Wednesday, November 15, 2017

How to trade Reliance Capital? Stock moved brilliantly as expected!!!

Looking at Reliance Capital stock prices many would be in shock to see a fall of 10% in just a day. But was it predictable? Yes, look at the below research published on 8th November 2017.

You can read below to understand the significance of an Impulse pattern if identified correctly. On 8th November 2017 we showed the below chart of Reliance Capital in our daily research report – The Financial Waves short term update and mentioned the following:

Reliance Capital 60 mins chart:

Reliance Capital Happened:

Wave analysis: The following was mentioned on 8th November to our subscribers of short term update
As shown in 60 mins chart, price movement witnessed since September explains the significance of 2-4 trend line concept of wave theory which states that as long as this trendline is protected the ongoing downtrend can continue. This suggests that as long as 590 levels is protected prices will continue to move in downward direction.
We have been bearish on Reliance Capital over past few weeks and has been mentioning the same to our subscribers.
Happened: Reliance Capital move exactly as per the expectations and the stock price witnessed a sharp fall which was well supported by the news on one of its group companies RCOM after defaulting its US dollar based Bonds. The stock has been witnessing lower high lower low formation without any consolidation indicating the strong momentum on downside.
Reliance capital made a low of 400 in today’s session itself falling by more than 10% in single day. It seems the 5th wave is also extending. So what is next??
We cannot be more accurate than this……….
The above charts simply show how one can use impulsive wave from trading perspective.
You can subscribe to this research report The Financial Waves short term update and see yourself how to form trading strategy using Elliott wave and technical analysis methods on Nifty, Bank Nifty, Stocks.
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Monday, November 13, 2017

Is correlation between Nifty and Crude Oil a MYTH?

Equity markets and Crude oil relationship are often cited together and it is assumed that rise in Crude oil prices will adversely impact stock market and economy. But is it really true?
Look at the below detailed research that shows that there is no specific correlation between Nifty and Crude Oil. Infact there is more of positive correlation rather than negative.
The below research is picked up from our monthly research report “The Financial Waves Monthly update”published on 6th November 2017, that provides detailed outlook on Nifty, Currency, Sector, Stock pick from investment perspective and much more.
Nifty and Crude Oil- Understanding the relation:

Crude is one of the highly traded energy commodities and keeping close watch on the same is very important. On media or business news channels we have seen many times that experts speak about the impact of Crude prices on Indian Equity Markets. You may have heard that rising crude prices are bad for economy and thus it will have negative impact on stock market or falling crude prices are good for economy. These are the two important phrases which we have seen on media many times. However to be objective in the market, it is very important to look at the trend of each of these asset classes and also to understand if stock market is really moving on back of volatility of Crude or not!
We have placed both these asset classes in the same chart to understand the overall correlation. Here we can see that in the year of 2008 it was the Indian Equity Market which formed a top earlier and then after few months Crude followed the trend of Indian Equities and started to move lower. Post the same in the start of 2009 both these assets formed a low more or less in the same month. From the above chart it can be seen that high direct correlation existed from 2008 till 2010 between Nifty and Crude prices.
In the period from last quarter of 2010 to first quarter of 2011 there was an inverse relation during which Nifty showed sharp fall but Crude continued to move higher. 
From 2011 to the mid of 2013 Crude and Nifty both moved in tandem. This was the period where predictability would have become easier depending upon the trend of other asset class. However this relation fade away and then we witnessed inverse relation from mid of 2013 to the mid of 2015. This was the period when people came out with the frame that falling crude prices are good for Indian Equities. However after mid of 2015 Crude and Nifty both started to move lower.
The period from mid of 2015 to start of 2017 was period again with high correlation and it showed direct relation. Interesting thing to observe was that both these asset classes moved higher together. Isn’t it surprising to see this?
Case in point: From the above observation it can be said there are different periods in which Crude and Nifty had direct and inverse relation.  Here we can also see that period of direct relation was longer than that of inverse relation.
The above chart clearly shows that it is “Myth” that rising Crude prices have negative impact on Indian Equity Market. The fact is that both these asset classes have continued to follow their respective trends in which they existed.
Food for thought: ……..
In short, ………..
The above is part of the research published from “The Financial Waves Monthly update”. If you would like to combine it with short term trading strategy and stock recommendations you can get access to “The Financial Waves short term update” our flagship product providing detailed technical analysis on Nifty, Bank Nifty, stocks and much more. Subscribe NOW

Friday, November 10, 2017

What is Nifty trading strategy using Technical analysis?

Are you anxious seeing the volatility in Nifty lately?
I am sure you are watching price movement closely and trying to figure out what is happening.
Whenever markets are changing the direction it results into spike in volatility and if that reversal is after a sustained trend many will start entering at lower levels expecting prices to go up again.
But this time it can be different, it is therefore important to see How to trade Nifty in coming week?
In my latest webinar you can see what is next from here?

In case you have doubts or queries or share across your charts so everyone can learn at Trader’s Forum.

Have a wonderful weekend!

Nifty is showing high volatility over past few days after reversing from channel resistance. At we use various methods like Elliott wave, Technical analysis, Candlesticks to forecast the trend and form trading strategy on Nifty, Stocks, Equity

Wednesday, November 8, 2017

Nifty has been moving precisely as per Elliott wave pattern! What is next?

Nifty has given a break below the mark of 10330 in today’s session. So will the downtrend continue?
Nifty selloff seen over past few days might have caught many by surprise but trust me this has been as per the channelling technique and Elliott wave methods I have been talking about over past few days.

We have also published our latest monthly research report “The Financial Waves Monthly update” and mentioned the following:

From trading perspective, it is important to keep a tab on 10500 – 10550 levels where there is confluence of channels which can be seen on the monthly chart in Figure 1. Since this is a big channel the resistance will keep shifting higher with each passing day but the best of the up move might be over and it is time to be alert and not complacent like majority. Keep a tab on ……. levels on downside as move below it will be first sign of weakness… BANG ON!

Look at the trading strategy given over past two days in our “The Financial Waves trading update
Trading strategy given on 7th November 2017 - Short positions can be created on move below 10400 with day's high as stop and target of 10370 or lower. BANG ON! Nifty broke below 10400 and selling pressure intensified on 7th November

Trading Strategy given on 8th November 2017 - Short positions can be created on move below 10340 with 10390 as stop and target of 10290 or lower. BANG ON! Nifty moved precisely as expected and is moving below 10290 levels.

If you would have subscribed to our Intraday / Positional Stock tips, following are the few calls given in today’s session

REPCOHOME FUT SELL BELOW 585 SL 591.4 TGT1 581.1 TGT2 574.7 – Target 2 achieved

CASH CHAMBALFERT SELL BELOW 141.55 SL 142.95 TGT1 140.75 TGT2 139.25 – Target 2 achieved

MRPL FUT SELL BELOW 129 SL 130 TGT1 128.4 TGT2 127.4 – Target 2 achieved

IBULHSGFIN FUT SELL BELOW 1186.2 SL 1196.2 TGT1 1180.2 TGT2 1170.2 - Failed

Please note the above is only for reference and the accuracy cannot be 100%. There will be a few calls that will not be in favour but if we use systematic method of trading then on net basis there is high probability of closing in positive.

Nifty daily chart: published on 2nd November 2017

Following is a part of research report published in morning of 2nd November 2017 - Let us see if this euphoric rise can continue beyond the daily channel resistance which is slowly shifting higher everyday but it is not very far away. On upside 10500 is next hurdle that prices have to cross to continue this momentum ongoing….

The above was published in daily equity research report “The Financial Waves short term update”
Here again is the webinar of last Friday for reference - In my latest webinar published on 3rd November 2017 I mentioned clearly why it is prudent to not get carried away and stay alert. You can see this yourself: How to trade Nifty from here? Will confluence of channels work again?

The above shows the various Equity research products we offer and how they have worked out during the scenario when majority have been complacent. I am not saying we are going down in vertical way but it looks the distribution has started and it is time to be alert and not get carried away in the euphoria!!!

Subscribe NOW The Financial Waves short term update that provide detailed Elliott wave analysis on Nifty, Bank Nifty, stocks with important support and resistance levels. In case you would like to get Intraday / Positional Stock tips register now and get research free along with it.

The Financial Waves Monthly update is now published. See yourself various methods of forecasting across Nifty, Metal Index, Crude, INR and much more in this comprehensive report. Subscribe NOW annually at 30% less price.

Tuesday, November 7, 2017

Is Nifty uptrend in danger? Time to stay alert!

Nifty came close to 10500 levels but failed to take out the highs. It is very important for you to look at the objective Technical analysis methods like Elliott wave, Channels.

In my latest webinar published on 3rd November 2017 I mentioned clearly why it is prudent to not get carried away and stay alert. You can see this yourself: How to trade Nifty from here? Will confluence of channels work again?

It seems the confluence of channels that I talked about in the video update worked out very well so far. It is now time to keep a close tab on the important short term support levels to see if the same can be protected or not.

Nifty 60 mins chart:

Over past few days we have been alerting our subscribers of daily equity research reports – The Financial Waves short term update to keep an eye on important levels and not to leverage much.

In 6th November morning we mentioned that “In short, price movement in this week is important. Let us see if prices can manage to build momentum even above 10500 – 10550 levels where multiple trendlines are intersecting. Failure to do that might result into distribution action. Keep a watch on …….. as short term support in this week.”

We have been using Channelling technique along with indepth analysis using Advanced Elliott wave – Neo wave to understand the maturity of trend. If the support levels are now broken decisively we will get another set of selloff similar to that seen in August and late September.

So, it is now time to be alert and monitor closely if the support levels mentioned in the daily research report is taken out for short term reversal confirmation. The confluence of channel has worked out brilliantly and it has helped us to caution our readers and subscribers when majority of others have been complacent.

Subscribe NOW The Financial Waves short term update that provide detailed Elliott wave analysis on Nifty, Bank Nifty, stocks with important support and resistance levels. In case you would like to get Intraday / Positional Stock tips register now and get research free along with it.