Tuesday, July 8, 2014

Nifty Path Ahead movement exactly as expected!

Nifty has touched the level of 7800 and came exactly towards the upper end of the target as expected.
The below chart clearly shows the expected path showed on 23rd June 2014 morning research report itself with clear Elliott wave counts and the path shown..
Nifty daily chart: (Anticipated on 23rd June 2014) morning research report
Happened: (as of today 8th July 2014 3.00 pm)
Following was mentioned on 23rd June 2014 “As shown on daily chart, it seems the entire of the current up move is probably wave c or wave 3 which is subdividing into 5 waves. Either of the scenarios is indicating that wave iv is ongoing and once it is complete we should see wave v towards 7800 levels. This wave v will also lead to negative divergence on daily RSI which will further confirm short term topping process. The probable path over next few weeks is shown above but it is prudent to wait for price confirmation above 7600 for a move towards 7800 levels. Also near those levels we will have to closely watch the momentum and overall participation. If it is strong the current leg can extend further but if the overall breadth continues to deteriorate it will indicate a final wave v before we move down back towards ……... The ongoing structure also looks like a wedge shaped formation with each of the up legs getting smaller….”
Happened:The above if looked in hindsight seems like the precise development happened so far. Each and every point mentioned has worked exactly with deterioration in breadth, lesser participation, and the selloff seen today is also following post pattern implication! Nifty touched intraday high of 7809and reversed sharply from there forming classical negative divergence as well on all degrees. Prices are now down nearly 170 points from the highs!!!
So what is next from here? Is a major top in place before BUDGET itself or there is one more leg pending on upside before a top is formed?
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