.

Also in Commodity markets we had captured the down movement in Comex Gold from 1670 to 1597 levels as well as MCX Gold, MCX Silver and MCX Copper.

In Currency markets, when many analysts were expecting a down move towards 49 – 50 levels we had an opposite view and expected a bottom near 53 – 53.50 levels. USDINR has given due respect to those levels and bounced back from there.  The pair made a high of 54.48 in today’s future contract in just few days.

Case in point: It is plausible to forecast freely traded markets with high accuracy but provided you have the understanding of necessary technical tools. Register yourself for the 2 days training session and learn the practical way of applying Elliott wave analysis. The course is conducted byAshish Kyal who is a Chartered Market Technician and frequently speaks on CNBC TV18. Ashishhas been providing training at number of management colleges, financial seminars, National Institute of Bank Management (NIBM) to name a few…

Schedule for Technical analysis and applying Elliott Wave Session in Mumbai is as follows:      

Date	Timings
23rd February 2013- Saturday	10:00 am – 04:00 pm
24rd February 2013- Sunday	10:00 am - 04:00 pm

Do not get carried away in the euphoria but think objectively using technical tools and Learn & Trade with no subjectivity!!!

For registering write to us at helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com or call us on +91 9920422202 / +91 22 28831358. For more information visit www.wavesstrategy.com

News stories do not change the trend!

News stories do not change the trend!

By Waves Strategy Advisors, For more information visit www.wavesstrategy.com or write to us at helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com to subscribe to daily research report on Equity, Commodity and Currency.

News stories don't change the trend -- only the collective social mood of market participants has that power.

12^th February 2013:

Hindustan Times: Economic recovery hopes dashed as IIP data dips. India's industrial production unexpectedly shrank for a second straight month in December, weighed down by weak investment and consumer demand. The index of industrial production (IIP) fell 0.6%. Manufacturing output, which accounts for the bulk of industrial production and contributes about 15% to overall gross domestic product (GDP), fell 0.7% in December from a year earlier.

Above data was bearish news for the Indian Equity market. However, after the announcement we have observed one spike on hourly chart on downside, thereafter prices recovered and closed near day’s high which is shown below in hourly chart.

14th February 2013:

(Reuters) - India's annual wholesale price inflation slowed to 6.62 percent in January, government data showed on Thursday, 7.0 percent below expected in a Reuters poll of economists.

Above data was bullish from the market perspective and pries should moved higher. But Indian equity markets reacted exactly in opposite way and prices closed near day’s low marked by circle in the hourly chart.

Nifty hourly chart:

We have always mentioned that news do not drive major trends of the markets but can produce short term spikes or trends that lasts for few minutes or hours or probably a bit longer. However, markets move in predictable fashion and Elliott wave theory along with Momentum indicators, Channels and other technical tools… helps us to be placed in right direction.

So do not try to act on news but try to capture the trends and recognize the patterns that will provide logical and objective way to trade.

To know more about Elliott wave counts on Nifty and other equity stocks subscribe to “The Financial Waves” (equity report) published on daily basis. For subscribing write to us at helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com or call on +91 9920422202

Nifty can have short term pull back!

Nifty failed to sustain near 5970 levels but broke above the downward sloping trendline even on daily chart.

Nifty Daily chart:

Nifty 60 mins chart:

Wave Analysis:

We mentioned in previous update, “It will be important to see if prices can sustain above 5940 – 5960 resistance zone to conclude that the short term pull back of the down move from 6110 to 5880 has started. In short, we are closely observing how prices react from 5940 – 5960 levels if it reaches there and the bias continues to be negative as long as these levels are not taken out on upside.”

Nifty had a gap up opening near 5940 levels and managed to sustain the gap during first half of the session. However, prices made a high of 5970 which is the 38.2% retracement of the down move from 6110 to 5880 levels and reversed from there. Failure of prices to sustain the gap up opening confirms that the up move from 5880 is corrective in nature.

As shown on daily chart, prices have now decisively broken above the downward sloping trendline and managed to form higher high and higher low compared to previous bar and also managed to close above previous high which was at 5928. A close above previous day’s high has happened after 10 daily bars. This confirms that prices have now started the upside correction of the down move from 6110 to 5880.

As shown on 60 mins chart, a sharp up move which is quickly retraced is normally seen in triangle formation and so one can expect sideways consolidation between 5970 and 5880 levels over next 1 to 2 days. We are also applying Bollinger Bands in current scenario as sideways action is plausible and Bollinger Bands works very well during such scenarios.   

Midcap and Smallcap indices closed negative and breadth continued to be negative. Any improvement in overall breadth will further confirm the upside correction.

In short, as long as 5880 and 5970 is intact on both sides one can expect sideways movement in Nifty over next few days. Move above 5970 can result into an upside correction towards 6055 which is 76.4% retracement level of the entire down move. Only a break of 5880 level on downside will confirm resumption of downtrend towards 5600 else expect some pullback before we reach towards 5600!

To subscribe to this daily research report "The Financial Waves" write to us at helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com or call on +91 9920422202. For more information visit www.wavesstrategy.com

REVISITED: Nifty path ahead and an upcoming Tsunami!

REVISITED: Nifty path ahead and an upcoming Tsunami!

By Waves Strategy Advisors, For more information visit www.wavesstrategy.com or write to helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com

To many the current down move in Indian equity markets might be a surprise but not to our subscribers as they were expecting strong reversal to downside.

We published the following article on 11^th January 2013 making a statement as Nifty Upcoming Tsunami… when prices were at 6050 levels… We mentioned on 11th January that "Nifty gave a very important close yesterday that reduces all but 1 most probable scenario. As per the Elliott wave counts chances of Nifty nearing an important top is very high and probably a top for the year 2013.

We published an interim report at 2 pm for our paid subscribers ...., “Nifty has failed to sustain the Gap today and has moved near .…. Positional traders can start booking profits and keep ………..as very important stop for all long positions. There can be one final attempt on upside over next few days towards 6100 - 6120 maximum!”

In 11^th January 2013 morning report we explained what made us make such a bold statement and explained various technical reasons.

All advanced & basic technical tools like Wave counts, momentum indicators, Time cycles, Channels, Fibonacci retracements are in sync and indicating that an intermediate top is very near. We would advise our subscribers to……………"

……..If we are right, time is running out. Do not get carried away in the euphoria but think objectively using technical tools and Learn & Trade with no subjectivity!!!

HAPPENED AS OF TODAY – 8^th February 2013:

In today’s morning report we mentioned to our Equity report subscribers:

Nifty 60 mins chart: published in morning before Equity markets opened:

Published on 8^th February morning before markets opened:Prices touched the upper end of the channel shown on 60 mins chart and reversed from there. This downward sloping channel is working very well which forced us to adopt the corrective counts and not impulsive for current down move as mentioned in previous report. 

The overall breadth continues to be extremely weak with more than 1800 stocks declining against only 950 advances on BSE. Also midcap and smallcap sectors continued the underperformanceagainst Nifty.…… As shown on daily chart prices are now just kissing the 2-4 trendline and a break here can probably result into a quick move towards the next support of 5885. This is the level where wave c = wave a of the second corrective pattern shown on 60 mins chart.

We should eventually start seeing increase in selling pressure and increase in daily range of Nifty which is just 50 points on an average currently!

In short, as long as prices move within the downward sloping channel our bias is negative. Move below the previous day low of 5927 will continue the down move and prices can move lower till the support of 5885 levels.

Happened: At the close on 8^th February 2013:

Happened: At the close on 8^th February 2013: Nifty broke below 5927 level and made a low of 5884

Sensex falls for 7^th consecutive session which is longest losing streak since November 2011

We cannot be more accurate than this. Nifty made a low of 5884 in last 15 mins of trading which is to the point close to the level we mentioned in morning report today itself.

This is not it. There is much more left even now. Do not miss such crucial opportunity in Indian markets when each and every technical tool is perfectly in sync and now INR has also joined the bandwagon.  

Subscribe and see yourself the complete research report which was published today morning and the path ahead for Indian equity markets. There is still lot of steam left in this trending move on downside, see it yourself and be ready to ride the next WAVE! For more information visit www.wavesstrategy.com write to us on helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com or call on +91 9920422202

USDINR: Applying Bollinger Bands® and Elliott Wave counts

USDINR: Applying Bollinger Band and Elliott Wave counts

By Waves Strategy Advisors, For more information visit www.wavesstrategy.com or write to helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com

While majority of broking house and media were thinking USDINR to move below 50 or even below, our view was contradictory as we thought it will not break 53 levels. 

USDINR managed to protect the crucial support of 53 and bounced from this level on 8^th February 2013.

This was only possible with the help of Elliott wave counts and basic technical analysis such as channels, Bollinger Bands, RSI, Fibonacci Retracements etc.

We have applied Bollinger Bands along with Elliott Wave counts to identify that USDINR has probably made an important low at 53.08

The following excerpt is been picked from our alternative publication “The Forex Waves Short term update” where we had mention that USDINR will reverse from current levels.

USDINR Daily Chart: 

Wave Analysis:

As shown above in daily chart of USDINR, we have shown Bollinger Bands, which is working precisely for this pair. Bollinger Bands are self contracting and expanding bands. When there is a less volatility it starts to contract and when volatility is more its starts to expand. Currently prices are quoting at the support of the lower Bollinger Bands, a move above ………….

As per wave perspective, currently prices are moving lower in the form of wave v of wave C. However prices are in very matured stage and should reverse. A move above ……. will start next leg on upside.

In short, USDINR is consolidating at 53-53.20 levels which is a crucial support for this pair.

Indian currency has probably formed a very important reversal today. This not only indicates thatINR should start depreciating but is also in sync with our outlook on Indian equity markets and Nifty direction. Subscribe NOW to “The Forex Waves” and do not miss this important juncture in Indian currency market.

For subscribing to currency research visit www.wavesstrategy.com or write to helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com or call us on +91 9920422202. 

Tips on Crude Ashish Kyal CNBC TV 18 by Waves Strategy Advisors 08th Fe...

Tips on Crude Ashish Kyal CNBC TV 18  by Waves Strategy Advisors 08th Feb. For subscribing to commodity research visit www.wavesstrategy.com or write to helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com...

Tips on Silver Ashish Kyal Waves Strategy Advisors CNBC TV18 7th Feb 2013

Tips on Silver Ashish Kyal Waves Strategy Advisors CNBC TV18 7th Feb 2013. For more information visit www.wavesstrategy.com or write to us on helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com

Market Outlook: An interview with Ashish Kyal, CMT

Market Outlook: An interview with Ashish Kyal, CMT

Current market is not investor's market but a trader's market: Ashish Kyal

In an interview with Varsha Inamdar of Myiris, Ashish Kyal, CMT, director, Waves Strategy Advisors, said that “Indian equity markets are in a very important topping process. Most of the heavy weights have either completed their up move or are going to do so very soon.”

Excerpt from interview Myiris had with Ashish Kyal:

1. How do you see technical outlook on the market?

We use Elliott wave analysis as an important technical tool to forecast the markets and it is suggesting that Indian equity markets are in a very important topping process. Most of the heavy weights have either completed their up move or are going to do so very soon. We expect a top near 6,110 is quite significant and the reversal on the same day of monetary cut itself suggests weakness in the underlying. The overall breadth has also deteriorated significantly over past few weeks.

A stealth bear market has already started with Midcap and Smallcap indices already falling below their important support levels. In short, we expect Nifty to make a top near 6,120 levels which will not be taken out atleast for next 5 to 6 months or probably for the year.

2. Do you see any investment opportunities at present levels?

We do not see current market as investor's market but a trader's market. Investments should be avoided at least in 2013.

3. Technically which sectors look attractive at current levels?

Our view is that when a systematic downtrend starts in the market then even the strongest of the stocks or sectors starts moving sideways if not down. So creating long positions at current levels shall be avoided. However, defensive sectors like FMCG or Pharma can outperform the market during the downtrend but stock selection has to be extremely prudent. Within FMCG - ITC.Dabur looks positive and in Pharma sector - Sun pharma can be a good bet.

4. How do you see corporate earnings for third quarter?

Challenging macro-economic environment for banks/consumer discretionary sectors: Slowing economic growth, slow pick up in credit and loan delinquency, we expect the banking sector results to remain under pressure in 3QFY13. The global environment is still in fragile state and the demand from outside India has not picked up significantly. We expect corporate earnings to be mixed bag with a few companies delivering above expectations results and a few might give poor performance.

5. How do you see the global economic and market outlook?

Global economy does not look to be completely out of the woods. US is still facing issues of high unemployment rate and the fiscal cliff issue is yet to be addressed which is simply being delayed. US has to start increasing the Taxes and cut government spending and reduce other benefits sooner or later. Quantitative easing has still not resulted into economic growth as expected. All this suggests negative outlook for US and other developed economies on long term basis.

However over short term there is too much liquidity pumped into the economy which has led to increase in prices of equity and commodity markets. In short, we expect equity markets to be positive over short term but long term investments should be completely avoided. 

6. Which technical indicators investors should use to screen stocks?

We use Elliott wave to identify the major trends in liquid stocks and indices. Apart from advanced technical concepts some very basic technical tools like channels and simple indicators like Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving Averages can be used to identify the overall trend of the stock. A very simple way is to see if the stock is in an uptrend or downtrend is to see if prices are moving in an upward channel or a downward channel over the period of 6 to 8 months. Other way to screen stocks can also be investing in those that are making new yearly highs since momentum will be highest in those stocks.

To know more about market and insights on Equity, Commodity and Currency Markets write to us at helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com or call us on +91 9920422202 or visit www.wavesstrategy.com