Thursday, December 24, 2009

Bearish Implications VOID! AGAIN!

Anticipated: Sensex Probable path was shown on 08/09/2009 and was adopted as preferred count on blog with heading "Bearish Implications VOID!"

Happened: Sensex touched 17493 on 17/10/2009 and turned for a fall till 15500

On 8th of September 2009, we mentioned a heading "Bearish Implications VOID!" for first time when we turned bullish on Sensex and gave a probable path with a target of 17500! We actually mentioned on our blog "As per this count we have target for Sensex of 17500. Lets wait and watch!"
Happened: On 17th October 2009 Sensex actually made a high of 17493 and started a steep fall till 15330. Sensex missed the target I gave by 0.04%. Yes this is true. I was also shocked to see this when I was searching for my blog on Title "Bearish Implications VOID". This only proves that Humans are controlled by their subconscious mind and follow a natural rhythmic progression based on Fibonacci relationships.
Today again we are giving the same title "Bearish Implications VOID" as today's move is similar to one prior to 8th September 09. A recent fall or rather drift lower took a week but a rally covered almost entire week's fall in a day. So this forces me to adopt an alternate count.
I am expecting Sensex to reach a minimum target of 18750 and in a form of an ENDING DIAGONAL! (yes a 3 wave structure). Lets wait and watch!
ICICI Bank: Is this a start of new up trend??

Today's move was strong and indicates the down move was only a 3 wave structure and not 5 as we were expecting. Please cover all your short positions now! Next few days of price action will tell if this is indeed a start of a new trend up in form of final wave.

Thursday, December 17, 2009

ICICI Bank: An appealing opprtunity! Sensex: Ready to Crack


Banking and Realty sectors have already given a breakdown. Sensex is ready to crack
We are expecting a gap down opening for Sensex tomorrow and it should then move impulsively down
This time we are not expecting any bounce back as last few sessions. Let prices give a confirmation by closing below the trendline
Lets wait and watch!

Sell ICICI Bank with Stop loss of 885, First Target 700!
Prices shall now move down very fast in wave C

Sunday, December 13, 2009

Are you looking for confirming evidences!

Sensex since 2nd of December has not done much and is not trending in any direction
The global market rally / fall did not result in any major movement in the index
Human brains are conditioned to look at evidences that help us satisfy our positions and confirms we are placed in the right direction but please beware a breakout or breakdown is what will be obtained from only from price confirmation
Happened: A strong bounce back in US dollar. We have been mentioning since last few weeks of strong technical bounce back in US dollar and happened EURUSD fall from ~1.51 to 1.46 in just a week's time
This should result in global sell off across different assets but when will it happen only price confirmation will tell!
On balance volume indicator is drifting downwards indicating volumes on downside is little more than that on up side
But we still wait for "Price Confirmation" in downward direction. First confirmation on downside will be obtained below 16900 and later below 16500
So wait for prices to prove its direction and STOP looking at other evidences that provides an inner emotional satisfaction!

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Too Much of Energy Consumed!!


Sensex rally since 3rd of November looks more corrective than impulsive
The rally looks to have consumed too much of energy and is ready for exhaustion! It is like more and more fuel is consumed but the speed is constantly reducing
Look at MACD - momentum has lost considerable energy!
A break below 16500 will provide a good confirmation and this time we are expecting shorts to be richly rewarded
By trapping the bears again this time on Dubai news Mr. Market has succeeded turning even more number of bears into bulls who are the final participants in the rally before an intermediate down trend
A move above 17500 will warrant for an alternative count - 3rd of 5th wave to start and prices shall rally fast after that - A low probable scenario, in midst of weakening global commodity markets - Oil, Gold and strong US dollar
Inverted Chart

Inverted Chart: This is what we would like to see when the markets are ready to rally in upward direction but beware this is a mirror image -- indicating the opposite!