Selloff in Nifty even before Delhi Election exit polls.
Now the logical reasoning will be Delhi elections resulted into selloff in equity markets but the top was formed way before the voting day itself!
Following is the research published daily before equity markets opened in “The Financial Waves short term update” For subscription options visit Pricing Page.
See yourself the logical reasoning we had for markets to turn and the way it has been moving precisely as per the Elliott wave pattern that we forecasted!
Following is the chart shown on 27th January 2015 in daily research report “The Financial Waves short term update”
Nifty 60 mins chart:
As per triangle rule prices can travel towards 100% to 125% of widest leg which gives an upside target zone of 8880 to maximum 9040.
Happened: Nifty made a top at 8996 very close to the average we have been expecting all the while on 30th January 2015
Nifty 60 mins chart: - Anticipated on 2nd February
Anticipated on 2nd February 2015:
49 days Time cycle which has warned us that a turn is near and the up move is in matured stage. Many would compare this fall with that of 6th January but the major difference being that this fall has happened from the channel resistance after strong euphoria near the Time cycle top with VIX index reaching near 20 levels from lows of 13 along with prior up move.
In short, break of 8795 has turned the bias negative on Indian markets. Follow-up action of 2 days will be very crucial from here. Failure to show any meaningful bounce with sustained pressure below Friday’s low at 8775 followed by 8690 will indicate a very important top is in place atleast for next few months. It is time to stay away from the crowd and follow the objective techniques rather than getting carried away with unrealistic targets.
Happened: We have been constantly warning our subscribers to stay alert and not get carried away in the euphoria. The Elliott wave pattern has worked precisely to the point so far!
Nifty 60 mins chart: Anticipated today morning before equity markets opened
Wave Analysis: In today’s morning research report we mentioned the following:
Anticipated in today’s morning research report: In previous update we mentioned that “In short, trend for Nifty continues to be negative unless we see a close above prior bar’s high. Intraday volatility can now subside and a strong trending move is due to emerge. Decisive break below Bollinger band will provide strong negative confirmation.”
Nifty continued to form red bar throughout the week and closed at not only the day’s low but also week’s low. Infact, on the weekly basis we can see a very strong bearish Evening candlestick pattern. This is three candles pattern and usually indicates short term reversal especially when it occurs from the important Fibonacci and Channel resistance area….
Now, Delhi Election exit polls are suggesting a clear victory by AAP party. This will become clearer tomorrow on the counting day but markets are going to discount it today in anticipation. This does not directly impact the ruling government BJP but the rally has been more driven by positive euphoria rather than rationality. Also the Banking stocks have already started taking a beating after a few banks reported poor than expected results both in Private sector and PSU space. Case in point is if the two major factors responsible for driving markets toward 9000 mark are changing then there has to be some impact and change in sentiments atleast over short term.
Nifty hourly chart clearly shows…..(explained in actual report) In short, we continue to think that prices are now in wave …or wave ….. and trend will remain negative unless we see a close above 8760. Sharp move towards 8450 can be expected if this is indeed wave ……. on downside which will also confirm a bigger degree top atleast for few months is formed!
Happened: Nifty moved sharply lower and already touched the lows of 8516 coming close to the first target level of 8450
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