Sunday, November 29, 2009

Dubai News or Sentiments??


Dubai News or Sentiments??
Panic selloff in global markets including Gold, Oil, Copper - The news is Dubai may default on its debts. It is said 'Panic selloff in World markets is an over reaction but my understanding is: it is not the news that drives the market but the markets that create the news. As Mr. Prechter (founder of Elliott wave International) said, we are conditioned to view market behaving on laws of physics but it is the sentiment that drives the global market.
Such extreme Global reaction on Dubai news is something that is worrisome to me, indicating the rally since March this year, in some of the global markets, was on a very weak internal structure. The sentiments are changing tides very fast!
I am expecting a strong Dollar technical bounce back now from here for next few months before a major collapse leading to further extreme sell off in world equities and commodity markets
Is it a mere coincidence that we mentioned in our previous blog on 24th Nov "As long as prices do not cross the top of previous wave (5) i.e. 17493, we still hold bearish view with very appealing Risk / Reward ratio" well before the news came out!
Happened: On 26th prices brokedown out of corrective trend channel moving steeply in downward direction
We may have started a deep correction now and prices should fall well below previous bottom of 15330 made on 3rd of November.

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