Monday, November 23, 2015

Ashish Kyal- Obama visit to Malaysia Dukascopy Interview - A Swiss Busin...

Ashish Kyal interview on Dukascopy Swiss Business channel - Will the MYR be able to hold on to those gains? His strategy for USDMYR, Ringgit, Dollar Currency Projections. What to expect from Obama visit to Malaysia and Kuala Lumpur Composite stock index (KLCI)..

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Nifty intraday Trading Strategy based on Elliott wave!

Nifty has continued to move in a predictable fashion.
It is now moving in a range after forming a low near 7710. Momentum is yet to pick up in either direction. Even during such scenario intraday strategy is providing good trading opportunities.

Below is the chart of Nifty showing range bound action:

Nifty 60 mins chart: (Below chart is picked up from daily research report)

Wave analysis: (Following was published today morning before equity markets opened)

In previous update we mentioned that, “In short, expect range bound movement to continue and wait for clear breakout from the mentioned levels for strong trending move to emerge.”

Nifty continued to move in a range as expected. Prices managed to take out the first resistance level at 7870 but failed to sustain above it and closed near 7850. Also we know from past that wave (x) usually acts as an important resistance. The down move from the highs of 8340 is non impulsive in form of triple correction and currently the third standard correction is still ongoing in the form of sideways action. Unless we see a strong break above the wave (x) level which is near ……. such sideways action can continue.

There is huge open interest buildup in the Call option at the strike of 8000. This indicates that crossing above this level is going to be difficult in this expiry and on downside 7700 strike put has maximum open interest indicating this as an important support area. This is altogether a different method to identify the key levels. Please note these levels are in close sync with the levels derived using Elliott wave pattern. We have been mentioning 7940 on upside and 7700 on downside as important as per the pattern analysis.

In addition to above we also show the daily chart with detailed Elliott wave counts along with below trading strategy mentioned in “The Financial Waves trading update”

Published on 20th November 2015 before markets opened: Long positions can be created if Nifty move towards 7820 then bounces back above 7860 with day's low as stop and target of 7900." BANG ON!

Happened: Nifty moved exactly as expected on Fridays session.. We cannot be more accurate on the levels. Nifty made intraday low near 7818 and then high near 7906. It moved exactly as expected and achieved the target level.

Published on 18th November 2015 morning before markets opened: "Short positions can be created on move below 7790 with day's high as stop and target of 7740." BANG ON!

Happened: On 18th November, Nifty moved lower exactly as expected and touched intraday low of 7725

Published on 17th November 2015 morning: Nifty can trade in sideways action over next few days. For today, short positions can be created if Nifty move towards 7830 and then moves back below 7780 with day's high as stop and target of 7740. Long positions can be created if Nifty move towards 7790 then bounces back above 7840 with day's low as stop and target of 7890.

Happened on 17th November trading session: We mentioned 7780 - 7790 as important support area. Nifty made a low near 7793 and reversed back from there. Also it has been moving in sideways pattern since then. For a derivative trader knowing that prices are going to trade in sideways action is also vital information.

The above strategies are mentioned in our daily research report “The Financial Waves Trading update”that covers in-depth analysis on Nifty using Elliott wave and trading strategy. In case you would like to know the trend for stocks as well subscribe now to “The Financial Waves short term update” that covers Nifty and stocks outlook.

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Friday, November 20, 2015

Nifty: Predicting the Elliott wave pattern on short term chart!

In last few days Nifty has showed high volatile moves in both the direction.
On 18th November 2015 Nifty closed on negative note at 7730 level losing more than 100 points whereas on 19th November 2015 prices showed strong up move and gained 110 points. Such kinds of moves are very dangerous from trading perspective and hence when not to trade is very important for traders. Is it possible to predict such kind of moves, so that one can be ready with pre - planned strategy? Answer is Yes and it is possible with the help of Elliott wave theory and Time Cycles which are the Advanced concept of Technical analysis. Below we have shown path of Nifty anticipated in the morning of 18th November 2015.

Nifty 60 mins chart: (shown on 18th November 2015)

Nifty 60 mins chart: (Happened on 19th November 2015)

There are times when one needs to stick with objective tools to understand the overall market. Nifty has been following our path brilliantly, so what is next from here on?

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Wednesday, November 18, 2015

What is Elliott Wave, Bollinger Bands®, PCR Ratio, Time Cycles suggesting for Nifty Trend?

Bottom Line: Nifty traded in a range as expected. Sideways action can continue for few more days!

The below research is picked up from "The Financial Waves short term update" which is published daily in morning before equity markets open. This report has Elliott wave and other technical tools applied on Nifty along with 3 different stocks

Nifty daily chart:

Nifty 60 mins chart:

Wave analysis:

In previous update we mentioned that, In short, there is some loss of momentum on downside. Partial profits can be booked on existing short positions and remaining can be trailed to the highs of 7870. Move below 7710 is important to resume the downtrend. For now expect few days of sideways action!

Nifty moved in a range yesterday as expected. Even when the Global markets were strong positive prices failed to generate any strong positive momentum and traded in a narrow range. High made was at 7860 which was close to the level of 7870 mentioned as short term important level.

Measuring change in Sentiments using PCR: Put Call ratio has reduced drastically towards 0.72 levels. This level is not seen for many months now. A higher value indicates more put built up whereas a lower value indicates some buying interest emerging. Many technical analyst use this as a contrarian indicator but we have observed it to be working more number of times in favor rather than taking a contrarian stand. So a lower value in PCR ratio indicates more Call option builtup compared to puts which is a positive signal. However, this indicator acts only as a warning signal and we will not act on this alone. As mentioned earlier break above 7937 which is last leg of falling segment is must for confirming positive outlook.

Bollinger Bands: A sharp reversal on upside following a sharp selloff usually results into range bound action between the Bollinger Bands. We have shown these bands on hourly chart and the resistance is placed near 7870 whereas support is at 7720 levels. A decisive close above or below these levels will be required for short term direction.

Elliott wave pattern: The selloff from the highs of 8336 is in the form of triple correction and prices are currently in third standard correction. This third pattern fell short of the target level of 7600 which implies that it is only a part of wave (x) or this correction is forming a triangle pattern as shown on the hourly chart. This is only one of the probable scenarios and next few days of price action is now required to confirm the pattern under formation. 

Predictability and accuracy is also cyclical to an extent and when prices are near the reversal areas one should wait for break of levels for clear trend confirmation. We have enjoyed very high degree of accuracy so far and it is now time to keep the emotions under check and let us wait for market to decide in which direction it wants to head again. Technical indicators are suggesting that the down trend is in matured stage.

In short, expect range bound movement to continue for few more days. Decisive break above 7870 followed by 7940 will be positive whereas any move below 7700 will resume the downtrend. Bank Nifty has 108 days Time cycle low on 20th November and we are keeping a very close watch on this index for leading indications!

To subscribe, visit the Pricing Page - and select "The Financial Waves short term update" See yourself what is the future course of action for Indian equity markets and stocks! You can also reach us on +91 22 28831358 or +91 9920422202. For more information Contact US

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Nifty showing pause in the fall but await positive confirmation!

Below Research is picked up from 'The Financial Waves Short Term Update' 

Bottom Line: Some buying activity was seen after many days with Nifty closing in green above 7800. We can see range bound action for few days.

Nifty daily chart:

Nifty 60 mins chart: 

Wave analysis:

In previous update we mentioned that, As of now there is no indication of bottom formation and move below 7770 will continue the down move.

Nifty showed good recovery yesterday from the lower levels and prices formed a blue bar after 6 consecutive red bars (excluding the Diwali Muhurat trading). This indicates some buying emerging from the zone of 7700. Also Bank Nifty formed higher highs and higher lows on hourly scale in yesterday trading session thereby providing minor positive divergences between indices. Both of these developments are seen yesterday and so one should be cautious with the short positions as of now.

As there is no base formation we can expect range bound movement before any strong trending move can emerge again. The low formed near 7714 is going to be crucial and break below this level will be crucial to resume the downtrend.

As shown on hourly chart, prices moved very close to the downward sloping red channel. Decisive break above 7870 will break this channel on upside and indicate that short term low is in place. Next 2 to 3 days of price action is important and we are closely observing if there is base formation activity keeping index in a range.

In short, there is some loss of momentum on downside. Partial profits can be booked on existing short positions and remaining can be trailed to the highs of 7870. Move below 7710 is important to resume the downtrend. For now expect few days of sideways action! 

Currently wave (z) is in formation which has traveled only 61.8% of wave (y). This wave (z) is either forming a triangle or a Flat correction pattern and prices are currently in minor wave b of (z).

The last leg of fall has started from 7937 level and a faster retracement above this level is necessary to confirm Price and Time reversal and change in trend. Unless that happens sideways action is plausible over next few days.

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Tuesday, November 10, 2015

Nifty: A strong selloff – more ground to cover, this is not the end! An insight into Social mood!

Nifty has finally started showing increase in volatility and size of the bar. This movement is no surprise to us as it has happened in a perfect systematic manner as per the Elliott wave structure.
Bihar state election outcome only resulted in a temporary Gap down which was almost filled by end of the day and prices resumed downward journey from the point where it has left.
Below is the part of the research report published every day morning “The Financial Waves short term update” before the election outcome..

Nifty 60 mins chart: Anticipated on 9th November 2015 before Markets opened

Nifty 60 mins chart: Happened as of today

Wave analysis:

Nifty moved exactly as expected irrespective of the big event of Bihar election results. Following was mentioned in the morning of 9th November 2015 before equity markets opened
“In the last session high Volatility was witnessed where Nifty showed up move towards 8000 level in the first few minutes of trading session and post that reversed on downside sharply towards 7926. Post that throughout the day prices traded in a range.

Post the Bihar state election outcome we can see a Gap down opening after such a poor performance by BJP. From Socionomics perspective such extreme change in sentiments clearly hints that the correction currently ongoing in equity markets is of higher degree. It is surprising to see that it was just in 2014 where BJP had landslide victory at the center and now people are again shifting their perspective. Stock markets also reflect the social mood which does not look very good as of now.

Indian equities formed a major low in August 2013 and touched high near 7563 levels on the central election result day. The rally started 8 months prior to the Election Day outcome. Coincidently currently the downtrend started 8 months prior to the Bihar election outcome which looks to be ending the era of optimism on the existing government. Case in point is sentiments, social mood are cyclical and governed by patterns. Cycle analysis has so far helped us to stay on the right side of the trend and the existing short positions can continue to use trailing stop method to keep riding this trend on downside.
As shown on hourly chart, prices are moving lower within the red corrective channel and forming complex correction. The next support is now directly near 7790 which is the lower end of the channel and is also equal to the first correction marked as (w). One should avoid catching a low in case the sentiments turn extremely bearish and it is prudent to stay in that direction as of now. Cycle analysis that is explained in detail in current monthly update shows that an important low will be formed only by the month end and before that panic selloff cannot be ruled out.

Existing short position should use 8020 as stop and look at levels on closing basis. Volatility can be high as we are already in downside move along with an event outcome which is associated with increase in average bar size.
In short, we continue to stay bearish after prudently capturing the top near 8150 – 8200 levels using the objective techniques. Avoid catching a low and ride the trend as long as it lasts!” BANG ON!

Happened: Nifty continued to move lower with increase in the bar size. Today’s selloff towards 7770 only shows that events do not drive the trend as prices recovered after selloff yesterday and resumed the downtrend from the level it was supposed to do so before the event.
We have been bearish from the highs of 8150 – 8200 levels and now Nifty has fallen by nearly 400 points from there. Time cycles, Neo wave, Elliott wave and other technical tools helped us to capture this down move prudently this time as well.

Do not be surprised now to see bearish news across and how economy is in doldrums. News and Economic data are lagging indicators whereas stock market is leading. Elliott wave patterns help us to stay objective and forecasts the future rather than looking only at the past data.

Subscribe NOW and see yourself in the past archive why we turned bearish near the top and where do we expect this trend to go and end. Time is also crucial for a trader and we have mentioned a distinct time zone by when this correction should end.

Visit Pricing page and select “The Financial Waves short term update” and pay online. This can be the best investment you can make this Diwali trust me on that! For any other details Contact US

Friday, November 6, 2015

Nifty continued to move as per Neo wave path and channels!

Key to trading success is “Identification of the pattern and understanding the reversal zone”
Trading using technical analysis depends a lot on the pattern you are seeing and what is the expected outcome. Deviation from expectations is the risk. So a successful evaluation of Risk – reward ratio can happen only once you identify a pattern.

Neowave is advanced concept of Elliott wave and has different patterns. We identified Diametric as one such pattern under formation when it was in its earlier stages of formation. Such pattern identification has helped us to jot down the path prices will follow not only for few days but months as well.

Now look at the below chart along with the path shown in “The Financial Waves Monthly update”published on 5th October 2015

Nifty daily chart showed on 5th October 2015 monthly update

Figure 3: Nifty daily chart

In previous monthly update published on 5th October 2015 we mentioned the following: We will be keeping a close watch on the market leaders that were resilient during the last stage of fall and they should start showing weakness when wave f reaches towards the matured stages of upmove.  Diametric pattern continues: So far so good… Prices have behaved exactly as per this pattern since March 2015. So as long as our predictions continue to be accurate we will stick with it and only a strong break above 8550 we will evaluate strong bullish possibilities. For now the current up move is wave …….. and post that the downtrend should resume in form of wave ……... This upside leg should consume around 10 days to 13 days and can travel towards 8300 – 8400 levels.” BANG ON!

Nifty continued to behave exactly as expected even in month of October 2015. Prices moved higher in the form of wave …….. of the Diametric pattern and reversed from target zone of 8300 – 8400 which we have been constantly mentioning. This clearly shows power of pattern.

To know what is next from here and how do we expect prices to behave – Subscribe now to “The Financial Waves Monthly update” for medium term outlook and “The Financial Waves short term update” to understand the smaller swings that ultimately makes up big moves.

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Tuesday, November 3, 2015

Nifty: Magic of 76.4% Fibonacci retracement and Power of channels!

Fibonacci series has wide applications not only in natural phenomenon but even to freely traded markets.
There are series of Fibonacci projections or retracements that is applicable at any point of time but the key is to identify the important Fibo levels which are followed by that specific markets.
Nifty and Sensex both has been following Fibonacci ratio of 76.4% most of the time. Even the up move from the lows of 7540 failed to surpass the level of 76.4% retracement of the previous down move and reversed from there.
The below chart of Nifty clearly highlights the application of this principle. One should always look at cluster of evidences and not just a single parameter to derive a high conviction trade setup.

Nifty daily chart:

(Elliott wave counts are purposely removed from the above chart but is shown in actual morning daily research report  The Financial Waves short term update)
We do not use only advanced concept of technical analysis like Elliott wave to derive high conviction trade setups. It is important to rely on basic techniques like Channels, Fibonacci retracements and Indicators like RSI along with Elliott wave.

The above chart clearly shows reversal from the red channel resistance and also from Fibonacci ratio of 76.4% level. Many turned bullish when Nifty crossed above 8300 levels but we maintained our cautious stand and warned our subscribers about the upcoming reversal.

It is not very often to see Elliott wave, RSI, Channels, Fibonacci ratios and Time cycles all pointing to the same direction. But when such situation emerges it is wise to listen to the message market is giving to us and then act without any doubt. It is only then in this game of probability one can emerge as a winner provided you have the right tools that has proven track record in the past.

Over past few months movement on Nifty has been in very systematic and synchronized fashion. This happens during channelized corrections and offer excellent trading opportunities. Subscribe NOW to The Financial Waves short term update and get insight into crucial levels that will assist you from trading perspective. For subscription visit Pricing page or Contact US

Monday, November 2, 2015

Are you surprised by the sharp fall in Larsen and Toubro? But the fall was expected!!

Indian Equity Markets has been going through weakness from last few trading sessions.
In this down move participation has been spreading slowly and steadily. In this kind of market one should be ready with proper trading strategy. LT has showed sharp down move in Fridays trading session post the declaration of result. Now many will think that due to below expected results there was sharp fall in prices. However were you able to capture the down move?

The Financial Waves Short Term Update covers Nifty and 3 stocks where short term trading opportunity exist. See below the chart of LT we have taken from the research report:

LT 60 mins chart: (Anticipated in the morning of 21st October 2015)  
 LT 60 mins chart: (Happened on 30th October 2015)
(Part of research published in the morning of 21st October 2015)

Wave analysis:

Capital Goods stocks are showing weakness. Majority of stocks like BHEL, Havells, Siemens has continued to move higher but momentum on upside is drying as the time is going. This is providing the early indication that distribution might be ongoing in these stocks given the momentum less up move from last few days. We have picked up LT which has retraced the prior down move and now looks to be at the matured stage of up move.

The downfall from 1888 to 1412 witnessed from July to September 2015 has retraced the last leg of down move in faster time and thereby confirmed that medium term trend has reversed on downside. As per wave perspective, prices have completed intermediate  wave a at 1412  and from the start of September 2015 intermediate wave b is ongoing which looks to be at matured stage. Moreover prices are near the 200 days Exponential moving average from where we have seen reversal on downside in the past. Hence one should be cautious in L&T now as it has arrived at inflexion point.

As shown in 60 mins chart, ROC which gauges the momentum of the given period of time has been showing negative divergence. This is suggesting that upside momentum has been reducing. Now, sharp fall below 1535 will indicate that intermediate wave b completed in form of Zigzag correction pattern and intermediate wave c has started on downside.

In short, move below 1535 is required to confirm negativity and then 1410 can be expected which is the first conservative target.

Happened: LT moved in line with our expectation and even during the result, prices respected our objectivity and touched our first conservative target of 1410 on 30th October 2015 when Company declared results! Isn’t it surprising?

Subscribe to “The Financial Waves Short Term Update” which covers Nifty and 3 stocks with Elliott wave theory and important levels. For more information visit Pricing Page