Monday, June 23, 2014

Where is Indian Currency USDINR headed? The complex correction!

INR has been in news lately due to its depreciation against major currency pair and especially USD over past 1 month.
The movement on upside in USDINR was expected not because of any fundamental reasons but the simple concept of channels provided important reversal point. We have been expected 58 level to act as very important support and USDINR bounced back exactly from there!
The below chart of USDINR was published on 26th May 2014:
USDINR Weekly chart spot:
Happened so far: Rupee moved from lows near 58 to highs near 60.50 in less than a month
On 26th May morning research report following was mentioned:
USDINR has arrived at crucial support zone of 58which is the important channel support along with 61.8% retracement of the entire up move from 51.20 levels to the highs of near 69. This level of 51.20 was seen in October 2012 and this pair touched 69 in August 2013. Indian currency along with many Asian currencies was looked upon as near crisis similar to that seen in 1997. However, many were surprised on dramatic reversal from 69 but from Elliott wave perspective the high was exactly near 161.8% of previous move which confirmed completion of wave 3 of primary degree and wave iv is ongoing since many months now. USDINR has also arrived near very important channel support which is valid since 2012 onwards and can be clearly seen from the above weekly chart. As of now prices have not confirmed the reversal & 58 is the crucial level and should not be ignored.
As shown on weekly chart, in Friday’s trading session this currency pair was unable to take out previous day’s low and touched intraday high at 58.55 level.The reading on RSI is exactly near 30.This is the time when one should get cautious in case major reversal across asset class happens.
Happened: Rupee moved from lows near 58 to highs near 60.50 in less than a month…
To know where is USDINR headed from here on from short term to medium term horizon subscribe to the “The Forex Waves short term update” and see yourself why we have been expecting such sharp depreciation in INR against USD. Visit for subscription options or Contact us at +91 9920422202 / + 91 28831358 for more details, Mail us at
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