MCX Natural Gas: Trading commodity using Elliott wave pattern!

Natural Gas is one of the high volatile commodities.  Many market participants find it difficult to catch short to medium term trend in this energy commodity. But technical analysis works brilliantly on this commodity. Since May 2013 prices are moving near the crucial level and consolidated in the range. Along with simple technical analysis, advanced technical tools i.e. Elliott wave counts is shown below in weekly chart picked up from the commodity research report “The Commodity Waves”.

Natural gas Weekly chart:

Waves Analysis:

As seen above in weekly chart of Natural Gas, in the month of June 2013 prices have tested the crucial resistance of 240. Thereafter, prices pause the corrective move exactly near 76.4%retracement level and we have witnessed strong consolidation between the range of 210-240 levels. Momentum indicator MACD of 14 days crossed the signal line form above and exhibits the strong negative divergence. This indicates the bearishness in this commodity.

We can observe in daily chart, in the mentioned range above prices have tested the resistance and support of 240 and 210 for thrice respectively. Price ROC has moved higher till 30 in the year 2012. Thereafter, it has been constantly formed lower highs and lower lows but prices formed higher highs and higher lows. This clearly indicates the loss of momentum on upside and weakness in the commodity.

Considering negative divergence on MACD of 14 days in weekly chart and sustainable move below 240 level suggested that prices might have ended wave z of wave X near 240 levels and it can start the next leg on downside in form of wave Z. First negative confirmation will be obtained below 210 levels.

 In short, as long as 240 is intact on upside our bias is negative. Any move below 210 will take prices lower towards the next support of 191/190 levels. Further, move below 190 will accelerate the selling pressure and prices can move till 170/165.

MCX Natural Gas is at crucial juncture. Prices can give break from the crucial levels very soon. Along with this commodity we also cover MCX Gold, Silver, Copper and Crude. For more information on daily commodity research visit to us at http://wavesstrategy.com/index.php/store.html