Thursday, October 6, 2011

Will Nifty rebound strongly from here! Bank Nifty at crucial juncture!!!

 Nifty 30 mins
 Nifty Daily
Nifty 30 minutes chart shows a series of overlapping structure with strong divergences across various indicators on different time frames. It looks a perfect setup for prices to bottom out here and start rallying. However we have not yet received price confirmation. A move above 4820 will provide first positive confirmation and will produce strong positive divergence even on Daily basis. History shows that whenever we see divergences on Daily, 60 minutes, 30 minutes and smaller scale charts atleast some move is expected in opposite direction (up for now) over shorter term.
Please be aware that divergences might last longer than one can think of and so price is the ultimate deciding factor. Move above 4820 – 4830 is crucial.
Wave structure suggests we are in complex X wave formation and the current down move from 5180 to 4720 is just wave b of X and wave c will be 5 waves on upside after wave b is complete.
However a move below 4720 will increase the selling pressure and index might correct till 4600 if that is taken out. It looks a lower probable scenario as of now.
In short, we expect Nifty to bottom out here and might give a strong rally given the series of divergences but price confirmation above 4820 is important!
Bank Nifty 60 mins
Bank Nifty Daily
Bank Nifty daily chart shows that we are near the end of this downtrend. We might have completed wave Y or will be completing near 8400 levels. This is also lower end of the blue channel as shown on daily chart. A turn from here will be a surprise for many and might lead to a steep rise due to short covering. However we would not like to be in way of this strong downtrend but wait for any positive confirmation as buying opportunity since downtrend is in very late stages.
As seen from 60 minutes chart, we are seeing minor positive divergences in ROC and the structure looks like an ending diagonal. Individual stocks like ICICI Bank, SBI are also showing overlapping ending diagonal formations and positive divergences. A move above 8900 will provide first positive confirmation.
However avoid initiating longs unless prices start rallying up steeply as we might be just in a wave 4 of C (shown as alternate A-B-C in red on Daily chart). This scenario suggests C wave has one more leg pending on downside. Either ways the down trend looks in matured state.
Time cycles are also suggesting a reversal is very near and a bottom should be in place soon.
In short, wait for positive confirmations above 8900 with 8400 forming crucial support level!

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