Thursday, August 10, 2017

Is Nifty starting a bigger degree downtrend or is it still buy on dips?

Nifty showed a sharp move on downside from the highs of 10086 made last Friday. After many weeks there was a correction of nearly 100 points that too amidst all the optimism!
 So does it mean we are reversing? No, it is too soon to conclude this unless important support levels are taken out. But as we keep mentioning in our daily equity research reports it is time to stay alert and not complacent which has paid well so far.
Infact, many of the subscribers already knew about the triangle pattern even before it started to form which helped them to buy near supports and sell near resistance levels. But now we should start seeing a trending move soon.
You can also look at the concept of range bound trading strategy I discussed in my last Friday’s video – How to trade Nifty?
Now look at the below hourly chart of Nifty: (shown in morning research before markets opened)

Happened:

Following was mentioned on 9th August before markets opened in our daily equity research report – The Financial Waves short term update

In short, looking at the faster retracement of last rising segment, break below Bollinger bands support and weakness in broader markets the chances are high of a trending move on downside. Nevertheless, just one day of move is too soon to conclude anything and so move below yesterdays low near 9950 will further confirm negative outlook. We will stick with existing wave counts as long as 10085 is protected on upside. …… But so far prices have behaved exactly as expected and let see if selling pressure can start building up from here which will catch majority by a surprise! BANG ON!

Happened: Nifty moved precisely as expected and majority are still guessing what is leading this selloff. Prices have moved more than 150 points since we warned and 100 points post the support zone was broken.

So what is next from here? I do not see it buy on dips market but it is rather sell on rallies. Majority are stuck exactly at the wrong levels and selloff has been strong across the board. Avoid catching a low in this market.

“The Financial Waves short term update” is our flagship product that will provide important support and resistance levels, trading methods and charts on Nifty, Bank Nifty, stocks where there is opportunity. To Subscribe visit Pricing Page

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Tuesday, August 8, 2017

Is Nifty arrived at crucial juncture? How to trade using simple technical analysis?

Nifty showed a sharp move on downside from the highs of 10086 made last Friday. After many weeks there was a correction of nearly 100 points that too amidst all the optimism!

 So does it mean we are reversing? No, it is too soon to conclude this unless important support levels are taken out. But as we keep mentioning in our daily equity research reports it is time to stay alert and not complacent which has paid well so far.

Infact, many of the subscribers already knew about the triangle pattern even before it started to form which helped them to buy near supports and sell near resistance levels. But now we should start seeing a trending move soon.

You can also look at the concept of range bound trading strategy I discussed in my last Friday’s video – How to trade Nifty?

Now look at the below hourly chart of Nifty: (shown in morning research before markets opened)

We showed a probable triangle pattern which might be completing. So the closing of next two days become crucial to confirm the above wave counts. A few of the counts are purposely deleted as they are meant for paid subscribers. But nevertheless, if you use simple technique like Bollinger Bands and Channels you will know the bias as of now.

Nifty has now taken out the low marked as wave d and the next support is now at the low of wave b. If this level is also taken out decisively we might be headed for a reversal. So it is time to keep a close watch on crucial levels and the Elliott wave counts as it develop. Faster retracement of last rising segment is one of the most basic techniques in Neo wave that helps us to understand and catch a reversal early on!

“The Financial Waves short term update” is a daily research report published before market opens and it shows very detailed objective method for capturing the trend on Nifty, Bank Nifty and stocks on periodical basis. In today’s session, at one point of time Nifty gave more than 100 points of down move despite of all euphoria. It is time to be objective and alert! For subscription to this research simply visit Pricing Page.

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Wednesday, August 2, 2017

How to trade Nifty post RBI policy announcement and rate cut?

RBI finally changed its status quo and cut repo rates by 25 bps. This time Mr. Patel has managed to be predictable.

It is interesting to see closing of Nifty post the monetary policy announcement. Prices traded in a narrow range for most part of the day until it finally gave away during the final 30 minutes.
The reason prices have been struggling at the current zone is due to the series of channel resistance all in the near zone.

Look at the below chart of Nifty which shows why prices have been failing at higher levels even though the overall tone is still bullish…

Nifty 60 minutes chart:

News or events do not drive the markets but only results into short term volatility or random movement which will last for few minutes to few hours or few days and then the original trend resumes.

The above chart clearly shows that RBI policy announcement did result into short term movement or volatility on intraday basis but prices eventually closed that the short term moving average support.
Now how to trade using Trendlines or channels?

Nifty is moving in the overall expanding pattern shown by blue trendline and within that it is moving in red channel. The reason markets are getting nervous at the higher levels is due to the upward sloping blue trendline. Also as this trendline is shifting higher the resistance will keep moving upside.
So, best trading strategy will be to buy when prices move towards the channel support and also RSI near the support zone. This technique will be valid as long as the short term red channel is intact.
So even if you do not use any other method but this basic technique you can trade profitably provided risk reward is favorable and the reason for trading is objective!

Now imagine the power when you combine these basic techniques with Elliott wave and other methods like Bollinger Bands, indicators and much more.

“The Financial waves short term update” is our flagship research report that shows trading strategy and detailed analysis using Elliott wave, cycles and indicators applied on Nifty and stocks. To subscribe visit Pricing Page.