Friday, October 16, 2009

Nearing the end - Rally since last Oct 08'


We mentioned in our previous blog that "we are expecting wave 5 of 5 to rally atleast till previous highs - 17200" and we also mentioned in September 09 blog probable target for Sensex near 17450 levels.
Sensex made a high of 17350, falling only a 100 points short of our target shown in September
Prices can now turn anytime soon but a short position shall be initiated only on break of the trendline shown from March lows


Prices have rallied so far in a 3 wave up and are showing signs of exhaustion but we cannot rule out the possibility of rally near 140 - 145 levels
We do not have any preferred wave count as of now
A short position can be initiated if prices break below 126!
We are also keeping a close watch on US dollar index (DXY) and Copper
Bottom and top picking is something I leave to most experienced traders but we shall obtain confirmation from DXY (Dollar index shall bottom out) as Hindalco starts cracking down!
DXY impulsive move above 76.50 - 77 is what we want to see which will induce weakness in global commodities and in turn in Hindalco

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