Tuesday, July 9, 2019

Maruti: How far will it fall?

Maruti once was among the top performing stocks in the Auto sector but post making a high near 9929 levels in July 2018, the stock failed to sustain and witnessed a sharp fall failing to show any recovery.
An important support zone near 6300 levels was seen but the same has been now broken decisively. Auto stocks have failed to show any recovery and the rallies have been short lived.
Below is the chart with detailed analysis and the move witnessed has been in sync with our counts.
Maruti Daily Chart:


Maruti witnessed a sharp fall from the high of 9929 levels till 6440. Prices traded near the zone of 6300 – 6440 for many months but this is now given away over past two days. The same zone which acted as support will now act as strong resistance. So unless we see move back above 6440 levels the outlook for the stock will remain bearish.
In the last session prices finally managed to break below the support on closing basis and since then has been moving lower and lower. Now as long as we do not see a faster retracement of the fall the trend would remain negative.
This simply shows how amazing simple horizontal support or resistance works and it can help in capturing reversals just by using such simple techniques.
From wave perspective, prices are currently moving in wave iii of (c) which might be forming an Ending diagonal pattern. It will be only post completion of 5 waves down we can see recovery in this stock. The stock has now corrected nearly 40% from its life time high levels of 10000 and we will hint it in our daily research once a faster retracement back above important resistance level is seen.
We have been publishing about this stock with detailed analysis in our daily equity research report published under the name “The Financial Waves STU”. Subscribe for the report and get daily updates of Nifty with three stocks before market opens and make the most of it. Get access here
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Thursday, June 20, 2019

Reliance Capital – Ichimoku Cloud, amazing channels, Trade setup!

ADAG group stocks showed strong reversal on upside along with Nifty. It seems that Nifty after forming a topping Head & Shoulder pattern at the top achieved the target of the Shoulder near 11625 and reversed back on upside. We are seeing short covering and fresh long build ups.
It is amazing to see how certain stocks like Reliance Cap, Reliance Power, Reliance Infra are moving. Only if you have the risk appetite you can trade in these stocks. But see the application of Ichimoku cloud along with channels which worked out amazingly well.
Reliance Capital had showed a correction of more than 70% in just few months. Despite everyone believing that the stock is driven by news or events or rather operator it has been following channels simply beautifully.
Reliance capital hourly chart:

Low made by this stock was precisely at the lower end of the channel from where we saw a huge bounce back. This proves that nothing else but the collective thought process and crowd psychology is moving the market.
Also the stock continued to provide shorting opportunity everytime it touched the red base line and now it has finally managed to decisively break above the same. This hints that the low for the stock might be in place and we should start seeing recovery eventually.
Again, only a trader with high risk appetite should enter in these type of stocks with thorough research and analysis.
So, you still think the stocks are moved by news or events! Think again!!!
You can subscribe to “The Financial Waves short term update” and see various stocks along with different technical tools, Ichimoku Cloud, Elliott wave methods. Get access here
As Nifty looks to be reversing back on upside there are opportunities again for momentum stocks. We have published today a momentum pick which has great potential and is about to give a breakout. Get access to the latest momentum stocks here
Upcoming seminar – Most advanced technical analysis training – Ichimoku Cloud combined with Neo wave and Hurst’s time cycles can give you the edge and increase the trading accuracy drastically. Limited seats available, know more here

Monday, June 17, 2019

Did Nifty form topping Head & Shoulder pattern? What are the targets?

Did Nifty form topping Head & Shoulder pattern? What are the targets?

Nifty has decisively broken below the level of 11770 as of now and trading much below that. Today’s closing is going to be important as we can see break below the important topping Head & Shoulder pattern

We believe in combining orthodox technical analysis method along with Elliott wave patterns and combined whatever is working in the market for high conviction trade setup.

Nifty is exhibiting fractal nature with forming Head & Shoulder pattern similar to that seen during the previous tops as well.

Below is the chart, picked up from daily research report “The Financial Wavesshort term update”
 
Nifty 60 mins chart: (published in morning on 17th June 2019 before markets opened)

Wave analysis:

Following was published in morning before equity markets opened

In Friday’s session Nifty witnessed a flat opening after which it moved lower for the first hour and later moved sideways for the remaining part of the session. It was only during the last half an hour where prices witnessed a sudden fall of nearly 76 points and closed near the days’ low. The past few sessions have been witnessing continuous deterioration in the market breadth and similarly on Friday the breadth weakened further with only 797 advances as against 1725 declines. Banknifty which has been a leader during the beginning of the fall broke its important support as well closed below the same in the last session. It looks like the banking index has once again taken the lead and might be indicating towards the coming of the catastrophic fall.

View my latest webinar on Nifty: Is it headed for a crash!

The daily chart shows that, (shown in actual equity research report)

As shown on hourly chart, the move looks very similar to that seen April. The entire distribution looks like a topping Head and Shoulder pattern which was also the case in April 2019. Now the neckline is placed near 11770 and the short term trendline support is already broken. Above that Bank Nifty has broken the entire range on downside and closed below it. Today’s movement is going to be crucial. If we are reading the pattern correctly then break below the Head & Shoulder pattern will give the target of ……… on downside which is also near the Gap area and the blue channel support. It is time to be cautious because selling is seen across the space with companies defaulting. The entire pressure is yet to be seen on the PSU banking space which has been the major financers to the debt ridden companies. This is also the reason why RBI has been consecutively reducing the interest rates which is not hinting towards positive sign. Stock market has sustained at elevated levels with PE ratio near 30 again from long term perspective this is a dangerous sign.

Case in point: if we break below 11770 and broader selloff intensifies it can result into serious capitulation that majority are still ignoring….

In short, …close below 11770 will result into first target level of ……… or probably lower. Any move back above 11900 will indicate a false break on downside and can lead to sudden positive reversal. So trade cautiously based on levels mentioned.

Nifty has so far continued to trade exactly as per the pattern under consideration and mentioned in the daily equity research report. We cannot be more accurate in identifying patterns and combining them along with Elliott wave. You can get access to the daily and monthly research reports and see yourself where are we headed and how far will the stocks collapse. There are amazing opportunities on daily basis and you can also get access to Intraday advisory on Nifty and stocks and receive equity research free along with it. Get access here

Upcoming Seminar: I will be discussing all of the above methods on how to identify patterns and combine them with important indicators and Elliott wave, Neo wave theory, Hurst’s Time cycles in a comprehensive training module – Become market wizard (BMW) – build from basic to the most advanced level of becoming a proficient trader. Only limited seats, Know more here and avail early bird offers. Check here

Friday, June 14, 2019

Nifty: Is it headed for a crash! (14th June 2019)

#Nifty closed the week near the lows and is on verge of giving a breakdown. Keep watch on support levels near 11770. Learn right from basics to the most advanced concepts of technical analysis, know more https://www.wavesstrategy.com/become-market-wizard-bmw-build-your-career-towards-full-time-expert-trader/

Thursday, June 13, 2019

YES BANK- How far will it fall? Classic moving average concept!

Yes bank has been a major laggard in the banking space since a long time. Post testing the high of 400 in October 2018, the stock has been moving in a downtrend without any signs of recovery. We were able to capture today’s fall using two EMAs.
 Moving averages are a great way to gauge the trend and they effectively show expected support and resistance levels. The exponential moving average is sensitive to recent price changes and one can get the idea of the strength of a trend by looking at the slope of the moving average.
Below is the chart with detailed analysis published in our daily report- “The Financial Waves short term update”
 Yes Bank Daily chart: (Anticipated as on 12th June)
Yes Bank 15 mins chart: (Happened as on 13th June)
 
Anticipated as on 12th May- On the daily chart we can see the stock making a move towards the lower trendline of the downward slopping channel. We have shown the 5 Day and the 20 Day EMA which has proved to be a very useful tool to get onboard the trend during a trending move. Whenever 5 days EMA moved below the 20 days EMA we have seen a strong trending move on downside. Now the 5 days EMA has again came close to 20 days EMA. Break of the support near 132 will provide a good opportunity to enter on the short side in this ongoing down move. We are currently moving in the form of wave c of the corrective pattern.
In short the trend for Yes bank seems to be sideways to negative, with the immediate support zone placed at 132 and the resistance is placed near the 145-150 level. Move below 132 will resume the down move towards the 125 and 120 eventually.
Happened as on 13th June- Prices moved exactly as expected and post testing the 5 days EMA; the stock broke its important support of 132 on closing basis & moved lower to form another 52 weeks low near 117.40 levels.
The above analysis clearly shows how well Elliott wave and simple techniques like Moving average crossover can be combined together. Get access to the daily equity research report & capture good trading opportunity over short term “The Financial Waves short term update”- Get access here
Path towards financial freedom - You can now learn these methods and become an independent trader. Simple methods if used correctly can provide a very powerful tool for trading. To ensure this we have launched Become Market Wizard (BMW) – build your career towards full time expert trader. This program will ensure anything and everything required to make money in the markets. The course will cover a lot more topics with practical charts, real life examples, actual trades on Derivative markets and much more. Know more here

Monday, June 10, 2019

DHFL: Capturing 27% down move in just 3 sessions!

DHFL has been in a strong downtrend ever since it tested the 691.50 in September 2018. This down move was captured with the help of Elliott wave and channelling techniques which helps in predicting the target levels.
Below is the chart with detailed analysis published in our report - “The Financial Waves STU”
DHFL: 60 mins chart: (Anticipated as on 03rd June, 2019)


DHFL 60 mins chart: (Happened as on 07th June, 2019)

(Below is the extract taken from our daily equity research report)
Anticipated as on 03rd June,2019: On the daily chart we can see the prices have been moving in a downward slopping channel, currently we are currently taking a resistance at the upper trendline of channel. If we observe the candle closely prices are moving sideways for the past 18 session between the 99 and 132 levels. As per the wave theory we are currently moving in the form of wave a on the downside post completion wave x near the level of 132.
In short the trend for DHFL seems to be sideways to negative and break below 102 will resume the downtrend. We can then expect a move towards 90 or lower levels.
Happened as on 07thJune,2019- Prices moved in line with our expectations, with a gap down from 101 levels and moved down towards 80 levels.
The above analysis clearly shows how well Elliott wave and channeling technique works and we have a proven track record for the same. Get access to the daily equity research report and know how to capture good trading opportunity over short term in our daily “The Financial Waves short term update”- Get access here

You can also Subscribe to our monthly report published under the name of “The Financial Waves Monthly Update”-and see why Nifty is at crucial juncture and volatility is only going to increase. We have also warned option writers and the reasons are justified in the latest monthly update. Get access here


Friday, June 7, 2019

Webinar - Nifty, SBI, DHFL power of Channels, key levels!


I am sure you are looking at the markets and trying to gauge what is wrong with the stocks that has fallen drastically.
Especially NBFC stocks like DHFL, L&T Finance, IBULL Housing corrected sharply. Are you trying to bottom fish? Think again!
I think there can be a pullback but it will be temporary.
You can see key levels of Nifty, SBI, DHFL in this webinar 



I will also be putting latest commodity report under free member section over next 3 days. check the latest research now here

Cheers,
Ashish Kyal, CMT
+91 9920422202