Education: Learn Technical Analysis / Elliott wave trading

Waves Strategy Advisors (www.wavesstrategy.com) conducting a course on technical analysis that will help you learn how to trade using Technical analysis and Elliott wave along with basic indicators which are necessary to be used along with it. The course duration will be approximately 12 hours and is on 6th - 7th October from morning 10:30 onward.

 What you get:

- Learn the practical aspect of Elliott wave

- Understand bias theory and importance of other technical tools necessary to be applied along with Elliott wave

- Learn how to use charting software - Metastock and correct way of looking at market waves

- Get 1 week of free research reports on Equity / Commodity that are published daily to see practical application of wave theory 

Limited seats available, So Hurry up and register your seats now by writing us on helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com or call on +91 9920422202

Nifty: An impulse up move...

The following was published in morning before market opened by Waves Strategy Advisors (www.wavesstrategy.com).You can subscribe to daily publication of this report by writing to helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com  

Bottom Line: Nifty continues to move in a range of 50 points similar to past 3 days…

Nifty Daily chart:

  

Nifty 60 mins chart:

Wave Analysis:

We mentioned in previous update, “In short, any decisive move below 5620 will take prices lower till the next support of 5525 levels. However, move above the previous high of 5720 will resolve the uptrend. Our existing clients could now trail their stop near 5620 levels.”

Nifty had a minor gap up opening on last day of September expiry but prices failed to sustain the up move and closed negative during final trading hours. Prices continued to move in the range of 50 points. Prices have not been doing much during expiry days as seen from past few months. It will be important to see how follow-up day spans out after expiry.

As shown on 60 mins chart, prices have moved up impulsively from the low of 5200 to 5720. We can count wave 5 on upside. However the movement after that has been in a narrow channel which has failed to produce any significant correction on downside and so we do not rule out the possibility that minor wave v of 3 is not yet complete and can extend further towards 5820.

Over short term it is advised to wait for a break of 5720 on upside for resumption of uptrend or the break of low at 5620 to open up possibilities for 5550 – 5525.

There is no sign of exhaustion yet from Midcap or Smallcap sectors and Advance decline continues to be in positive.

In short, the broader market continues to be healthy so far and a move above 5720 will confirm that current minor up leg is extending towards 5820. But we remain little cautious since prices now lie near the upper end of the channel as shown on daily chart.

Crude and Sensex – Inverse correlation a Myth!

 Crude and Sensex – Inverse correlation a Myth! By Waves Strategy Advisors. For more information visit www.wavesstrategy.com

Is there really any inverse correlation between Indian markets and Crude prices???  We are showing Crude (MCX) in INR and Sensex weekly chart which clearly shows how prices of both these asset classes have been moving since July 2008. The chart itself is self explanatory and challenges the logical perceptions of many people who think Crude prices impact Indian stock markets directly and is a culprit for poor performance of Indian equities in 2011.

Crude and Sensex Weekly chart:

We can see that Sensex had started the downtrend in Jan 2008 and Crude joined the party in July 2008. From July 2008 both Sensex and Crude fell in lock step manner and made a low in Feb 2009 “together”.

Since late Feb till November 2010 the rally continued again in a lock step manner and the period of sideways consolidation, from October 2009 to May 2010, had very high correlation. In fact one could have even guessed what Sensex direction would have been during that period by looking at movement of crude.

This period of high correlation continued till November 2010 and Indian markets again lead like in 2009 and started falling prior to Crude. After 4 months of opposite direction, Crude joined the Indian markets down trend in April 2011 and continued to move in sync till October 2011.
In short, we can clearly note there have been more periods of direct correlation between Crude and Sensex and the facts clearly outweighs the common belief / perception of inverse relation between Indian markets and Crude prices.

Contact information:  Email:   helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com Follow us on Linkedin / Facebook / Twitter: Waves Strategy

Tata Motors: Elliott Wave Structure....

Below was published in  "The Financial Waves" report by Waves Strategy Advisors. To subscribe write to helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com or visit www.wavesstrategy.com

Bottom line :Tata motors following Elliott Wave counts very precisely.

Tata Motors Daily chart:

Tata Motors 120 mins chart:

Anticipated on 4^th September 2012:

Happened:

Few wave counts are purposely not shown as they are meant only for our paid clients.

Waves Analysis: 

We have mentioned in the previous report of 4^th September 2012, “prices are moving lower in the form of minute wave (c) of b of B. As long as prices hold the resistance of 235 prices could move down till the next support zone which comes near 225/223 levels. Once this down leg is complete expect a bounce back towards 250 levels”. BANG ON!!!

We have been precise in capturing the Tata Motors steep move from 225-250 levels. Prices exactly bounced back from 225 levels, achieved the mentioned level of 250, thereafter it had a spectacular rally till 290.

As shown above in daily chart of Tata motors, prices have exactly retraced 61.8% of the prior wave A. After violent move on upside we have observe some profit booking in this stock.

From medium term perspective, trend is firmly bullish in Tata Motors.  Before it continues the uptrend we need to wait for prices to complete the one minor leg on downside and then it will continue the uptrend.

From wave perspective it is now tricky to mark the current up move as complete wave c. Wave c should usually be more time consuming and show loss of momentum. But it is lacking that characteristics and so we will wait for prices to break 250 levels for marking the top as wave c. If prices move back above 285 levels it will indicate some other wave structure is developing.

In short, as long as .........

To know the further movement on Tata motors write to us at helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com or call us @ 9920422202

Contact information:  Email:  helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com Follow us on Linkedin / Facebook / Twitter: Waves Strategy

Nifty in next wave up...

Bottom Line: Nifty crossed above the level of 5630 thereby forcing us to adopt alternative scenario for current up leg…

Nifty Daily chart:

  

Nifty 60 mins chart:

Wave Analysis:

We mentioned before,“Nifty daily chart shows that prices have managed to break above the red trendline and close near 5578 level. If this is a valid Ending diagonal pattern then it is known as throwover above the 1-3 trendline. But if prices have another Gap up opening on back of FDI norms and exceed the maximum allowable limit of 5630 then the alternate scenario shown in red will become the preferred one. As per the alternate scenario wave 3 is ongoing and wave 2 ended as a running correction”.

Consecutive for second session Nifty had a gap up opening. It had almost 50 points gap up, prices decisively tookout the high of 5630 and moved higher till 5652 levels. This forces us to adopt the alternative scenario and Wave 2 ended as a running correction and wave 3 is in the play.

Yesterday, RBI announced monetary policy.There was no cut in repo rates exactly as we expected based on the bond yield. Index did react lower from the highs after the announcement but than managed to recover and finally close with 30 points up. The bias continues to be positive but instead of 5^th wave it will now be in the form of 3^rd wave.

Existing long positions for those who have been following our trailing stop method please trail your current positions to 5526. Trailing stop method becomes very effective during strong uptrends and 60 mins chart marks the levels from where we have been mentioning the crucial levels on downside. Market has not broken below any of these levels so far.

The move up has been driven on back of events and gapping actions and creating fresh longs during such environment have been challenging from trading perspective. As long as the channel shown on 60 mins chart is intact the trend remains positive.

The equality of wave 3 to wave 5 is now near 5820 levels. Please understand this does not mean that prices will turn back down from that level but indicates that there can be resistance to the current up move near that zone. Unless the bias turns negative either by break of short term channel or by formation of lower highs and lower lows the trend remains positive.

In the last trading session, after long time we have observed that midcap and small cap stocks rose by 1.15% and 1.13% respectively and became an active participant in this up move.

In short, as index crossed above 5630 yesterday the bias is positive on Nifty and participation from Midcap and Smallcap sectors yesterday shows late improvements in overall health. The bias is now up as long as 5526 is intact on downside over short term.

Nifty: A boost of QE3!!!

The following was published in "The Financial Waves" daily report by Waves Strategy before market opened today... To know what will void the current wave pattern of Ending diagonal and what we expect of RBI monetary policy on Monday Subscribe and see this in next report which will be published on Monday morning. Visit www.wavesstrategy.com or write on helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com to subscribe... 

Bottom Line: A boost of QE3 announced yesterday by FOMC US to give a positive dose to Indian markets as well…

Nifty Daily chart: 

Nifty 60 mins chart:

 Wave Analysis:

We mentioned before, “…Existing long positions shall now trail their stops to 5390 levels. A move below this level will be first negative sign.In short, the bias is cautiously positive as long as 5390 is intact on downside. Watch carefully how prices react from 5450 to 5500 levels.”

A boost of QE3 announced yesterday by FOMC US to give a positive dose to Indian markets as well… QE3 is bond buying program by FED to induce liquidity in the system and give boost to the economy. QE3 of worth $40 billion is worth enough to give atleast short term rally to global equity and commodity markets. After the announcement US markets were up by more than 1.5% and Asian markets are following it. Commodity as well as bullions saw strong move up.

This is driven by event and should be short lived. However liquidity can always delay the topping process and US government has succeeded in doing that over past 3 years.

Case in point: Expect a strong Gap up opening in Indian equities as well today based on yesterday’s event. Nifty can open near the upper end of the range of 5500. This is going to be 3^rd gap in this up move and short term indicators are already over bought. It will be very important to see if the Gap is sustained for the rest of the day. Failure to do that will be strongly bearish.

Any close above 5510 will open up possibilities for 5600. For now the strategy for existing long positions should be to trail the stops to yesterday’s close. This strategy will help to capture the trend till it runs its course and if we are incorrect about the current pattern the trend is not missed. Fresh longs should be avoided as the risk is very high as of now. Aggressive traders can build short positions if Nifty fails to sustain above 5500 but conservative traders should wait for closing of Gap. Please understand excess liquidity can push markets beyond the specific point for extended period. The bias is positive and there is no negative confirmation. We have been telling this since the trend started. We will mention it here wheneverprices give negative confirmation. Trading strategy should be based on individual’s risk appetite and money management techniques.

In short, look at how prices react after the Gap up opening today. Also RBI monetary policy on Monday can increase the volatility.. Trade cautiously!

L&T: A classic topping pattern – Head & Shoulders

L&T: A classic topping pattern: For Larsen and Toubro we are showing a bigger term outlook which does not look good. Prices have formed a very big distribution pattern as shown on the first daily chart. Since June 2010 onwards prices have been forming a Head and Shoulder topping pattern the neckline of which was finally broken in September 2011 near 1500. 

There was a very big fall in this stock after that towards 1000 levels which achieved the conservative shoulder target.

Larsen and Toubro Daily chart:

Waves Analysis:

Currently prices moved up from 1000 and retested this neckline twice, first in February 2012 and then in August 2012. We do not think prices will be able to break above this neckline.

Also as seen prices are forming a smaller Head & Shoulder pattern since July 2012 onwards just below the neckline of the bigger pattern. This sends across strong bearish signs from medium term perspective. A break below 1300 will confirm this small distribution pattern with a target of 1100 on downside.

The next chart of L&T shows wave counts ………….(omitted purposely, wave counts meant only for paid users)….. The ultimate target for the bigger H&S pattern is 750 and the wave counts, momentum and resistance levels are all in sync with this outlook.

In short, expect short term pull back towards ……………..before next big leg down that will take prices to….as per wave analysis…..

Write to us on  helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com to subscribe “The Financial Waves” daily report and see yourself the crucial juncture this stock currently lie and the path ahead of Nifty. Do not get carried away with the euphoria but see objectively what wave counts are telling us about the future….For more information visit www.wavesstrategy.com

CNBC TV18 Ashish Kyal of Waves Strategy Tips on Crude 7th September, 2012

CNBC TV18 Ashish Kyal of Waves Strategy Tips on Crude 7th September, 2012. For more information visit www.wavesstrategy.com

Nifty at crucial juncture!

Below is as per the report published on 6th September morning before markets opened : "The Financial Waves" by Waves Strategy Advisors - www.wavesstrategy.com. This is from the daily report. Write to helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com for subscription details.

Bottom Line: Nifty continues to drift lower failing to take out previous days high. Bollinger Bands® are giving important information….

Nifty Daily chart:

  Nifty 60 mins chart:

Wave Analysis:

We mentioned before, “…In short, a close above 5300 along with increase in breadth of the overall market will be first positive sign over short term for a move towards 5450 - 5500. As long as this does not happen expect a range bound movement between 5210 – 5290.”

Nifty had a gap down opening and prices failed to close the Gap during intraday. As we have mentioned before there is no positive confirmation yet and prices have come close to the lower end of the range at 5220.

The trading strategy at this point of time depends on individual trader’s risk appetite and temperament. More aggressive trader can prefer going long at current levels with 5200 as important stop. The risk reward favors here but price confirmation does not. The other set of traders wait for price confirmation technique to ride the trend once it starts. It is important for an individual to define a trading strategy that suits his personality – A reversal trader or trading based on price confirmation!

Bollinger Bands is providing important information as shown on daily and 60 mins chart. Daily chart shows that prices have given spike below the lower end of the Bollinger Bands for the 3^rd time since the bottom of 4750. Prices have recovered twice before and it is important to see if prices can bounce back this time as well. If prices continue to move down from here it will change the direction of lower end of the Bollinger Bands to down which will carry bearish implication.

As shown on 120 mins chart, since the fall started from 5450 prices have been trying to move above the midline of the band lately. This indicates loss of momentum on downside. The trend has now changed to sideways. Yesterday’s close retested lower end of the Bollinger Bands on 120 period data. A move below 5200 will turn this band also to downside which will be strongly bearish. If prices have to bounce back it has to be from current levels else risk of serious down move can rise.

In short, we expect that the level of 5210 should not be broken on downside for the next leg to start on upside. However, first positive price confirmation will be obtained above 5270 levels. A break below 5200 will increase the risk of trend to emerge on downside. However the probability of latter is low as of now.

CNBC TV18 Ashish Kyal of Waves Strategy view on Gold

CNBC Ashish Kyal of Waves Strategy view on Gold. For more information visit www.wavesstrategy.com

CNBC-TV18 Ashish Kyal of Waves Strategy Tips on Crude 5th Sept, 2012

CNBC-TV18 Ashish Kyal of Waves Strategy Tips on Crude 5th Sept, 2012. For more information visit www.wavesstrategy.com

CNBC TV 18 - Ashish Kyal of Waves Strategy Advisors view on Copper

Transcript:
Ashish Kyal, Waves Strategy Advisors said copper continues to form higher highs and higher low formation since Rs 416 levels and this indicates a positive trend. MCX copper can be bought on dips to Rs 428 with a stop loss of Rs 425 and a target of around Rs 433.

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/commodities/commodity-bets-trading-tips-for-copper-nickel-gold_753120.html

Ashish Kyal of Waves Strategy Tips on Gold - CNBC-TV18 Commodity Bets