Thursday, October 22, 2009

Negative bias on Sensex but minor positive on Hindalco!


Sensex has followed exactly the paths that we have shown (blue line) since last few weeks
Prices today decisively closed below the trendline connecting March lows
This can be a start of a bigger correction as wave count also looks complete
A move below 16600 will confirm that we are in for a major correction atleast till our target zone (as shown)
One can initiate a short positions now with a stop loss at wave (5 ) high, Risk reward ratio looks quite appealing!

We are expecting a final wave Z up in Hindalco
We have already completed 5 waves of wave Z and I expect this to be a 7 wave move
A small minor retracement was expected which happened today and now a final up thrust near 150 levels is where this entire rally since March shall end
Copper & Gold has also given an upward breakout out of triangle. So the final rally shall end soon in commodities now
Hindalco is a stock within Sensex and we have negative view for Sensex but minor positive view for Hindalco
We sometimes have to look stock movements independently irrespective of its correlation or Beta with index
After all Beta is also not a perfect measurement of risk as we need to consider times when deviations happen in either direction and it is just an average of large sample which gives us 1 single value
Also main reason for tracking Hindalco so closely is -- lately it is acting as a good proxy for tracking commodities: metals and this is the space which we expect to lead the fall globally !

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