Friday, September 4, 2009

DJIA - An end of an "ERA"!

I thought of analyzing other markets till the time Indian markets test our patience!
Please observe since 1929 DJIA has moved in the bullish channel with utter precision and a throwover in the final Cycle degree wave V
The end of rally in early 2000 represents an end of an era i.e. not only end of a Cycle degree wave but of a super cycle degree that started somewhere around 1800s
Also we are in Wave C of an ABC correction that started after wave (V) of supercycle degree
When dealing with waves of such degree it is imperative to use log scale and wave measurements in percentage terms & not arithmetically
As per "Elliott wave principle" stated "impulse wave relationships usually occur in percentage terms"
The modest target for DJIA is 3500 and can even go further down in the territory of previous Wave IV. I will not be surprised even if it reaches in 1000 range. "We are dealing with supercycle corrections here"
This same explanation is valid for some of the other developed markets as well
Also momentum tools helps in wave counting, if used wisely. We can get classic divergences when in wave 5, if in wave 3 we should see a clear breakdown in momentum -- staying in extreme territories
The above interpretation is as per my understanding and may have other probable scenarios

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